Lamar Jackson has led his team to more regular-season wins (58) than any other NFL quarterback at his age (27). If the votes go as expected, he will be the youngest player to win multiple NFL MVP trophies. However, in his six seasons in the NFL, he has only managed a 1-3 record in the postseason, with four total touchdowns against seven turnovers. There is only one other quarterback in NFL history who has won over 50 games in his first six seasons but has fewer postseason wins, and that is Andy Dalton (0-4). Coming into the 2023 season, Jackson finally got the contract extension he wanted, and he got a pair of quality wide receivers for the first time. He also got an offensive coordinator, in Todd Monken, who would call the right plays to boost his passing game. Can he turn these changes into postseason glory? His next test comes on Saturday when the Houston Texans visit M&T Bank Stadium. Check out our thoughts about each NFL Divisional Round Games as you plan your sports betting.
NFL Divisional Round Sure Winners & Losers
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
When: Saturday, January 20, 4:30 pm ET, ESPN/ABC
NFL Odds: Texans (+8) at Ravens (O/U 45.5)
This game is a rematch of the Week 1 matchup that saw the Ravens roll, 25-9. In that game, Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud got sacked five times, and given that the Ravens led the league in sacks this year, you can expect to see their ferocious pass rush again. Stroud’s confidence and execution have improved dramatically since that loss, but the Ravens still only allowed 18 touchdown passes on the season – and swiped 18 interceptions. However, let’s also consider the Houston defense, which limited the Ravens to just 265 yards of total offense in Week 1 and forced a pair of turnovers, and which limited the Browns’ rushing output to just 56 yards in last week’s wild-card laugher. I see the Browns winning, but this line has shrunk by a point and a half since it opened for a reason. Texans to cover.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
When: Saturday, January 20, 8:15 pm ET, FOX
NFL Odds: Packers (+10) at 49ers (O/U 50.5)
This line has grown by a half-point since it opened; this year, the 49ers are 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread when favored by double digits. Yes, Green Bay made Dallas look silly, but remember that the early 27-0 lead shrunk to a 48-32 margin of victory, and the Cowboys gained 510 yards of total offense. What worked against Dallas? Forcing turnovers on defense. Brock Purdy has a much better track record in ball security than Dak Prescott does, and they have a legitimate running game keyed by Christian McCaffrey. This will soften the middle of the field for George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. On defense, the 49ers can apply pressure to Jordan Love, and if they jump out to an early lead, the Packers will have to abandon the running game, which they used to gash the Cowboys. 49ers to win and cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
When: Sunday, January 21, 3:00 pm ET, NBC
NFL Odds: Buccaneers (+6) at Lions (O/U 48.5)
Detroit beat Tampa Bay down in Florida during Week 6, 20-6. Jared Goff threw for 353 yards and two scores, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had a dozen catches for 124 yards and one of those TD catches. In the wild-card victory over the Rams, that pair was on fire in the first half and connected on enough plays in the second half to eke out the win. Goff posted a 107.9 passer rating at Ford Field this season. The Buccaneers have a fired-up Baker Mayfield this time around, but the Lions have a fearsome pass rush and will tee off on Mayfield if the Bucs struggle in the running game like they did in Week 6. Tampa Bay did cover in eight of the 11 games in which they were the underdog, and they have a lot of momentum coming in. Buccaneers to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, January 21, 6:30 pm ET, CBS
NFL Odds: Chiefs (+2.5) at Bills (O/U 45.5)
In Week 14, Buffalo beat the Chiefs, 20-17, but the Chiefs have stopped two Buffalo playoff runs. Now, Patrick Mahomes makes his first playoff start as the road quarterback. The Bills went 7-1 straight up and against the spread as a home favorite in 2023, but the Chiefs are 7-0-1 against the spread as a road dog since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018. The key will be Buffalo’s ball security. When Josh Allen minimizes the turnovers, the Bills are almost impossible to stop. However, they turn the ball over a lot. Can the Chiefs take advantage? Bills to win and cover.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl 58 before the NFL Divisional Round Games
| Team Odds | |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers +175 | Baltimore Ravens +275 |
| Buffalo Bills +450 | Kansas City Chiefs +800 |
| Detroit Lions +1000 | Green Bay Packers +2800 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3300 | Houston Texans +3500 |
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NFL Divisional Round Games
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