The New England Patriots (9-5) saw their seven-game winning streak come to an end last week, as they fell on the road to Indianapolis by ten points on Saturday. Next up is the team’s rematch with the Buffalo Bills (8-6), who had dropped three of four before bouncing back with a 31-14 shellacking of the Carolina Panthers last week. This week’s showdown at Gillette Stadium comes with the AFC East title on the line. Which Josh Allen will show up – the one who has thrown 35 touchdown passes on the year, mostly in blowouts, or the one who has underperformed in so many close games? Which Patriots running defense will show up – the one that dominated early or the one that has been threatened lately?
Check out our online NFL betting prediction.
NFL Preview: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Sunday, December 26)
When: Sunday, December 26, 2021, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV: CBS
Radio: WGR 550 AM Buffalo / WBZ 98.5 FM Boston
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: New England -2.5 / O/U 43.5 // Buffalo +115 / New England -135
Why should you bet on the Bills?
The Patriots bottled up the Buffalo running game in their first matchup, holding the Bills to 99 yards on the ground. One difference between that game and this will be the windy conditions. In Buffalo, the wind was so intense that the Patriots only had Mac Jones attempt three passes, pounding the ball time and time again into a Bills defense that frankly lacked resolve in the face of what they knew was coming, play after play. This time around, though, Josh Allen should be able to throw the ball more reliably, and the Patriots must counter with some adjustments to try and take that away.
Devin Singletary could be the key player for the Bills this week. If he can generate enough rushing yardage, the Patriots will have to bring more players closer to the line of scrimmage, giving the Bills’ receivers time to find space in zone coverage. Singletary ran for just 36 yards on 10 attempts in the teams’ first meeting, but if Allen can throw the ball more, the possibility of a win with more balanced offense goes up significantly.
Why should you put your money on the Patriots?
The Patriots were able to contain Josh Allen effectively in their first meeting. He did run for 39 yards in that game, but 21 of those yards came on one scramble. When he tried to throw the ball, the swirling winds kept the ball sailing high (when it was behind him) or kept the ball from moving with its normal velocity (when it was in his face). The Patriots were able to adjust to these trends, and the Bills were not.
Buffalo currently has wide receiver Cole Beasley and starting left tackle Dion Dawkins on the COVID-19 list; while New England has five players on the list, the only significant one is wideout Kendrick Bourne. Nelson Agholor and Rhamondre Stevenson did not practice on Wednesday due to injury, though, which could be more of a concern. If you like the Patriots here, you see the Bills continuing to struggle with inconsistent play, most notably in terms of production in the running game and Josh Allen’s performance, as Bill Belichick remains the most gifted coach in the NFL in terms of defensive game planning.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
The Bills have bounced back on multiple occasions this season, and they have risen to so many tough moments the past three seasons that it is hard to imagine coming into Gillette Stadium poorly prepared. I see the Bills getting revenge for the home loss and taking advantage of either the absence or the limitations of Stevenson, with a 20-16 win.
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