Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl Winners

Each year, the video game Madden, created by Electronic Arts, runs a simulation of the Super Bowl game to come. This year, the simulation predicts that the Philadelphia Eagles will fall just short in Super Bowl LII to the New England Patriots, with the final score reading 24-20. In the simulated game, Tom Brady throws for 342 yards and three scores (along with a pick), taking home the MVP trophy. The Eagles take the lead in this simulation, both in the first quarter and then again in the third quarter, but the Patriots come back twice, they hold off a late Eagles drive to seal the win. Madden uses statistics and other elements of past performance to shape its players and, ultimately, its predictions. The simulation has only missed twice in the last 15 Super Bowls (one of which ended with the New York Giants beating New England in Super Bowl XLII). How can you use past performance to predict the winner of the game’s greatest matchup? Here’s a few things to consider for your Super Bowl betting picks.

Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl Winners

Look at the quarterbacks

Tom Brady has a 27-9 record in 36 career postseason starts. Both the number of wins and the number of starts are records for an NFL quarterback. In his career, he has led 54 drives in the fourth quarter that either tied the game and sent things to overtime, where the Patriots would win, or won the game outright. The most recent of those, of course, came against Jacksonville in the AFC Championship, and the most famous came in last year’s Super Bowl, when New England came back from a 28-3 deficit in the third quarter to win the game. That win over Jacksonville was the eighth postseason comeback win that Brady has directed with New England. What about Nick Foles? He has exactly three postseason starts, one back in 2013 and two from this season. He has a 116.4 passer rating if you look at his statistics from those three games combined. He’s gone 72 for 96 for 793 yards. He’s thrown five TD passes without a single pick. For any quarterback with at least 75 passing attempts in the playoffs, he has the best passer rating of all time. If you look at he rest of the top five in that list, you have some quality company — Bart Starr (104.8, #3), Kurt Warner (102.8, #4) and Matt Ryan (100.8, #5). But who’s #2? Jeff Hostetler who, like Foles, was a quarterback who came off the bench. In 1990, the New York Giants lost starting quarterback Phil Simms to injury. Hostetler came on and led the team to a title. Can Foles do it again? He has a far less impressive career line of stats — so if you’re looking for one quarterback or the other to fold, you have to look at Foles here. But his numbers are pretty solid, given the limited experience he has. Edge: New England

Look at the line of scrimmage

On the defensive side of the ball, both teams have done well at the line of scrimmage. Leonard Fournette averaged about 3.2 yards per carry for Jacksonville in the AFC Championship, and the Patriots sacked Blake Bortles three times, all in the second half, giving their offense chances to erase a 10-point deficit during the fourth quarter. Against Tennessee, they sacked Marcus Mariota a postseason team record eight times. So they will find ways to apply pressure to Nick Foles. However, the Birds have a pretty solid line of their own. They have seven starter-quality defensive linemen, which means that they get plenty of rotation — and still have energy late in the game. None of them played more than 60 percent of the team’s defensive snaps, so the pass rush specialists like Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox should still be able to get after Brady with some vigor in the game’s waning moments. Edge: Philadelphia

Look at the takeaway margin

Philadelphia forced 31 turnovers during the regular season — almost two per contest. Against Minnesota in the NFC Championship, with the Vikings up 7-0 and driving, the Eagles snatched an interception and took it to the house, tying the game and grabbing the momentum with both hands. The Vikings would not score another point, while the Eagles would add 31 more. On the season, the Eagles had a +11 turnover differential. The Patriots, on the other hand, had 18 takeaways and 12 turnovers for a +6 differential. Philadelphia has the personnel to make big plays. Edge: Philadelphia

Look at the intangibles

The Patriots have earned their status as a dynasty. Just seeing Tom Brady take the field with his offense in the fourth quarter makes the whole audience feel like a touchdown is coming. It’s hard to overcome that sort of mental pressure. The Eagles have played well in adversity this season, dealing with a number of important injuries in addition to the loss of Carson Wentz. But the team has only been to three Super Bowls now and hasn’t won a title since 1960. Can they overcome the Patriot mystique? Edge: New England