One thing about the lead-up to Super Bowl LV that is normal is the fact that the point spread has two weeks to shift…as the opening lines came out right after the pairing of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was set. Over those two weeks, if there is a lack of balance, the action will tend to pull the point spread toward the middle of the betting. Given the considerable amount of research that goes into setting point spreads in the sports betting industry — particularly for such a popularly wagered event as a Super Bowl — you do not expect to see much in the way of a shift. But does it make sense to wait to bet until the last minute?
Take a look at our NFL betting thoughts.
NFL News: Wait to Bet on Super Bowl LV. Is It a Good Idea?
The largest shift in a Super Bowl point spread came six years ago, when the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks met in Super Bowl XLIX. The line opened as Seattle -2.5, but then as action poured in on the New England side of the line, the line shifted all the way to New England -1. That 3.5-point shift was the largest in the history of one of sports betting’s most heavily wagered events.
This doesn’t mean, of course, that the lines have always turned out to be right. The most infamous example came way back in Super Bowl III, when the Baltimore Colts were favored by 18 points over the New York Jets and ended up losing by nine. There have been upsets in more recent years, of course, but none featured the 27-point differential between the line for the favorite and the win by the underdog. If you look at Super Bowl XLII, you see a much newer example. The Giants went in as 14-point underdogs but ended up beating the Patriots by three points, thanks to that miraculous “helmet catch” (which would be the last catch in David Tyree’s NFL career) and a subsequent touchdown pass by Eli Manning.
So if you are considering how to time your Super Bowl wager, first start by asking yourself if the line makes sense as it is. Super Bowl LV betting opened with a line of Kansas City -3.5. It has since shifted slightly to Kansas City -3. That’s not a huge difference, but if the Chiefs win by a field goal, which is an extremely likely scenario given how many times Kansas City has come back to win on the final drive over the past three seasons, the wager ends up in a push.
So in a normal year, if you see a clear edge on one side of the line or the other, then you should take it when you see that the balance favors your intuition. The same goes for the point total. A lot of people immediately took the under when betting opened, which is why the point total shifted down from 57.5, then to 56.5, then to 55.5, before correcting back up to 56.5. The largest point total offered for a Super Bowl wager has been 57, given twice (and the over won once, and the under won once).
So in a game this closely researched, while you won’t see much line shifting, at times you will see a line that turns out to be wrong — and by more than a subtle shift. So in a normal year, I would advise people to jump in when they feel like they have the best balance.
However, in this pandemic year, things are a bit different. Why? Because we have seen, all season long, what can happen when COVID-19 results come back positive in the days, even the hours, before a game. The Baltimore Ravens had to play games without Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The Denver Broncos had to bring up a practice-squad wide receiver and let him play quarterback. Dez Bryant had to come off the field minutes before a game because of a last-second test result. Do you think the league will push the Super Bowl back to, say, Wednesday night because of a Saturday test result, like they did in the regular season? Of course not.
So even if you think you have a bead on the game, you don’t get a bonus because you bet six days before kickoff. Keep an eye on that COVID-19 list, and don’t lock in until you have to.
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