The end of the NFL regular season always brings changes among the ranks of head coaches. One of the most surprising moves this week came in Seattle, where the Seahawks moved Pete Carroll into an advisory role after 14 seasons as head coach. Carroll led the team to a Super Bowl title in 2013 and almost got the repeat the next year, falling to New England in the title game. Since then, though, while the Seahawks have made the playoffs six times, they haven’t advanced to a conference championship. This season, the defense took a step back, and Geno Smith struggled with injuries at quarterback. A rebuild may be in the works, and it looks like the team wants to do it with a new coach. Going into NFL Wild Card Games Weekend, let’s look at your best NFL betting pick for each showdown.
Sure Winners and Losers from the NFL Wild Card Games
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
When: Saturday, January 13, 4:30 pm ET, NBC
NFL Odds: Cleveland -145 / Houston +125 / O/U 44.5
Don’t look at the Browns’ 36-22 drubbing of the Texans in Houston three weeks ago as a preview for this week’s matchup. C.J. Stroud missed that game for the Texans, and their defense also failed to pressure Joe Flacco. Stroud has a 23:5 TD:INT ratio this season, but expect the Browns to harass him early and often with their pass rush. When Stroud takes at least four sacks in a game, Houston is 1-4 straight up, and you can expect Myles Garrett, who grew up in Texas, to give maximum effort in his playoff debut. Browns to win and cover.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Saturday, January 13, 8:00 pm ET, Peacock
NFL Odds: Kansas City -190 / Miami +160 / O/U 43.5
If you think this will turn into a track meet, you haven’t looked at the weather forecast, which calls for a game-time temperature of zero degrees. The Dolphins were only 4-4 away from home this season, and they lost to the Chiefs by a touchdown in Germany. The Bills were able to shut down the Miami offense last week, and Kansas City limited Tyreek Hill to just 62 yards on eight catches when they met in the regular season. I see the Chiefs freezing the Dolphins out in this one. Chiefs to win and cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) at Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, January 14, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
NFL Odds: Buffalo -500 / Pittsburgh +380 / O/U 35.5
The Bills went 1-5 against the spread when favored by more than a touchdown this season. However, Josh Allen is 3-1 straight up as a starter against Pittsburgh, and he won’t have T.J. Watt (knee) chasing him around. The Steelers plan to keep the hot hand at quarterback by starting Mason Rudolph, who has found ways to deliver touchdowns the last three weeks. Pittsburgh went 5-0 straight up as an underdog of at least three points this season, and I see them keeping this one close as well. Steelers to cover.
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
When: Sunday, January 14, 4:30 pm ET, FOX
NFL Odds: Dallas -350 / Green Bay +280 / O/U 50.5
Mike McCarthy has guided the Cowboys to three straight 12-5 seasons, but he has a record of just 1-2 in the playoffs here. Now he has a scary-fast quarterback to take on in Jordan Love, but the Packers just went 4-5 on the road this season, even though Love posted a combined 94.6 passer rating in those games. The defense has a hard time getting pressure and covering receivers, and the Dallas passing game is pretty strong. The Cowboys’ pass rush should be able to force Love into a mistake or two, and the Cowboys’ secondary is better than it was last year. But can Dallas really win a playoff game this convincingly? Packers to cover.
L.A. Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
When: Sunday, January 14, 8:15 pm ET, NBC
NFL Odds: Detroit -175 / Los Angeles +150 / O/U 51.5
The Lions were an NFL-best 12-5 against the spread this season, and they finished 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. Matthew Stafford brings pressure in his return to Ford Field, and the Rams’ rushing defense is clamping down, permitting just 86 rushing yards per contest in their recent four-game winning streak. Jared Goff has a home passer rating of 107.9 and has become terrific at ball security. Tight end Sam LaPorta (knee) is out, but that might just mean more production for Amon-Ra St. Brown. The problems for the Lions begin in their secondary, though, and Stafford has Cooper Kupp back and healthy alongside Puka Nacua. Rams to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: Monday, January 15, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN, ESPN+ and ABC
NFL Odds: Philadelphia -150 / Tampa Bay +130 / O/U 44.5
A 1-5 finish was not what Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni had in mind, but the Eagles are still in the postseason despite a -8 turnover ratio in their last six games. Over that same stretch, the Buccaneers have gone 5-1 with a +4 turnover ratio. The Eagles’ secondary has been getting torched, and Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is hot right now. Buccaneers to cover.
Super Bowl 58 Winner Odds
| San Francisco 49ers | +200 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +330 |
| Buffalo Bills | +550 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +800 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1600 |
| Miami Dolphins | +1800 |
| Detroit Lions | +2000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +2800 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +3300 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6600 |
| Houston Texans | +4500 |
| Green Bay Packers | +8000 |
| Pittburgh Steelers | +10000 |
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