On October 6, the Houston Texans took on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. At this point, the Chiefs had Patrick Mahomes II back at quarterback, but he was not enough. Deshaun Watson threw for 280 yards and a score, finding the end zone twice more with his legs, and the Texans mounted a comeback to win, 31-24. Carlos Hyde scored a touchdown while running for 116 yards, making a point to the team that traded him to Kansas City in the preseason.
At the time, Mahomes was still slowed by a sore left ankle, and Tyreek Hill had just returned from a collarbone fracture. Since then, the Chiefs have healed, and they rolled to an AFC West title and the second seed in the playoffs.
The Texans won the AFC South and held off the Buffalo Bills in the wild card round, and now they return to face the Chiefs again. Can they win twice at Arrowhead in the same season? Or will the Chiefs return the favor and send the Texans home for the offseason?
Texans vs Chiefs 2020 AFC Divisional Round Lines & Game Prediction
- When: Saturday, January 11, 2020, 3:05 pm ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
- TV: CBS
- Radio: Westwood One
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFL Divisional Round Odds: Kansas City -9.5 / O/U 49
Why should you bet on Houston?
Houston showed some real grit in the second half of their wild card win over Buffalo. The Bills went into the locker room at halftime up 16-0, as Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen had (thanks to a trick play) more receiving yards than Houston star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. However, after halftime, Deshaun Watson put the team on his back, throwing for a touchdown and running for another. The Bills were able to force overtime with a late field goal, but then Watson led the winning drive that ended in a field goal. Allen and Watson led their respective teams in rushing — the first time that opposing quarterbacks had led their teams in rushing in a playoff game since 1950.
On the season, Watson threw for 3,852 yards, 26 scores and a dozen picks. Hopkins was his top target, gaining 1,165 receiving yards and scoring seven times. Hyde had a terrific season rushing the ball, rolling for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. If you like Houston — and they are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games as the underdog — you see their grinding defense slowing down the Chiefs and Watson willing his team to scores in the second half to push to a cover — or even a win.
Why should you put your money on Kansas City?
The Chiefs finished the 2019 regular season with plenty of momentum, rolling into the playoffs on a six-game winning streak. Their win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17 (coupled with the Patriots’ home loss to Miami) earned them a bye. Mahomes’ ankle is healthy, so he will have a lot more mobility than he did against Houston in Week 6. Houston’s passing defense permitted 33 touchdown passes on the season, sixth worst in the league. If the Houston pass rush, led by J.J. Watt (freshly back from a torn pectoral injury), can get to Mahomes, Houston could stay close, but if he has time in the pocket, he could shred the Texans’ secondary.
Mahomes did not put up the video-game numbers that he posted in 2019, with just 3,857 yards, 25 scores and four interceptions. He missed significant time with a knee injury, with Matt Moore coming on in relief, but tailback LeSean McCoy picked up some of the slack, running for 465 yards and four scores. If you like the Chiefs here, you see them managing the late parts of the game better than they did in Week 6 and the Kansas City offense moving more efficiently.
Final Score Prediction
Houston’s Week 6 win was impressive, but with a healthy Mahomes, the Chiefs have the tools in place to end Houston’s season. I predict a final score of Kansas City 30, Houston 20.
