NFL News: Must-Bet Games for Week 9
→ Sunday, November 6
L.A. Chargers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
(1:00 pm ET, FOX)
It’s an interesting call to make the Chargers a road favorite against the Falcons. Atlanta is 3-1 straight up at home, and they are 3-3 in one-score contests. It is true that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has posted a 102.7 QB rating on the road, with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio, and the Chargers do come in off the bye week. Atlanta (4-4) currently leads the NFC South after beating Carolina at home in overtime, and they have also beaten Seattle and San Francisco – two contenders in the NFC West. The Falcons’ defense has shown some problems when it comes to holding leads, and ball security has been a problem when Marcus Mariota has had to lead a dynamic passing offense. Against the Panthers, he had two picks to go along with his three touchdown passes, and the defense gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter.
The Chargers lost to Seattle before the bye, and that loss was all on their defense, which permitted 6.4 yards per play and 24 first downs. The offense was productive, with 329 total yards (276 passing), and the team made 21 first downs. However, Herbert could not keep up with what the defense was giving up to the Seahawks. The Falcons have a more steady pace on offense and depend less on big plays, which should make this game closer. Even so, I like the Falcons as they continue to improve. Atlanta to cover.
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) at Chicago Bears
(1:00 pm ET, CBS)
Usually, when you hear about warm-weather or dome-stadium teams heading to colder parts of the country for road games, you also hear about how poorly those teams do when traveling in those situations. For the Miami Dolphins, though, visits to Chicago’s Soldier Field do not apply, as the Dolphins are 4-1 all-time in the Windy City. Chicago looked terrific in New England a week ago Monday, rolling to a big win, as Justin Fields finally looked like he had figured out how to master the RPO offense at the NFL level. That represents major progress for a team that has been in search of a franchise quarterback for decades. However, while the defense was able to squelch the Patriots, they were not able to stop Dallas, as the Cowboys ran all over the Bears last week.
Miami brings a high-octane offense to Chicago. Raheem Mostert is not an elite running back, but he can do damage if the Bears haven’t figured out the problems from the Dallas game. There are also two Pro Bowl-level receivers running routes in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The Bears have a good enough pass rush to make Tua Tagovailoa hurry, but they may not have the containment on defense to keep Mostert and Tagovailoa from turning in big plays on the ground. This could easily turn into a track meet, and the Bears don’t do well in track meets. Miami to win and cover.
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) at New England Patriots
(1:00 pm ET, CBS)
The Matt Ryan experiment has already come to an end in Indianapolis, and Sam Ehlinger will start at quarterback the rest of the season. The offense has been dreadful, averaging just 10.5 points per game on the road in 2022. The Patriots have Mac Jones back, although that might not be as good a bit of news as you might think. The Patriots did hold off the Jets last week, but Jones had one pick-six wiped off after a roughing the passer penalty, and the Jets also dropped another interception. The Colts do have a stout defense, but it’s hard to see Ehlinger outworking a defense organized by Bill Belichick. Patriots to win and cover.
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