Don’t miss out the Updated Super Bowl Odds to Win at Week 18 of the 2024 NFL regular season, almost here, with a few playoff slots to figure out.
If Tampa Bay can beat New Orleans in their season finale, they will win the NFC South and get the fourth seed. If they lose while Atlanta wins, then the Falcons would take that slot.
The winner of Minnesota and Detroit will win the NFC North – and the loser will be the league’s first-ever 14-win wild-card team and would head to the NFC South champ’s stadium for the first round of the playoffs.
In the AFC, if Denver can beat Kansas City, they will get the last open spot in the AFC bracket. If they lose, then either Cincinnati or Miami will take that spot. Whichever team takes that seventh seed will get a wild-card date in Buffalo.
Let’s look at the updated odds to win the Super Bowl as we approach Week 18 and the wild-card round of the playoffs the following week.
Updated Super Bowl Odds to Win | NFL Week 18
- Kansas City Chiefs +350
- Detroit Lions +440
- Buffalo Bills +590
- Baltimore Ravens +650
- Philadelphia Eagles +660
- Minnesota Vikings +850
- Green Bay Packers +1525
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3100
- Los Angeles Rams +3200
- Los Angeles Chargers +3500
- Washington Commanders +3900
- Pittsburgh Steelers +5200
- Houston Texans +6200
- Denver Broncos +6600
- Cincinnati Bengals +22000
- Miami Dolphins +26000
- Atlanta Falcons +34000
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will almost certainly rest Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones in Week 18 and then will have a bye week to get them even more time to recuperate from injuries. Other key skill position players such as Kareem Hunt and Xavier Worthy could also benefit from the extra rest. What this means, though, is that the Chiefs will have their most important players entering the divisional round not having played a meaningful game for about a month.
They’d already clinched the top seed when they beat Pittsburgh on Christmas Day, so playing consequential football will be a new thing when they take the field for the divisional game. We did see Mahomes throw his first bomb since Week 4 in the win over Pittsburgh, as he found Justin Watson for a 49-yard completion that traveled 40 yards in the air.
^Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have now lost three in a row and could easily see that number go to four as a red-hot Cincinnati team shows up this week. The defense was creating turnovers and putting opponents behind the chains early in the season, but those tendencies have largely stopped. Russell Wilson took over for Justin Fields after the Dallas loss and was initially very successful, winning five games in six starts, but now he’s looking more like the tentative, struggling signal-caller he was in his first year with the Broncos. He took five sacks, a season high, largely because he held the ball too long, and he threw an interception in the end zone. This is not a team that will last long in the postseason bracket.
^Cincinnati Bengals
But how about those Bengals? Tee Higgins gave the team all the reason it needed to find the money to extend him, catching 11 balls for 131 yards and three scores and taking over in overtime in the team’s 30-24 win over Denver. The kicking game, all of a sudden, is a major question as Cade York missed a field goal in overtime that would have beaten the Broncos.
The defense finally stood tall, though, getting a three-and-out so that the Bengals could still drive down and find the end zone. To me, they’re an intriguing value pick, and even if you wait until after Week 18 to see if they make the playoffs, you will still likely get a lot of value to pick them to win the whole thing. There are other wizards at quarterback in the NFL, but none of them can pull more magic out of their bag of tricks than Joe Burrow can.
^Detroit Lions
The Lions get to host Minnesota in Week 18, and there are zero questions about the potency of the Lions’ offense. David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams have all picked up more than 1,000 scrimmage yards. No other team in NFL history has ever had two running backs and two wide receivers all pick up more than 1,000 scrimmage yards in a season. The balance in this offense is dangerous, and Jared Goff is locked in. Against San Francisco last week, he went 26 of 34 for 303 yards, and in the first half, he and Brock Purdy combined for just four incompletions in the first half – two throwaways, one defended pass in the end zone, and one spike.
That means there was just one pass thrown with an intended target that didn’t end in a completion. Goff ended up throwing for three touchdowns, all coming on third- or fourth-down plays. The Lions’ issues come on defense – if they’re not getting turnovers, they’re not stopping the opponent. San Francisco was able to trade touchdown for touchdown against Detroit without Christian McCaffrey until Purdy started sailing the ball high in the second half, and safety Kerby Joseph had a pair of interceptions as a result. That defense needs to tighten up, not just against the Vikings, but also in the playoffs.
^Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins got an unexpected boost from backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in their 20-3 win over Cleveland. He had three starts earlier this season in relief of Tua Tagovailoa, but only cracked 100 passing yards in one of those games. Against the Browns, he had 143 passing yards at halftime and finished 22 of 26 for 225 yards, with a touchdown through the air and another on the ground. Without Tagovailoa or Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins took care of business in a must-win game. However, they were only able to run for 74 yards on the day, despite the fact that the Browns have allowed over 100 rushing yards in all but two games this season. If the Dolphins somehow back into the playoffs (and finishing in New York against the Jets means that a Week 18 win is far from automatic), this isn’t a promising team.
^Houston Texans
The Texans from 2023 would absolutely crush the version of the team that the Ravens just took to the woodshed in 31-2 fashion. The 2024 Texans are just 1-5 against winning teams, and the way the Ravens dominated them in all phases of the game should tell us that this is not a team built to make a deep run. They should rest their starters for most, if not all, of Week 18, since their seeding is locked. They do need to find ways to jump-start things on both sides of the ball if they’re not going to get rocked in the wild-card round.
^^2025 #ProBowlGames Quarterbacks! pic.twitter.com/pAXRnyiUqq
— NFL (@NFL) January 2, 2025
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