Week 17 is an interesting one when it comes to sports betting, because you have top teams that rest their starters, with more on the line in the playoffs than in a regular-season finale that has no bearing on their seeding. You also have some teams who are playing for their playoff lives. In the Pittsburgh-Cleveland matchup, you have a Browns team that must win to clinch a playoff spot against a Pittsburgh team resting Ben Roethlisberger and other starters. Normally, Aaron Rodgers would probably have the week off, but there is only one bye per conference this year, and the Packers must beat Chicago to get that bye. The Bears, on the other hand, must win to get into the playoffs, which should make for an intense matchup in a storied rivalry.
Take a look at our top two NFL betting picks for this weekend.
NFL News: NFL News: Top Games to Bet On This Weekend
Sunday, January 3, 2021
Pittsburgh (+9) at Cleveland (O/U 42.5) (1:00 pm ET, CBS)
The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Cleveland to renew the oldest rivalry in the AFC. The Browns and Steelers have clashed 136 times since 1950. In the early years, the Browns dominated things, going 31-9 over the first two decades. However, starting in 2010, Pittsburgh has gone 17-3-1 in the rivalry, with the tie coming at the start of the 2019 campaign in Cleveland. Pittsburgh (12-3) will not play Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, as they have clinched the AFC North and cannot get a bye, even with a win, so Mason Rudolph will start instead. The Browns (10-5) could have clinched a playoff slot with a win over the Jets last week, but three Baker Mayfield fumbles (and some poor play by the Cleveland secondary) led to an upset loss, and now the Browns must win to clinch a postseason berth.
Pittsburgh had lost three in a row and looked headed to a fourth in the third quarter against Indianapolis, down 24-7. However, Ben Roethlisberger found Diontae Johnson for a long touchdown pass, and all of a sudden the old gunslinger was back, throwing the ball down the field and leading two more scoring drives. Meanwhile, the Colts’ offense just shut down, and the Steelers completed the unlikely comeback to clinch the division.
Cleveland has seen a lot of growth out of Baker Mayfield, and he has usually bounced back well from poor performances. I expect that he will bounce back again with Pittsburgh in town. In his last five games, he has thrown 10 touchdown passes, and he will have all of his wide receivers back. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be there to dent the Pittsburgh defense as well. I like Cleveland to win and cover, since the Steelers aren’t using Big Ben.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at N.Y. Giants (45) (1:00 pm ET, FOX)
The Giants and Cowboys also have a rich history, playing for the 118th time in Week 17. The Cowboys have won the last seven, and they come in with a one-game lead over the Giants in the NFC East. At 6-9, the Cowboys would win the NFC East with a win and a Washington loss on Sunday night; at 5-10, the Giants would take the division if they can win and Washington loses. The Giants have lost three in a row, falling to the Cardinals, Browns and Ravens. The Cowboys have won three in a row, topping the Bengals, 49ers and Eagles, scoring 108 points in those games combined, while also leading the NFL in takeaways over those three games.
Andy Dalton has found his stride once again, throwing for 377 yards, with three completions of more than 50 yards, in the win over Philadelphia. It helps that he has CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup running routes. After watching Troy Pollard run all over San Francisco in Week 15, Ezekiel Elliott returned to the field running with more conviction than he has all season. The defense got three more takeaways against the Eagles, and the Cowboys look like they are peaking in December.
The Giants have Daniel Jones back, but he’s not the same while he’s recovering from ankle and hamstring injuries. Without his speed, he’s not the same danger at quarterback, and he’s not been doing well with avoiding turnovers. The Giants do have a salty defense, but Dallas should be able to wear down the Giants. I like Dallas to win and cover.
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