NFL Week 4 SU Picks

Now that all of the Week Three matchups from the 2017 NFL regular season are in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to the next week in NFL odds action. We had some big surprises this week, as Green Bay had to roar back from a 14-point deficit at home to knock off the Bengals, the Giants’ offense woke up in the fourth quarter, just a little too late to catch the Eagles, and the Dallas Cowboys appear to have returned from the metaphorical grave in which the Denver Broncos seemed to have buried them a week ago. Check out our straight-up picks for each of the NFL Week 4 matchups. Home teams appear in all caps.

NFL Week 4 SU Picks

📈📈📈: @Vikings receivers And who else? 10 winners (and 5 losers) from Week 3: https://t.co/jof3VrnvRB (via @greggrosenthal) pic.twitter.com/U1YXvE2zkU

— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2017

Thursday, September 28

GREEN BAY over Chicago (8:25pm ET, CBS)

The Packers’ offense didn’t show up until halftime against Cincinnati — and their defense didn’t appear to get to Lambeau until the second quarter. Fortunately, they were playing the Bengals, so they had enough time to fight back and win in overtime. The Bears looked surprisingly solid in their dispatching of the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, but I expect the Packers to learn their lessons from last week and rout the Bears on national television.

Sunday, October 1

New Orleans over Miami (in London, 9:30am ET, FOX)

I picked the Dolphins to win last week, as my “Never Pick Jay Cutler Rule” came into conflict with my “Never Pick the Jets Rule.” Jay Cutler lived down to my expectations to a degree that I did not expect — and so the Jets won running away. This week, I see Drew Brees outperforming Cutler magnificently in NFL Week 4.

NEW ENGLAND over Carolina (1:00pm ET, FOX)

Carolina could only muster 13 points at home against a New Orleans team that has an extremely generous secondary. Now they’re going to New England to take on a Patriots team that will make defensive adjustments after letting Houston hang 33 on them. I don’t see this ending well for the Panthers in NFL Week 4.

DALLAS over L.A. Rams (1:00pm ET, FOX)

I think this will be a close game, thanks to the fact that the Rams’ defensive coordinator is Wade Phillips (who is probably still a little hurt over getting fired from the head coaching position and who still knows the Cowboys’ approach) and to the talent that the defense has. They did just give up a ton of points to San Francisco, but I see them loading the box like Arizona did on Monday and hoping that Dak Prescott can’t get away from their rushers.

Detroit (NL) over MINNESOTA (1:00pm ET, FOX)

The Lions almost beat the defending NFC champions last week. I don’t see them losing to the Vikings with Case Keenum — who won’t replicate his amazing numbers from a week ago.

Tennessee over HOUSTON (1:00pm ET, CBS)

I really enjoyed watching Deshaun Watson grow into his position as the starting quarterback of the Houston Texans last Sunday. But can he replicate that great performance two weeks in a row? The Titans are coming in off an impressive win over the Seattle Seahawks. I see Tennessee winning in a nailbiter as Watson comes away with more lessons…but another loss.

Jacksonville over N.Y. JETS (1:00pm ET, CBS)

Will Josh McCown win two games in a row? Nope. I know, it’s the Jaguars, but they are 2-1 and just hung 44 points on the Ravens. Even at home, I don’t see the Jets keeping up.

CLEVELAND over Cincinnati (1:00pm ET, CBS)

The Browns were favored to beat the Colts — and they almost did. They probably would have a week ago, but Jacoby Brissett has had another week to learn the Indianapolis offense and grow into his position. I see the Browns taking down a disheartened Bengals team that just gave up a huge lead at Lambeau.

BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh (1:00pm ET, CBS)

Don’t let that rout on Sunday morning distract you from the truth about Baltimore — they are a focused team with a solid defense and a balanced offense. The Steelers’ loss last week bothers me more than the Ravens’ — and I see Baltimore moving to 3-1 and taking the lead in the AFC North with this win in NFL Week 4.

ATLANTA over Buffalo (1:00pm ET, CBS)

Atlanta was a matter of inches away from losing to the Detroit Lions before the zebras intervened and used replay to take away Golden Tate’s touchdown at the end of the fourth quarter. Buffalo comes in having taken Denver to the woodshed, with Tyrod Taylor showing more confidence leading the Bills’ offense and Tre’Davious White leading a defense that brought Trevor Siemian back to earth. I think the Falcons win in a close one.

TAMPA BAY over N.Y. Giants (4:05pm ET, FOX)

The Giants’ offense finally woke up against Philadelphia, but it wasn’t until the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay just took a hide-tanning from a Vikings offense led by Case Keenum, so you can be sure that the Buccaneers’ defenders will have a renewed sense of purpose. I see Eli Manning spending a lot of time on his back in this game.

Philadelphia over L.A. CHARGERS (4:05pm ET, FOX)

The Eagles have shown that they can play solid defense for about 10 of the 12 quarters they’ve played this season, and Carson Wentz has shown that he can evade pass rushes, extend plays and make big throws down the field. The Chargers have shown that they can make turnovers at exactly the wrong time and give up big gains in both the rushing and passing games. I see the Eagles winning this one big.

ARIZONA over San Francisco (4:05pm ET, FOX)

The Arizona Cardinals roared down the field for an easy touchdown to open their Monday night tilt with Dallas and it looked like the Cowboys were headed for another embarrassing loss. However, all it took was one missed field goal from Arizona to give the Cowboys some momentum, and they rode it to a win. Can Brian Hoyer lead the San Francisco offense to another huge night — against an Arizona defense that will be looking for redemption? Um, no. Take the Cards in NFL Week 4.

Oakland over DENVER (4:25pm ET, CBS)

No, Trevor Siemian isn’t the next John Elway (or Craig Morton, if you want to go way back). He showed us that against the Buffalo Bills this week. Oakland will solve their offensive issues that showed up against Washington and take a big AFC West showdown in the mountains.

SEATTLE over Indianapolis (8:30pm ET, NBC)

The Seahawks will return home after that embarrassing loss to the Titans and take care of the Colts — but don’t overlook the emergence of Jacoby Brissett running that Indianapolis offense. I see the Seahawks winning in a close one as they get just enough stops on defense.

Monday, October 2

KANSAS CITY over Washington (8:30pm ET, ESPN)

This Monday Night Football edition should feature a pair of power running games, as the Redskins’ Chris Thompson and the Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt square off. Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins are both mobile, still slightly underrated quarterbacks that can get the ball down the field in a hurry. I see the Chiefs winning, but they’ll have to hang on late to do it.