Another year, another Super Bowl, another appearance by the New England Patriots, who will take part in their third straight NFL championship on February 3 in Atlanta, when they face the Los Angeles Rams. The initial point spread had the Rams favored by a single digit, but then a tidal wave of sports betting money moved the line to New England -2.5. On the moneyline, Los Angeles currently sits as a +130 underdog. There are some key Super Bowl LIII trends for you to consider as you think about how to wager on one of the most popular betting events of the sporting year.
NFL Trends & Stats to Check Before Betting on Super Bowl LIII
The Patriots cover when they are the favorites…except when they don’t
Last year, the Patriots were 4 ½-point favorites to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, but they lost by eight points, by the score of 41-33. However, the Patriots have won 37 of their last 46 games straight up when they entered the game as favorites. However, the Rams have only covered three times in their last 15 games entering as an underdog. Of course, they did cover the last time out, as they were underdogs against the Saints but won anyway.
The Patriots have not permitted a sack in the first two rounds of the playoffs
When Tom Brady has time to sit in the pocket, he makes teams pay. The Chargers couldn’t get to Brady, despite having Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford’s defensive front couldn’t touch Brady (well, they did whack him on the shoulder once, drawing a roughing the passer penalty). He releases the ball quickly, and he can fit his passes into infinitesimal windows, particularly in the fourth quarter and beyond.
New England has won the last five meetings with the Rams
They don’t play that often, being in different conferences, but beginning with that win in Super Bowl XXXVI (when Rams coach Sean McVay was in high school), the Patriots have won five straight games straight up and have covered the spread in four of those meetings.
Bill Belichick has an immense edge in coaching Super Bowls
Did you know that Sean McVay was two days old when Bill Belichick won his first Super Bowl ring? That’s right, Bill Belichick was the New York Giants’ defensive coordinator for Super Bowl XXI, when the Giants beat the Denver Broncos. We already know about Belichick’s five Super Bowl rings since 2000, but this level of experience means that while McVay will be on the game’s biggest stage for the first time, Belichick has been there for McVay’s whole life. That will pay off significantly in terms of intangibles heading in.
Underdogs end up paying off in Super Bowls
Before you jump with both feet onto that Patriots bandwagon, the underdog has had its day in more than its share of Super Bowls. The Pats didn’t cover in Super Bowl LII. They did in Super Bowl LI, that overtime win over the Falcons, but it took a furious comeback from a 28-3 deficit (which inspired those 283-diamond Super Bowl rings).
In Super Bowl 50, Carolina went in as a five-point favorite in a game that Denver would win by 14. New England covered as a one-point favorite in Super Bowl XLIX, but the Pats benefited from the inexplicable decision by the Seahawks not to punch the ball into the end zone after Marshawn Lynch had run over the Pats defense down the field, instead attempting a pass that Malcolm Butler would famously intercept.
In Super Bowl XLVIII, Denver was favored by 2 ½ points — but lost by 35. So simply going with the favorite might not be the best choice here — or is it? After all, the Patriots have tended to cover in Super Bowls, even though last year didn’t turn out that way. Stay tuned for more Super Bowl LIII content — and more betting insights on the Patriots-Rams matchup.
