NFL Week 14 | Coming into their Week 13 showdown with the Denver Broncos, the previously 3-8 Cleveland Browns had won every time they scored more than 18 points. They piled up 32 in Denver, but still lost, 41-32.
Why? Because despite the fact that Browns quarterback Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards – 235 to Jerry Jeudy alone – and four touchdowns, he also threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for costly pick-sixes.
Here’s an interesting fact about Jerry Jeudy’s night, though – 198 of his 235 yards came on targets when he was either considered “open” or “wide open.”
That’s a Next Gen Stats metric dating back to 2016, and no player has gotten more yardage on those types of targets in a game since that metric was first developed.
On defense, a warning sign for the Browns was the fact that Myles Garrett, who came into the game with 10 sacks, had exactly one pressure on 26 pass rush snaps.
The Broncos didn’t even bother sending extra help Garrett’s way that often, as he was only double-teamed on three of those 26 snaps.
Is Father Time coming for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year? We will see.
In the meantime, let’s take a look at some top sports betting picks for Week 14 of the 2024 NFL campaign.
NFL Week 14: Top Games with Odds & Expert Analysis
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
When: TNF, December 5, 8:15pm ET, Prime Video
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 51.5
NFL Pick: Lions to win and cover
When did the Green Bay Packers last lose a game? When they took it on the chin from the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The Packers also won their matchup with the Lions in Detroit last year. You could say that the Lions are even better now than they were then, particularly in the running game. When the Lions rush for at least 150 yards this season, they win – a 6-0 mark in those games.
The Lions only ran for 124 yards in their earlier meeting with the Packers, but Green Bay had too many flags and dropped passes back in Week 9. The Lions look to be on a mission, and while the Packers are coming on, I don’t see them getting this win. Detroit has won 10 in a row straight up, going 8-2 against the spread during that streak.
^Atlanta Falcons (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
When: Sunday, December 8, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 45.5
NFL Pick: Vikings to win and cover
The Minnesota Vikings are 7-1 in one-score games this season – and 10-2 overall. Sam Darnold definitely found his way back to elite quarterback status under Kyle Shanahan’s tutelage last season, and the Vikings are benefiting. Darnold has two touchdown passes in each of the last three games – without an interception.
Kirk Cousins, in contrast, has zero touchdown passes and six interceptions in his last three games. That’s one reason why the Falcons are just 5-4 straight up in games with a margin of eight points or fewer. Can Cousins break out of a worrying slump when he visits his former team? I’m not so sure, not given how well the Vikings rush the passer.v ^
New Orleans Saints (-5) at N.Y. Giants
When: Sunday, December 8, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 40.5
NFL Pick: Saints to win and cover
MetLife Stadium has not been a great place for the G-men this season. They are 0-6 straight up and have a grand total of 60 point scored in those games. The Saints lost to the Rams in their last action, allowing 156 rushing yards.
The Giants were in Dallas for Thanksgiving and were an overturned fumble call (and a subsequent Brandin Cooks touchdown) away from extending the Cowboys’ home woes – with third-stringer Drew Lock running the offense. When the Giants have been underdogs by at least five points this season, they have gone 3-2 against the spread. The Saints have found a bit of an offensive stride, and if they can corral Tyrone Tracy Jr, they can control the pace of this game.
^Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
When: Sunday, December 8, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 44
NFL Pick: Steelers to win and cover
This game is a rematch of the Week 12 Thursday night showdown in Cleveland that will henceforth be known as the “Snow Globe Game.” Wide receiver George Pickens is still angry about that game and apparently a lot of other issues, as he drew not one but two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in the Steelers’ Week 13 game.
Jameis Winston will look to bounce back from that ugly three-pick night in Denver, and we’ll have a duel of great edge rushers in T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett. I see Russell Wilson having a much easier time passing the ball in friendlier weather conditions – the day will be cold, but snow is not in the forecast.
^Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
When: Sunday, December 8, 4:05 pm ET, CBS
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 44.5
NFL Pick: Cardinals to win and cover
In Week 12, Seattle beat Arizona at home, 16-6, and the Seahawks ride in on a three-game winning streak despite the fact that they’re only rushing for 81 yards per game over that same stretch. Geno Smith is hot at quarterback right now, and while the worry is that Smith has had a hard time sustaining quality play for extended stretches of seasons, he does seem locked in.
Kyler Murray almost led the Cardinals to an upset over Minnesota in Week 13 before a late collapse let the Vikings get away with the win. I see the Cardinals working out some frustrations in this game, and I see Murray torching that Seattle secondary.
^Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at L.A. Rams
When: Sunday, December 8, 4:25 pm ET, FOX
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 49
NFL Pick: Rams to cover
Buffalo has now won seven in a row after their Sunday night stomping of the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams aren’t nearly as injury-depleted as the 49ers are, though, and this game won’t take place in the snow. Matthew Stafford has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua running routes for him, and the Rams also have Kyren Williams pounding the ball.
The Rams are only 3-3 at home, but most of that losing happened while either Kupp, Nacua or both were out of the lineup. The Rams’ rushing defense allows 114.2 yards per game, which could mean a big day for James Cook and Ray Davis, but I see Los Angeles showing more resistance than the sports betting world thinks here.
^L.A. Chargers (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs
When: SNF, December 8, 8:20 pm ET, NBC
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 43
NFL Pick: Chargers to cover
In their earlier meeting at SoFi Stadium, the Chiefs edged the Chargers, 17-10, primarily by keeping the hosts to just 55 yards on the ground.v
Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal need to find space to run if the Chargers are going to make any headway against the NFL’s third-toughest defense. Tailback Isiah Pacheco is back for the Chiefs, and he should continue his angry style of running this week, but I’m still not sure that the Chiefs are ready to play a complete game. After all, they almost lost to the hapless Raiders on Black Friday.
^Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
When: MNF, December 9, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN
NFL totals Week 14: O/U 49.5
NFL Pick: Bengals to win and cover
The NFL tried the rare step of flexing a game out of Monday night prime time. Why? Neither of these preseason contenders looks like the playoffs are going to happen this season. However, FOX has a The Simpsons special tied to the game, and the artwork that had gone into the Cowboys and Bengals would have been too costly and time-consuming to redo, so this will be the Monday prime-time game. The Bengals have dropped three straight, allowing 113 points over that stretch.
The Cowboys have a mostly tepid offense – don’t be fooled by that fourth-quarter outburst in Washington, which was mostly fueled by awful special teams play by the Commanders. Yes, Rico Dowdle ran for over 100 yards against the Giants on Thanksgiving, but if the NFL had relegation, the Giants might well be headed for the UFL after this season. Micah Parsons will pressure Joe Burrow, but the Dallas secondary ultimately won’t be able to stop the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
^The playoff picture with five weeks to go. @surface pic.twitter.com/B8R2dBufZF
— NFL (@NFL) December 3, 2024
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