The NFL season is drawing to an end, with the conference championships set for this weekend. The Green Bay Packers welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship, and after they have played, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs remain the favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy, given to the winners of each year’s Super Bowl, although all four teams have a more than decent shot at the title.
Let’s take a look at the updated NFL betting odds for each of these four teams to win the Super Bowl, and then we’ll give you our thoughts about the contenders.
NFL News: Updated Odds to Win Super Bowl LV
| Kansas City Chiefs | +200 |
| Green Bay Packers | +225 |
| Buffalo Bills | +325 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +400 |
Yes, the Chiefs posted a 14-2 regular season record (with that second loss coming in Week 17, with Patrick Mahomes and other starters watching from the sideline). They are the first team ever to host three straight AFC Championships. Patrick Mahomes has to be the quarterback that you would want if you had two minutes of game time and you needed a touchdown drive to win. However, they just don’t feel as dominant as they felt a year ago. And even then the Chiefs liked to dig themselves holes, falling behind in each of their playoff games before roaring back to win.
Take a look at the Chiefs’ win over Cleveland. Kansas City scored 22 points, getting two touchdowns (with one missed PAT) and three field goals. After halftime, they put up exactly one field goal while the Cleveland Browns started to claw their way back into the game. The Browns have a secondary that Mahomes should have been able to pick apart at will, but Kansas City’s offense just seemed to sputter the whole game, even before Mahomes’ concussion. Mahomes is symptom-free and set to practice Wednesday, so he looks like he’ll be back for the AFC Championship against the Bills, but even with Mahomes back, the Chiefs’ offense doesn’t look as well-oiled as Buffalo’s.
Then there’s the question of how Buffalo will do at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills struggled to move the ball against a physical Baltimore defense in the divisional round, but they got a touchdown drive when they needed it, in the third quarter, and then they got that memorable pick-six that put the dagger into Baltimore, who was done even before Lamar Jackson suffered that concussion. Buffalo loaded the box and dared Jackson to try and escape their containment and beat them down the field, and he couldn’t do it in either capacity. I expect Buffalo to sell out against the long pass, as they did in Week 6, but their O-line and D-line have injured starters back, and I see the Bills applying more pressure and bursting through more holes.
The Packers offer slightly more value and have a much easier road to the Super Bowl. They will host the Buccaneers on a Sunday when the forecast calls for snow and a high of 28 degrees. Tom Brady is used to playing in snow, as is Rob Gronkowski, but eht rest of the team is a warm-weather roster, and we saw how the Packers were able to make Tennessee’s defense look silly in a snowy game in Week 16. Tampa Bay’s defense is noticeably better than Tennessee’s, but by the time the Bucs adjust to the conditions, the Packers could be up by a couple of touchdowns.
My smart pick here is the Buffalo Bills, though. They have passed test after test since losing to Kansas City in Week 6, and they look like the hungriest team in the bunch. I am curious to see what their defensive scheme will look like on Sunday, but I think they have the plans on both sides of the ball to pull off the wins — and deliver the value.
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
