With Week 17 often featuring top teams resting many of their starters ahead of the playoffs, Week 16 is often the last week in the season when all 32 teams will be playing with maximum effort in terms of getting the win. This year, Week 16 begins with a game on Christmas Day, followed by three games on Saturday and then the rest on Sunday on Monday.
Take a look at our picks for the top NFL betting opportunities in the league’s action this weekend.
NFL News: Top Betting Games for Week 16
Friday, December 25
Minnesota Vikings (+7) at New Orleans Saints (O/U 50 ½) (4:30 pm ET, FOX / NFL)
The Minnesota Vikings have had an up-and-down season, starting 1-5 but then finding the running game and pushing to 6-6 before dropping two in a row. They visit the New Orleans Saints, who have also lost two in a row. The Vikings must win in order to avoid postseason elimination, while the Saints must win if they want to retain a shot at the top seed in the NFC heading into the playoffs.
Dalvin Cook has rumbled for 1,484 yards and 15 scores in 14 games for the Vikings this season. When Kirk Cousins has held up his end on offense, the Vikings have prospered, as he has 29 touchdown passes. However, he has also made too many poor decisions, with 13 interceptions on the season. He has failed to click with rookie Justin Jefferson on multiple occasions this season, so that’s an area of improvement for 2021. The defense has also been iffy, permitting 27.7 points per game. Harrison Smith has four interceptions, and Yannick Ngakoue leads the team with five sacks, but the coverage has been poor at just the wrong times this season.
The Saints got Drew Brees back last week against the Chiefs, and after a series in which he looked off, he got his timing back and held his own with Patrick Mahomes. With Michael Thomas returning to join Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara in the passing game, the Saints are once again a dangerous offense. On defense, they only allow 21.2 points per game, thanks in large part to the 12 ½ sacks that Trey Hendrickson has posted. But can the Saints stop losing to Minnesota in clutch games? I like Minnesota to cover.
Sunday, December 27
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (44) (1:00 pm ET, CBS)
Both teams really need this win to improve their playoff positioning, as the Colts still trail the Tennessee Titans due to tiebreakers in the AFC South, and the Steelers are in danger of having the Cleveland Browns catch them in the AFC North. The Colts have won three in a row, following up a home loss to Tennessee with a pair of wins over Houston, sandwiched around a win at Las Vegas. Pittsburgh has dropped three straight, losing at home to Washington and then at Buffalo and Cincinnati.
I’ve been hard on Philip Rivers in this space this season, expecting that he would send the Colts to some tough defeats with bad interceptions, as was his habit with the Chargers. However, he has a respectable 22:9 TD:INT ratio and has avoided bad decisions. Tailback Jonathan Taylor has been solid, with 842 yards and seven scores. On defense, the Colts have had a dominant unit for the most part, thanks to three different pass rushers getting 7 ½ sacks apiece. The Colts have been great on the road, covering in five of seven games outside the Hoosier State.
Ben Roethlisberger has also thrown just nine interceptions, along with 29 touchdown passes. However, as the season has worn on, he has relied too much on the check-down options, allowing teams to stack the box against him and dare him to stretch the field. Until he does that, the Steelers are not likely to return to contender status. I like Indianapolis to win and cover.
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