Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl 53 Winner

One of the yearly Super Bowl traditions is the use of the Madden NFL video game to predict the outcome of the NFL’s title game. Since this began, the game has predicted that New England would win all of the Super Bowls that they have been in, except for one. Last year, the game predicted that New England would knock off the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Eagles ended up with the last laugh, winning by eight points. This year, Madden NFL 19 has predicted that the Los Angeles Rams will knock off the Patriots in a comeback victory. How does the game work? It uses past performance to simulate the outcome of this game. How useful is past performance for NFL betting enthusiasts? Here is a look at what we should look at in picking a winner here.

Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl 53 Winner

Here’s a little more detail on the Madden NFL 19 simulation. The game has the Patriots running out to a 17-3 halftime lead over the Rams. However, the Rams put up 27 points in the second half, scoring three touchdowns and a field goal. The teams are tied, 20-20, after three quarters, and then the Rams kick a long field goal, Tom Brady leads yet another fourth quarter drive for a touchdown, and then Todd Gurley II scores the last touchdown of the game, with a final score of Los Angeles 30, New England 27. The simulation also has Aaron Donald sacking Tom Brady four times to win the MVP, Jared Goff throwing for 303 yards while Brady throws for just 287, Julian Edelman and Robert Woods each catching eight passes and scoring a touchdown, and Sony Michel running for 103 yards and a touchdown.

Does this suit the past performance of the two teams?

Yes, Gregg Zuerlein nailed a 47-yard field goal to tie the NFC Championship and a 57-yard field goal to win the game in overtime. The Rams were also able to mount a comeback against the Saints in that game, after trailing 13-0 at halftime. The Patriots led the AFC Championship by 14 points at halftime, only to see the Chiefs come back and force overtime. Sony Michel has been one of the most explosive running backs in the postseason. The comparison has to begin at quarterback. Tom Brady has record for playoff games started (39), playoff games won (29), playoff touchdown passes (73), playoff passing yards (10,917), Super Bowl appearances (9), Super Bowl wins (5), Super Bowl MVP trophies (4), Super Bowl touchdown passes (18) and Super Bowl passing yards (2,576). He also has led 54 game-winning drives, just two short of Peyton Manning’s record. He has also led 44 fourth-quarter comebacks, just one behind Manning. It is true that Brady is in his 40s, but if you saw him nail throw after throw in the fourth quarter and overtime against Kansas City, you have to recognize that Brady doesn’t miss throws when the game is on the line. He did have a pass clank off a receiver’s hands and end up in the hands of the Chiefs, but an offside call negated that turnover.

What About the Rams?

On the other sideline will be Jared Goff. He will be playing in his fourth postseason game when he starts Super Bowl LIII for the Rams. The team has a 2-1 record in his first three games, with the loss coming last year at home against the Atlanta Falcons. This year, Goff has done a good job with ball security, but many of his passes have not been close. Pressure on Goff has led him to miss some easy passes, and the pressure will only build in the Super Bowl. The Patriots can mount a furious pass rush, as we saw when they sacked Patrick Mahomes II four times in the AFC Championship. So while the Rams have a terrific defense and a solid running game, the Patriots can largely match those units — and they have the edge at quarterback. For those reasons, I like New England to win and cover.