The Houston Texans come into Week 6 with an 1-4 record — and it seems like it’s been a long time since that home win over Jacksonville in the opener. However, they are 3-2 against the spread, as rookie quarterback Davis Mills is growing into what has become a largely thankless job. This week, they visit the Indianapolis Colts, who turned a 25-9 fourth-quarter lead into an overtime loss, thanks to a defense that lost its spine, a kicking game that allowed a blocked field goal and saw another miss and an offense that became so cautious that it couldn’t gouge a Baltimore defense that was not playing all that well. Can the Colts bounce back, or will the Texans take advantage of that mental collapse?
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NFL Preview: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, October 17)
When: Sunday, October 21, 2020, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
TV: FOX
Radio: WLW 700 AM Cincinnati / WXYT 97.1 FM Detroit
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Indianapolis -10 / O/U 43 // Indianapolis -490 / Houston +360
Why should you bet on the Texans?
Houston is already accustomed to life as a double-digit underdog this season. They were 16-point dogs against Buffalo and ended up losing by 40. However, they were 13-point dogs against Cleveland covered, and they also covered a 9 ½-point spread as underdogs against New England. So while the quality is still down in Houston, it’s not as subterranean as it could be.
It’s also worth noting that the Colts are favorites for the first time this season — and the margin is double digits. The Texans have played competitive ball against some top teams — they were up 14-0 on Cleveland before losing by ten. Indianapolis is not as good as Cleveland, and they’re way below Buffalo, on both sides of the ball. Davis Mills had the best game of his career last week, and he’s about to take on a Colts team that got sliced up by Lamar Jackson down the stretch last week.
Why should you put your money on the Colts?
We just don’t know which Indianapolis team will show up. They pushed the Rams hard in Week 2 and ended up covering. They also lost to Seattle and Tennessee by a possession. When they played Baltimore on Monday night, they did have some injury issues, but they still were able to stake themselves to a 25-9 lead before the bottom fell out.
The offense has been serviceable with Carson Wentz running things. I predicted disaster after his awful finish in Philadelphia, but he is making somewhat better decisions and getting rid of the ball sooner. The defense, under coordinator Matt Eberflus, has not been as solid as it has been in years past. Injuries have something to do with that, but at some point you have to execute, and if you watched the fourth quarter and overtime against Baltimore, the system needs something.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Indianapolis is scoring more than 20 points per game this season, while the Houston offense has trouble sustaining drives on a regular basis. The Colts have Jonathan Taylor to run the ball and take some of the heat off Wentz, but when they go conservative, it’s painful to watch. I think the Colts can pull this out, but I don’t like what I saw last week in terms of mental strength and effort. I like Houston to cover in a 20-16 Colts win.
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