The two games between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills looked like must-watch television coming into 2021. The Bills had gone 13-3, winning the AFC East and pushing Kansas City hard in the AFC Championship. The Dolphins had gone 10-6, just missing out on a trip to the playoffs, thanks to Brian Flores’ ironclad defense and timely quarterback play by Ryan Fitzpatrick — all while introducing rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Now, the Dolphins have already matched their loss total from a year ago, sitting at 1-6, trade rumors are swirling around Tagovailoa, FitzMagic is on Washington’s injured reserve list, and the team is in turmoil. That Week 1 win at New England seems like it happened three years ago. Buffalo, on the other hand, is still a contender, with a 4-2 record through six games that have featured five playoff contenders from a year ago.
As you consider your NFL betting options for this matchup, consider our insights on both teams.
NFL Preview: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, October 31)
When: Sunday, October 31, 2021, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Radio: WQAM 560 AM Miami / WGR 550 AM Buffalo
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAA Odds: Buffalo -13.5 / O/U 48.5 // Miami +600 / Buffalo -900
Why should you bet on the Dolphins?
Tua Tagovailoa had to leave the Dolphins’ Week 2 tilt with Buffalo thanks to injury. In Week 7, the Dolphins lost, but Tagovailoa had four touchdown passes. The Dolphins might let him air it out, making him as attractive as possible in a potential trade for Houston’s Deshaun Watson. Since he came back from that injury, Tagovailoa has played fairly well, and Jaylen Waddle has turned into a talented target. However, the Dolphins don’t run the ball well, which puts more pressure on Tagovailoa than is necessary.
Pride is a powerful motivator, and with a point spread of almost two touchdowns, the Dolphins don’t have to play all that great to cover. The Bills will not have tight end Dawson Knox, who will miss again due to injury, which takes one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets out of the equation. However, with Emmanuel Sanders, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley running routes, the Bills still do have a lot of targets for the Dolphins to cover. If you like Miami, you see the Bills relaxing a bit coming out of the bye — although given the fact that they lost a tough game going in, that is not all that reliable a premise.
Why should you put your money on the Bills?
Miami comes in with injuries to Byron Jones, Xavien Howard, Brandon Jones and Jason McCourty — all defensive backs that may struggle with stopping the Buffalo wide receivers. The Bills do come into this game rested and ready to move the ball. With a sweep of the Dolphins, that would give the Bills some more breathing space in the division, as New England (3-4) sits in second place.
When Buffalo lost to Tennessee, they simply could not stop Derrick Henry and the running game. They aren’t the first team to struggle in that regard — although it is also worth noting that the Titans lost to the New York Jets before figuring things out to beat Buffalo and Kansas City in succession. The Dolphins don’t have anything close to Derrick Henry in their running game, and the Buffalo pass rush will be able to focus on shutting down Tagovailoa.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Buffalo should come out of the bye with focus, having had two weeks to analyze what Miami likes to do. The Bills just need to focus on sustained drives and keeping the Miami offense on the sideline. They’ve shown that they can do that reliably since that Week 1 loss; in their loss to Tennessee, they did plenty of scoring, but they just couldn’t get stops against the Titans’ rushing attack. I predict a final score of Buffalo 38, Miami 13.
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