The Dallas Cowboys visited the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon with a chance to deliver a knockout blow to the Bills’ playoff hopes and to put pressure on the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC race. Instead, the Cowboys let the Bills push them around on both sides of the ball. They permitted almost 300 rushing yards, allowing Josh Allen to get a win while attempting only 15 passes, and their own offensive line looked like they had gone through an artificial aging machine in a 31-10 loss that only saw Dallas find the end zone in garbage time. The Eagles went into Seattle Monday night with a chance to move back into the division lead by taking down a Seahawks team starting backup Drew Lock at quarterback. They got an early 7-0 lead on the first drive of the game, but then they took their foot off the gas and ended up losing, 20-17, as the Seahawks mounted a 92-yard drive in under 90 seconds, scoring on a 29-yard strike with less than 30 seconds remaining in regulation. So the Cowboys enter Week 16 with that tenuous division lead once again – and a trip to Miami on tap. Let’s look at the revised NFC playoff picture and consider how this might influence your NFL betting choices.
NFC Playoff Picture Analysis: Who’s Out? Who’s In? | NFC Playoff Standings
Division Leaders
| San Francisco 49ers (11-3)* |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-4)* |
| Detroit Lions (10-4) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) |
Wild Card Teams
| Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)* |
| Minnesota Vikings (7-7) |
| L.A. Rams (7-7) |
Still in the Hunt
| Seattle Seahawks (7-7) |
| New Orleans Saints (7-7) |
| Atlanta Falcons (6-8) |
| Green Bay Packers (5-8) |
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This week, the Saints-Rams game on Thursday night is huge. The Rams have a better record against conference opponents than the Saints, and they have won four out of five coming into Week 16. Their lone loss came in overtime against Baltimore – but they let a 28-6 lead turn into a suddenly dangerous 28-20 win over Washington last week. Their defense doesn’t always pay attention for all four quarters, and the Saints can put up points in a number of ways especially with Derek Carr back from his list of injuries.
The Lions head to Minnesota in a game that is important for both of them despite the three-game lead that the Lions hold in the NFC North. A win gets the Lions into the playoffs and might clinch the division title for them. That would be their first division championship since 1993. Their offense had been inconsistent lately, but Jared Goff threw five touchdown passes in a 42-17 thrashing of Denver on Saturday. The Vikings are obviously fighting for their playoff lives – with the likes of Nick Mullens at quarterback. That fight got harder when they let backup Jake Browning throw for 324 yards in an overtime loss at Cincinnati last week.
Monday (Christmas Day) has two interesting games for NFC playoff teams. The Giants visit Philadelphia. Will this involve the Eagles working out some frustrations on the G-men and rolling by 40, or will the Eagles struggle again – and take another mind-numbing loss? That would make four losses in a row and might put Nick Sirianni on the hot seat, an unthinkable outcome just a few weeks back.
The prime-time game on Monday has Baltimore heading to San Francisco in what could be a Super Bowl preview. The Ravens picked up a big win in Jacksonville in prime time in Week 15 and would hold the top seed in the AFC if the regular season ended today. If the 49ers lose and the Eagles and Cowboys win, that creates another three-way tie atop the NFC. I see the Eagles restoring order at home, but I don’t see the Cowboys faring any better against Miami than they did against Buffalo, at least on defense, while the Cowboys’ offense should wake up – but not enough to win.
Finally, here are my predictions for the NFC playoff bracket going into Week 16.
Division Winners
| San Francisco 49ers |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
| Detroit Lions |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Wild Card Teams
| Dallas Cowboys |
| Los Angeles Rams |
| Seattle Seahawks |
2023-24 NFL Conference Championship Odds
Odds to Win 2024 NFC Championship
| NFC Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -113 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +380 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +450 |
| Detroit Lions | +870 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +3500 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +3700 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4100 |
| New Orleans Saints | +4800 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +6800 |
| Green Bay Packers | +8000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +10000 |
| Chicago Bears | +38000 |
| New York Giants | +55000 |
| NFC Lines to Win | |
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Previous Betting News: December 6, 2023
NFC Playoff Picture Analysis: Who’s Out? Who’s In? | Current Playoff Standings
The Washington Commanders entered the 2023 season by making two significant bets that would determine whether Ron Rivera was the long-term solution at head coach. One involved making Sam Howell the starting quarterback. He looked All-Pro in Week 18 last year against Dallas to end the 2022 season, but he still only had 19 career passing attempts. That largely paid off; even though Howell has had almost no time in the pocket, taking 58 sacks, he is second in the NFL in passing yards, with 3,466, and has accounted for 23 scores, 18 through the air and five on the ground. The second involved new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who found himself with a dearth of talent but still guided the team to three 30+ point games in the first eight weeks. What surprised many observers was the collapse of the defense, which led to the firing of DC Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer in the wake of the Thanksgiving loss in Dallas, a 14-10 game at one point that turned into a 45-10 shellacking. What will this do for Ron Rivera in terms of a future with the franchise, particularly with new ownership in place? We will see. Don’t expect Washington in the postseason, but check out our latest update on the NFC playoff picture as you consider your NFL betting strategy.
| 1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) | 2. San Francisco 49ers (9-3) |
| 3. Detroit Lions (9-3) | 4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6) |
| 5. Dallas Cowboys (9-3) | 6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6) |
| 7. Green Bay Packers (6-6) |
A yearly tradition in the eight-division NFL involves watching to see which team will host a playoff game with a losing record after winning a weak division. This year, that division is the NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons hold that fourth seed because they lead their division at 6-6, but they’re just one game up on Tampa Bay and New Orleans, who both sit at 5-7. Tampa Bay plays Atlanta this week, and the outcome will go a long way toward determining which team will “win” that division crown. The Saints play the Panthers, who may bounce back after the team fired coach Frank Reich in the wake of that 1-10 start to the season. The game is in New Orleans, but if the Panthers can get the upset, that could turn the South into a two-team race.
Sunday night, of course, has a huge matchup as the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Dallas Cowboys in prime time. The 49ers have routed both teams this year, so they hold the tiebreaker (and show no signs of reverting back to that odd form that saw them drop three straight earlier this season). If the Cowboys can get the split with Philadelphia, and the 49ers can hold off Seattle, then all three teams would be tied at 10-3. Dallas has a perfect 5-0 home record this season and is putting up 41 points per game. The only time they have trailed at home came last Thursday as they fell behind Seattle before roaring back for a win. Both the Eagles and the Cowboys struggle against chunk plays in the passing game, so this game could turn into a track meet.
The Packers have crept back into the playoff race after stopping Kansas City on Sunday night. Now they play the New York Giants on the road on Monday night, which feels a lot like a trap game. Don’t look now, but the G-men come out of the bye week riding a two-game winning streak thanks to a 31-19 win in Washington and a 10-7 home win over New England. Can third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito make it three straight wins? If the Packers come in overconfident, things could get interesting.
