As the beginning of the 2021 regular season in the NFL approaches, sports betting enthusiasts continue to look at the matchups in Week 1 — and continue to lay down money. In some cases, the lines have not shifted much, while in others the movement has been significant. In this article, we take a look at some opportunities for you to take advantage of NFL lines that either remain out of balance, in our opinion, or have moved to a point where there is room to win.
NFL News: Top 3 Games for Betting Value in Week 1
Thursday, September 9
Dallas Cowboys (+6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 51.5)
Dallas comes in looking for some redemption after an ugly 6-10 season that saw starting quarterback Dak Prescott go down in Week 5 with a fractured ankle. Even before he went down, though, the team was headed to a 2-3 start despite scoring at least 31 points in four of those five games, thanks to an historically awful defense. The Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator and a host of talented rookies on defense this year, as well as a loaded offense. Even so, I don’t see the Cowboys doing much to slow down the Super Bowl champions.
On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay returns all of their starters from their world championship team from a year ago. Their offense was able to put up 31 points on Kansas City in the Super Bowl and was dynamic for the last two-thirds of the 2020 regular season as well. There are some teams that come out of a championship less than hungry, but Tom Brady is not wired that way, and his team won’t be either. This game could come down to a last-minute drive that leads to a Bucs win, so the line might not hold, but I feel confident on the over, as I see both teams getting into the high 20s, if not even more. Take the over.
Sunday, September 12
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Houston Texans (45.5)
This game opened at Jacksonville (-1.5) on a number of betting sites and has slid the Jags’ way by a point since then. There are several reasons for this, beginning with the doubt that Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson will be on the field. He has demanded a trade (and could hold out), but he has also been sued by a couple dozen massage therapists who claim sexual misconduct, which remains under investigation by the Houston Police Department and the NFL.
This means that Tyrod Taylor is likely the Opening Day starter for the Texans. He is a serviceable quarterback who led the Buffalo Bills to their first playoff appearance since their run in the 1990s, but he is not a gunslinger who will lead his team to victory. Jacksonville shows up with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Normally, those are not signs of victory for a team, especially on the road, but the absolute mess that the Houston Texans have become has a terrific chance to post the worst record in the NFL this season — starting with their home opener. Take Jacksonville to win and cover.
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at New England Patriots (45.5)
New England made improvements to their offense and defense in the off-season, so the 7-9 record from a year ago should shift to the winning side. The Dolphins had an 11-5 record a year ago but could not grab a wild card out of the loaded AFC. Tua Tagovailoa will lead the Miami offense again this season, but he won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick to come off the bench if things go awry. Bill Belichick should be able to put together a defensive approach that will frustrate Tagovailoa, who was way too fast to check down and dump off short passes a year ago.
The Pats will likely either start Cam Newton or Mac Jones at quarterback, depending on the way preseason games and training camp go. The Dolphins have the better defense, even if the Patriots have the better defensive mind (in Belichick). So as the action shifts toward the Patriots (this line opened at Miami +2), take advantage by wagering on the Dolphins here. Take Miami to cover.
NFL Betting Odds
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