Sports betting in the NFL Week 18 of the regular season is almost as dicey as betting on preseason games. Teams that have locked in their postseason fates will rest a lot of key personnel, like the 49ers are doing with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, and the Ravens are doing with Lamar Jackson. Teams that have been inconsistent for much of the season now face do-or-die games against would-be spoilers that are motivated to keep their opponents from the postseason, as Jacksonville may find when they visit the Tennessee Titans. Even so, we have selected some promising picks against the spread for you to consider as the NFL regular season comes to an end.
2024 NFL Week 18 ATS Picks
| Steelers (-3.5) at Ravens (O/U 38) |
| Falcons (+3.5) at Saints (O/U 41.5) |
| Cowboys (-13.5) at Commanders (O/U 48) |
| Bills (-3) at Dolphins (O/U 50) |
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
When: Saturday, January 6, 4:30 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
TV/Live Stream: ABC/ESPN
How are the Steelers favored in this game? Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will be resting, along with a lot of the other Baltimore skill players, while the Steelers are looking at a playoff spot if they win and get some help from other teams in Week 18. Mason Rudolph is set to start again at quarterback after a solid Week 17 performance. The problem with Rudolph, historically, is that he will come in and play brilliantly for a game or two and then get overconfident and force the ball into tight windows, leading to turnovers. The Ravens have the secondary to make Rudolph pay for those mistakes. Ravens to cover.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
When: Sunday, January 7, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
TV/Live Stream: CBS
The Saints went to Tampa Bay and won a week ago, and Derek Carr put up some solid numbers. As one of the streakier quarterbacks in the NFL, Carr is a hand that you should ride while it’s hot; the problem is that you don’t know when it will get ice-cold. The Falcons have similar issues on offense, looking solid one week and confused the next. The Saints need this win to have a shot at a playoff spot (and an outside shot at the NFC South title, should Tampa Bay falter at Carolina), and I see them controlling this at home. Saints to win and cover.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
When: Sunday, January 7, 4:25 pm ET
Where: FedExField, Landover, MD
TV/Live Stream: FOX
Dallas is 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road. However, the NFL has done everything but overturn their home win over Detroit last week after a botched call took away what would have been a game-winning two-point conversion for the Lions. The Cowboys did rout Washington on Thanksgiving, but that was a one-score game near the end of the third quarter before the floodgates opened. Dak Prescott should be able to keep finding CeeDee Lamb with the ball, but the Cowboys’ inability to run the ball has led them to explore signing Dalvin Cook for the postseason. Meanwhile, remember that Washington almost beat Philadelphia twice earlier this season and stopped the Cowboys in Week 18 a year ago in convincing fashion. Commanders to cover.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins SNF
When: Sunday, January 7, 8:20 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV/Live Stream: NBC
The Bills were 6-6 and on the verge of falling out of the postseason, but now they are 10-6 after a four-game surge. They still haven’t clinched a playoff spot, though, and if they lose in Miami, they could still miss the playoffs. If they beat the Dolphins on the road, they will win the AFC East for the fourth season in a row. The Bills’ offense is clicking as the unit has gone more run-heavy behind James Cook and Josh Allen – in their 31-10 win over Dallas, Allen only needed to throw the ball 15 times. The Bills have not made things easy the last two weeks, having to come back to beat the Chargers and the Patriots (two non-playoff teams). Can they take advantage of a Miami team reeling from that 56-19 whipping they took from the Ravens? I’m not so sure. Dolphins to cover.
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