In some of the early reactions to the wild card round of this season’s NFL playoffs, an early overreaction suggests that the Dallas Cowboys fire head coach Mike McCarthy and promote defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the head job. After all, the Cowboys’ defense was significantly better this season thanks to Quinn’s work, and McCarthy has not shown that he knows how to manage time outs, let alone offensive line substitutions. The team set a playoff record with 14 penalties in their loss to the 49ers. We predicted that Dallas would lose to San Francisco; in the first five games of the wild card round, we went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh’s failure to cover the only misstep.
Take a look at our NFL betting thoughts about sure losers in the upcoming divisional round.
NFL News: Sure Losers for the Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4)
Saturday, January 22 | 4:30 pm ET, CBS
Cincinnati comes in on the momentum of the team’s first postseason win in 31 years, although their 26-19 win over Las Vegas seemed to turn out a lot more closely than it should have. Next up is a visit to Tennessee, a team that loves to run the ball – whether they have Derrick Henry or not. Even without Henry, though, they went 6-3 without him in the lineup. They do expect to have him back, but it remains to be seen how healthy he will be. His status is something you should check before locking in your wager.
The Bengals went 4-2 in the AFC North – with both losses coming to Cleveland, one in Week 18 that featured reserves from both sides – and 6-5 against everyone else. That yielded them a division win, but the team struggled against the run, and the Titans can pound the ball. The Titans have beaten the likes of Buffalo and Kansas City – and lost to the Jets and the Texans. Right now, the Bengals are on a slightly hotter trajectory, and so I’m taking them with the value.
Titans to lose (ATS): Bet the Game Today
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Saturday, January 22 | 8:15 pm ET, FOX
We kept reading about how dominant the Dallas offense was supposed to be – and it was statistically, in terms of points and yards. However, the 102 points that the Cowboys put up against undermanned Washington and Philadelphia teams down the stretch may have skewed those numbers a bit. Green Bay’s offense is the real deal, with Aaron Rodgers looking for Davante Adams and Allen Lazards when he is not handing the ball off to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. It’s an offense that does not make many mistakes, and a defense that is opportunistic enough to get wins.
These teams met early in the regular season, with the Packers falling behind in the last minute before scoring on a walkoff field goal. San Francisco comes in having won five of six, and on the road they only have two losses this season. However, most of their road games have been in conditions much more hospitable than the blast chiller they can expect in Green Bay. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is playing lights out right now.
San Francisco to lose (SU & ATS: Bet the Game Today
Arizona Cardinals / L.A. Rams winner at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Sunday, January 23 | 3:00 pm ET, NBC
I’m not sure that either side here can be termed a sure loser. I like the Bills a lot after seeing them post seven touchdowns against New England, but will the Bills have the same intensity now that they’re not playing an AFC East opponent who has owned the division for years and is now in rebuilding mode? Yes, this is the Bills’ chance to avenge last year’s AFC Championship loss at Arrowhead, but also remember that Buffalo tends to follow up big performances with head-shaking letdowns.
I do think that this game will feature a lot of scoring – although you’ll want to look at the weather forecast closer to this game before you bet the ranch on the over. The opening point total is 49.5, and I see this turning into a bit of a track meet, but right now you can expect the temperatures to be around freezing with partly cloudy skies. If precipitation enters the equation, then things could change a lot.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Bet the Game Today
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