The Denver Broncos got off to a somewhat misleading 3-0 start before losing to Baltimore and Pittsburgh in their last two games. In Pittsburgh, the Broncos fell behind, 24-6, before storming back to make it 27-19. The Broncos had a late drive with a chance to tie, but a late Teddy Bridgewater interception scuttled Denver’s hopes. The Las Vegas Raiders also opened 3-0 and dropped two straight; in these last two games, the offense is only averaging 11.5 points per game. After the resignation of head coach Jon Gruden due to inappropriate content in his emails, the Raiders are definitely a team in flux. Do they break out and use their frustration to win the game, or do the distractions make it easier for the Broncos?
Check out our NFL betting thoughts on this AFC West clash.
NFL Preview: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (Sunday, October 17)
When: Sunday, October 21, 2020, 4:25 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: CBS
Radio: KRLV 920 AM Las Vegas / KOA 850 AM Denver
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Denver -3.5 / O/U 44.5 // Las Vegas +150 / Denver -175
Why should you bet on the Raiders?
Special teams and assistant head coach Rich Bisaccia is now the interim head coach in Las Vegas. The offense started on fire, but Derek Carr has only thrown for 402 yards in the last two games combined. In the season opener, an overtime win over Baltimore, he threw for 435. On the ground, the Raiders are rushing for 78.6 yards per game, but that is somewhat deceiving, as backup quarterback Marcus Mariota had a 31-yard scamper in the opener that has that average six yards higher than it would be otherwise.
Intangibles can go a long way in the NFL. Consider the 38-3 whipping that Green Bay took from New Orleans in the opener, as the Packers were still dealing with the fallout from Aaron Rodgers’ back-and-forth with team management about playing this season. Teams that have an interim coach named often play much harder the following week, depending on their relationship with that coach. Getting rid of Gruden was a must, given the racial undertone of some of the emails that came out, and that could push the locker room to play harder for Bisaccia. The scandal had broken before the team’s Week 5 loss, and it could have played a role in the team’s malaise.
Why should you put your money on the Broncos?
While Bridgewater’s interception was crucial, it was just the first he has thrown in 2021. The offense has plenty of balance, as Javonte Williams has the second most rushing yards of NFL rookies this year, and Melvin Gordon had 110 all-purpose yards against the Steelers. Gordon has played 10 games for the Raiders now and averages 101.1 all-purpose yards per game.
Denver has tried to shore up some injury problems in the wide receiver group. Jerry Jeudy went down to injury in the opener, and K.J. Hamler went on the shelf in Week 3. John Brown got signed to the practice squad and joined the team Wednesday, but his activation status for Sunday has not yet been determined. They need some options down the field, as they have gone just 5 of 26 on third downs over the last two games. The defense will get cornerback Ronald Darby (hamstring) back, but cornerback Mike Ford (knee) is still out after going down in Pittsburgh. Safety Kareem Jackson (back) is still questionable after missing practice Wednesday. Gordon (hip) also missed practice and remains questionable.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
On paper, Las Vegas definitely overperformed in Weeks 1-3, so the last two games may have represented regression to a mean. Denver did not play well in the first half against Pittsburgh. I’ve been a Bridgewater fan since his days at Louisville. I see him guiding the Broncos through an emotional first half, as the Raiders come out with a lot of energy, and taking advantage of those Vegas injuries on defense. I predict a final score of Denver 27, Las Vegas 16.
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