The New Orleans Saints (6-7) looked headed to an NFC wild card, if not NFC South title contention, before Jameis Winston went down with a torn ACL on Halloween night, when they hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even with Winston out, the Saints rode backup quarterback Trevor Siemian and an opportunistic defense to a 36-27 win over the Bucs. After that, though, things turned badly as the team went on a five-game losing streak. The first two losses were only by two points apiece, but then the wheels fell off. Two weeks ago, the team turned to Taysom Hill at quarterback, and while he could not lead the team to a win over Dallas, he drove the team to a 30-9 shellacking of the Jets last week. Now the Saints visit Tampa Bay for their second meeting with the Buccaneers (10-3), who have a four-game winning streak and who most recently beat the Buffalo Bills in overtime a week ago.
Check out our online NFL betting thoughts about this NFC South matchup.
NFL Preview: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, December 19)
When: Sunday, December 19, 2021, 8:20 pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
TV: NBC
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Tampa Bay -11 / O/U 46.5 // Tampa Bay -550 / New Orleans +400
Why should you bet on the Saints?
The key to the Saints’ big win in New York was the return of tailback Alvin Kamara. He ran for 120 yards and a score, and he caught four passes out of the backfield for 25 more yards. Taysom Hill went 15 of 21 for 175 yards and ran for 73 more – and ran for two touchdowns. On the season, Kamara now has 650 yards on the ground and 335 receiving yards, along with eight touchdowns. All of these numbers come in nine games as he has missed time recovering from hamstring and knee injuries. The Saints will try to ride this running game to a win, or at least a cover.
In addition to the running game, the Saints have a stout defense, permitting just 21.9 points per game, 11th in the NFL. Their rushing defense is sixth in the league in yards permitted per game and tops in the league in yards permitted per attempt (3.7). The Buccaneers like to use Leonard Fournette a great deal, an approach that they weren’t using as much when these teams met the first time. If you like the Saints to cover here, you see them using the running game to slow the pace down and reduce the number of possessions per team, and you see their defense frustrating Tom Brady like they did in the teams’ first meeting.
Why should you put your money on the Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay avoided near disaster next week, as they went into the locker room at halftime up 24-3 on Buffalo. However, the Bills stormed all the way back to tie the game at 27 and send things to overtime. Tom Brady threw a 58-yard catch-and-run touchdown to Breshad Perriman to get the win. On the night, Brady was 31 of 46 for 363 yards and two passing touchdowns, along with a scramble for a score. Leonard Fournette ran for 113 yards and a score while also catching four passes for 19 yards. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans combined for 16 catches and 196 yards. The pass rush recorded three sacks on Josh Allen.
The Buccaneers do have some issues on defense, as their secondary has a number of injuries, but their unit ranks third in the league in rushing yards permitted per game, so they should be able to limit the damage that Kamara and Hill can do. As we saw in the Dallas game, Hill has issues with throwing accuracy, particularly on intermediate-length passes and balls down the field.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
This is a large point spread given the issues that Tampa Bay has had on defense, the role that Kamara can play for the Saints’ offense and the fact that we’re dealing with a divisional rivalry. I predict a final score of Tampa Bay 30, New Orleans 20 – but I like the Saints to cover.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Bet the Game Today
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