The New England Patriots just released Cam Newton after one season, as Bill Belichick has decided that Alabama product Mac Jones is ready to start — and that the team does not need any insurance at the backup position beyond Jarrett Stidham, who starred at Auburn but who has stumbled in his brief NFL appearances in mop-up action for the Patriots. Meanwhile, the timeless career of Tom Brady continues: he wrapped up his first season in Tampa Bay with a Super Bowl championship and appears ready to keep things going for the foreseeable future in Florida. How long will Brady play? From a sports betting perspective, that is an important question that has a lot to do with the balance of power in the NFC.
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NFL News: Tom Brady is Going for Another Ring. Will He Retire Then?
Back in May, Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht went on “The Rich Eisen Show” and indicated that Brady had not provided any hints about his retirement time line. On the show, Licht said, “I told him if he wants to play until he’s 50, and he’s still playing and he feels like he can still play, he can play until he’s 50.” Brady already has seven Super Bowl rings after winning this most recent one at the age of 43.
But can Brady really last that long? In an interview with Jori Epstein of USA Today, Brady responded to Licht’s quote by saying, “50? That’s a long time. Even for me, that’s a long time.” He went further, saying, “I’ve always said 45 was the age that I wanted to reach and that was my goal.” If Brady sticks to that goal, he would play this season and next before hanging up his cleats. That matches the length of his current contract, a two-year deal that he inked in March.
In the offseason, Brady had knee surgery, indicating that the mileage is building up on his legs. With the team set to return all 22 starters in their title defense, keeping an eye on his health will be very important. The backups on the Tampa Bay roster include Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask — a veteran and a rookie — both of which represent a significant drop in terms of production.
So the quick answer seems to be “no” — at least if the question has to do with the Buccaneers repeating as champions. It sounds like two years will be what Brady has left, but even if he leaves after this year, he already has made NFL history for longevity. He is one of only two quarterbacks ever to win a Super Bowl with two different teams, joining Peyton Manning on that list. Manning won titles with Indianapolis and Denver, but that Super Bowl win with the Broncos was an outlier, as Manning had clearly declined in terms of arm strength and mobility. Instead, the Broncos rode an amazing defense to their championship.
Brady’s ride to a championship with a second team was much more impressive from a quarterbacking perspective. He went from the Patriots to the Buccaneers through a virtual off-season — and then he went out and threw 40 touchdown passes and picked up 4,633 passing yards. The Buccaneers did not win their division, but they got hot when the time was right and won three road playoff games before routing Kansas City in Super Bowl LV.
From an historical perspective, Brady should be out of football by now. The odds against a player maintaining health, strength and mobility as a starting quarterback into his 40s are significant; the odds against a player competing at an elite level to the age of 43 are even smaller. In an age of advanced information about nutrition and performance-based exercise, Brady has clearly taken advantage. At this point, it’s Brady’s job as long as he wants it — and I don’t see that desire waning after one more season.
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