Some NFL teams are really taking off on offense this year, only failing to score when they get in their own way. The Kansas City Chiefs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the L.A. Rams and the Dallas Cowboys come to mind. Other teams are still really struggling on offense, some because they have rookie quarterbacks, and others because they are in the midst of all-around rebuilds. Jacksonville, Houston, the N.Y. Jets, and Miami come to mind here.
As you consider integrating the point total into your NFL betting for the week, take a look at our top suggestions.
NFL News: Week 4 Top O/U Picks
Washington Football Team (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U 48)
This line has shifted from having Washington as a one-point underdog at opening to having Washington as a slight road favorite. Washington is rolling with a backup quarterback in Taylor Heinicke, and Atlanta has devolved into a pedestrian offense that could only put up 17 points in New York against an iffy Giants defense. This will be an ugly early game on Sunday — and the total won’t touch 48. Take the under.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U 42)
Chicago’s offense was brutal with Justin Fields at the controls — but that was against a Cleveland defense that posted nine sacks. Detroit’s defense is not nearly as stout, so Fields should be able to have more room to operate. Detroit is getting solid numbers out of Jared Goff — except when he is under pressure — but Chicago’s defense hasn’t been bothering opponents much. Take the over.
Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins (O/U 42.5)
Miami will have backup Jacoby Brissett running the offense, and he took an extremely conservative approach in an overtime loss to Las Vegas. Indianapolis’ defense is better than the Raiders’, and they won’t make the early slip-ups on that side of the ball that staked Miami to that early 14-0 lead. Indianapolis will have a hobbled Carson Wentz (both ankles) leading their offense again this week, so this should be a very slow game. Take the under.
Tennessee Titans (-7.5) at N.Y. Jets (O/U 46)
Even when the Titans’ offense is rolling, it’s more about grinding out extended drives behind Derrick Henry running the ball. The Jets haven’t been able to get much going at all with quarterback Zach Wilson going through rookie growing pains. Take the under.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers (O/U 52)
San Francisco caught fire on offense in the second half against Green Bay, while Seattle was only able to hang 17 points on Minnesota last week. Seattle hasn’t looked solid since the first half of their overtime loss to Tennessee, and I see this game going in starts and fits. Take the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers (O/U 45.5)
I’m not sure why this point total is where it is, because the Packers have been able to put up points in bunches the last two weeks. Pittsburgh has struggled on offense a bit, but I see Ben Roethlisberger elevating his production in Week 4. Take the over.
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