Here’s an NFL trivia question: Which quarterback has thrown for 1,307 yards over the last four weeks to lead all signal-callers? Is it Dak Prescott? Tua Tagovailoa? Lamar Jackson? No – It’s Joe Flacco of the Cleveland Browns, who are now 10-5 and have won three of the four games he has started. He has also thrown 10 touchdown passes in that span, tied with Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford for the league lead. Since 1950, only seven teams have won ten games in a season while starting at least four different quarterbacks. After watching Baltimore dismantle San Francisco on Christmas night, it’s hard to see the Browns winning the AFC North, but with their defense, the Browns will do some damage if they can get to the playoffs. Going into NFL Week 17, check out our top sports betting ATS Picks.
2023 NFL Week 17 ATS Picks
| Jets (+7) at Browns |
| Lions (+6) at Cowboys |
| Patriots (+12) at Bills |
| Raiders (+3) at Colts |
| Dolphins (+3) at Ravens |
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
When: Thursday, December 28, 8:15 pm ET
Where:Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
TV/Live Stream: Prime Video
The Browns have gone 5-0 against the spread when favored at home this season, and if the Ravens lose to Miami this week, the Browns would get some help toward a divisional crown. No team has turned the ball over more this season than the Browns have, but their defense has made them even in turnover margin. In contrast, the Jets have a -7 turnover differential in just the last four games. If this line gets bigger than a touchdown, the Jets might be able to cover thanks to their ironclad defense, but I think the Browns can win this by more than a score. Cleveland to win and cover.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
When: Saturday, December 30, 8:15 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
TV/Live Stream: ABC/ESPN
The Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread this season when favored at home; they have won their seven home games by an average of 24.4 points. The Cowboys have been let down by their defense the last two weeks, as Buffalo gashed the Cowboys for almost 300 rushing yards in a blowout win two weeks ago and the Cowboys could not get stops on third down in a crucial game-winning drive that they allowed in the last minutes of regulation in that loss to Miami this past week. I think Detroit can pound the ball on the ground against Dallas and Jared Goff can keep this close; an outright win for the Lions would not surprise me at all. Lions to cover.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, December 31, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV/Live Stream: CBS
The Patriots won in Buffalo last season and beat the Bills at Gillette earlier this season. Bill Belichick knows how to game plan the Bills with his defense, and the Bills barely beat the Chargers last week after the Chargers had lost in Vegas by 42 the week before. This line is way too large for a Bills team that has been wildly inconsistent this season. Patriots to cover.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
When: Sunday, December 31, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV/Live Stream: CBS
The Colts don’t have Jonathan Taylor, and they are playing inconsistent football. The Raiders are riding the momentum of a big win at Arrowhead Stadium last week. Maxx Crosby is on fire with the Las Vegas pass rush, and the Raiders are pounding the ball on the ground. The Colts’ run defense is 28th in the league, permitting 130.7 points per game. I see the Raiders winning here, not just covering. Raiders to cover.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
When: Sunday, December 31, 1:00 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
TV/Live Stream: CBS
This could be an AFC Championship matchup and should deliver some big numbers. In 2022, the Dolphins edged the Ravens, 42-38, behind six touchdown passes from Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for 469 yards. Lamar Jackson threw for 318 yards, ran for 119 more and accounted for four total touchdowns. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points six times this season, so they can do track meets. The Ravens just embarrassed the 49ers out at Levi’s Stadium, so can they deliver another message at home? Ravens to win and cover.
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