We’re still about six weeks away from the 2025 NFL Draft, so let’s start with some Tips for NFL Offseason betting, but free agency is in full swing, and while the Dallas Cowboys are (once again) standing pat in some sort of weird belief that the players they have will somehow elevate their games without an infusion of more quality talent at key positions, many other teams are actively working to better themselves ahead of the fall season.
The Indianapolis Colts’ signing of quarterback Daniel Jones for $14 million raises eyebrows. He will compete with Anthony Richardson, who is refining his mechanics with the same coach that aided Josh Allen’s 2020 breakout.
The Jets signed quarterback Justin Fields to a two-year, $40 million contract after the Steelers didn’t guarantee him the 2025 starting role. Fields ranked tenth in scrambles in 2024 and third in 2023.
The Steelers also lost a key tailback as Najee Harris is headed to Los Angeles after the Chargers inked him to a one-year deal. He could be the team’s featured back unless the Chargers focus on tailback in the draft or bring J.K. Dobbins back.
What Tips for NFL Offseason Betting are available?
As you start to think about how to incorporate the NFL offseason into your sports betting, take a look at our thoughts.
What NFL offseason betting markets are available?
Some of the most commonly wagered props have to do with NFL futures
Super Bowl LX sees the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs as co-favorites at +600, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (+650), Buffalo Bills (+700), and Detroit Lions (+850). Futures wagers are available for conference championships and divisions, with win total odds pending due to roster changes.
You can also bet on the NFL Draft
The Tennessee Titans currently possess the first overall draft pick, likely tradable for talent. The frontrunner for this selection is Cam Ward, quarterback from Miami (FL) (-320). Following him is defensive end Abdul Carter from Penn State (+210). The top five also includes Travis Hunter (+1700), Shedeur Sanders (+2600), and Jaxson Dart (+7500).
Free agency props are another option for you
As players sign with new teams, bets change accordingly. Sam Darnold is joining Seattle, and Davante Adams will play for the Rams. Aaron Rodgers remains a key figure in betting discussions, with the Steelers and Giants as co-favorites at +125. The Minnesota Vikings follow at +350, now featuring untested J.J. McCarthy after Darnold’s departure. McCarthy, a national champion with Michigan, was sidelined for his rookie season due to a meniscus injury.
^How do NFL offseason odds work?
Odds on these props work the same way as wagering on any moneyline
If you think Aaron Rodgers will follow Brett Favre’s path from the Packers to the Jets to the Vikings, the Vikings’ moneyline is +350. A $100 bet would yield $350 in winnings, plus your original bet back, totaling $450 if he joins the Vikings.
A negative moneyline, like Cam Ward’s -320 for the 2025 NFL Draft, indicates the amount to bet to win $100. A $320 bet returns $420, while positive moneylines suggest less probable outcomes, leading to greater potential payouts relative to the wager.
^How do I understand NFL futures odds during the offseason?
Moneyline numbers work the same way, regardless of the type of bet. Whether it’s picking a team to win the Super Bowl or repeat champions, the moneyline concept is the same.
During the offseason, the numbers will change as teams sign (and lose) free agents. After the NFL Draft, those numbers will change again. Nearly every team expects players in the first two or three rounds to make an immediate impact. If a team in doubt makes good signings and selects key contributors in the draft, their odds of winning their division, conference and Super Bowl will adjust.
^Tips for NFL Offseason provided by Xbet
How does the NFL Draft impact NFL offseason betting lines?
The NFL Draft has a seismic impact on many other offseason betting lines. Let’s say that you find a prop that has Lamar Jackson leading the NFL in passing yardage next year, and let’s say that the Ravens somehow end up landing Travis Hunter in the draft. He was one of the most electric players on that side of the ball in college football this past season, and the Ravens have become notorious for failing to surround Jackson with elite talent at wide receiver. Drafting Hunter would boost Jackson’s odds of leading the league in passing because, once he catches up to NFL game speed, he should be a target that Jackson can find.
Impact of the NFL Draft and Free Agency and Trades
NFL teams’ odds shift when acquiring veterans via trades or free agency, as player impact is usually predictable. An exception is Nick Foles’s success with the Eagles. For instance, the Colts signed Daniel Jones, expecting a strong mobile quarterback despite pressure-related challenges.
But with the NFL Draft, it’s sometimes hard to tell what an NFL team is getting. Consider the differences between Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams in their NFL rookie campaigns. Daniels, fresh off a Heisman Trophy season at LSU, took over the starting quarterback position Washington and rode that learning curve all the way to the NFC Championship, a journey that included a shocking rout of the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the divisional playoffs.
Then there’s Williams
He joined the Chicago Bears after winning the Heisman Trophy at USC, where he was surrounded by top receivers like Keenan Allen. However, he struggled to lead the team as effectively as Daniels did. Issues with the Bears’ offensive line and a less talented receiving corps compared to the Commanders contributed to this. While Daniels has risen to the top of the league, there’s still hope for Williams, who needs to grow to succeed at this level.
Going into 2025, there was a lot optimism behind both players, but a lot of sports bettors thought that Williams and the Bears would be more disruptive in the NFC North than Daniels and the Commanders would be in the NFC East, but those ideas went into the dumpster by the midpoint of the 2024 campaign.
^Tips for NFL Offseason: What are the best offseason strategies?
As with betting at any time of the year, it’s important to bet with intention and strategy rather than emotion. A lot of bettors have favorite teams, but if you let your emotional attachments color your betting, you’ll lose money. Instead, make your bets on the basis of value rather than loyalty. Don’t pay attention to media hype and public emotion. Instead, do your research and find objective data that supports your wagering decisions.
To capitalize on perceived imbalances in betting lines, place your bets early to avoid public influence on outcomes. Focus on key metrics during your research for futures props like division or Super Bowl winners. Track YPP (yards per play) for insights into offensive and defensive strength, monitor turnover differential for ball security advantages, and consider DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) for overall team efficiency assessment.
^How do I manage my bankroll when betting on the NFL offseason?
What is your bankroll?
It’s the amount of money you’ve set aside for sports betting. Bankroll management refers to how you organize and use your money so that you have enough funds to cover the bets you want to make without endangering any of the money you actually need for your living expenses. Here are some tips that you can use for bankroll management, not just for the NFL offseason but in any betting situation:
Don’t let bad luck send you into the ditch
You will lose bets. You will lose bets that you thought were sure things. That’s why it’s called gambling – because nothing is certain. Don’t get angry or frustrated when this happens. If you do get angry or frustrated, don’t let those emotions pull you into poorly researched wagers on impulse. That’s how you end up sending good money after bad.
Figure out your unit bet stake and stick to it
Once you know how much money is in your NFL offseason bankroll, figure out how much you want to wager on each bet, and stick to that decision. In most cases, smart bettors put down between 1% and 3% of their bankroll on any one wager.
Look for value
The Tennessee Titans are in need of a starting quarterback following Ryan Tannehill’s departure. Management doesn’t see Will Levis as their future QB after a lackluster 2024 season. While they are likely to draft Cam Ward, the -320 moneyline offers little value. This is the same front office that misjudged coach Mike Vrabel and made questionable trades, raising concerns they may opt for different choices over Ward, diminishing the worth of taking the risk.
^Tips for NFL Offseason: How do I use NFL offseason trends to inform betting decisions?
The easiest way to do this is to follow free agency decisions and decide if they change a team’s odds for division, conference or Super Bowl champion in a way that goes against movement in the line, or merits more movement.
Example
The Seattle Seahawks traded Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders and signed Sam Darnold from Minnesota as his replacement. Despite Darnold’s strong previous season, he struggled in key games against the Rams, particularly in the playoffs, demonstrating that he tends to throw high under pressure.
Darnold led Minnesota to a 14-3 record but suffered two significant losses to the Rams and failed to compete against Goff in a crucial NFC North game. This raises doubts about his impact on the Seahawks. Evaluating whether Seattle is rightly priced as a potential NFC West champion is a question worth contemplating.
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Tips for NFL Offseason
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