The three seasons since Super Bowl LI have been frustrating ones for fans of the Atlanta Falcons. In that game, the Falcons led the New England Patriots by the score of 28-3 late in the third quarter. However, New England famously roared all the way back for a win in the first Super Bowl ever to go to overtime. The Patriots memorialized that with a Super Bowl ring that contained 283 diamonds (for the 28-3 deficit). Since then, the Falcons have won another NFC South title, and then disappeared from the postseason. The talent on offense has remained largely constant, with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones carrying the load. In the first wave of free agency, the Falcons may have found their running back, as they picked up Todd Gurley II right after his release from the Rams. Even so, their sports betting odds for winning Super Bowl LV have grown from 40/1 to 60/1 after the first wave of free agency. Let’s take a look at the deals the Falcons have made so far and how they might contribute to Atlanta’s chances as a contender in 2020.
NFL: Updated Odds for Atlanta Falcons after Free Agency Wave #1
Atlanta came into the 2020 offseason saddled with bad contracts and without a lot of salary cap space. That meant that the Falcons had to bid farewell to Vic Beasley and Desmond Trufant, both former first-round draft picks, as well as Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper. The Falcons made some moves in response, and the reaction is mixed after the first wave.
Austin Hooper is a gifted tight end, and as free agency approached, it became clearer that Hooper was looking to leave. Atlanta was wise not to back up the Brinks truck to his house and overpay him. Hayden Hurst comes from Baltimore, where he put up some solid numbers despite being the backup behind Mark Andrews. The Ravens have more of a run-first offense than the Falcons do, so Hurst should see his numbers tick up this year. Hurst is also a better run blocker than Hooper, so there should be more room for Gurley to run with his new team than there was for Freeman last year.
Another solid addition is Dante Fowler, who will come in to replace Vic Beasley in the Atlanta pass rush. Beasley had a terrific 2016 season rushing the passer, but since then he has largely been a disappointment. Both Beasley and Fowler were selected in the 2015 NFL Draft — both coming in the top ten picks. However, Fowler blew out an ACL before his rookie season and ended up missing the whole year. Fowler had a solid year in 2019, the best season he has put up so far. He had over 50 combo tackles, 40 solo tackles and 16 quarterback hits. All of those are numbers that would have easily been career bests for Beasley. In 2019, Fowler took part in 48 blitz packages and pressured the quarterback 35 times. Beasley took part in 35 blitz packages and had 18 pressures, so Fowler’s numbers are better all the way around.
Is Todd Gurley a better tailback than Davonta Freeman? Um, yes. He scored at least ten touchdowns in four of his five seasons with the Rams. He did develop knee issues in the Rams’ loss to Philadelphia in the 2018 season. The Rams brought in C.J. Anderson to help carry the load in the postseason, but 2019 also saw limits on Gurley’s carries. His yards, attempts per game, and receiving numbers all went down last year. Even so, his 852 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns were more than Freeman put up.
So why did the Falcons’ odds get longer to win a Super Bowl after a fairly decent free agent campaign? Well, the NFC South got tougher. Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback now. Tampa Bay brought in Tom Brady to lead the offense. New Orleans got Drew Brees to sign a two-year contract extension. So winning the division, or even earning a wild card, just got tougher — and the Falcons haven’t done anything yet to address their offensive line woes.
