The New Orleans Saints have quietly built a 4-2 record, just 1 ½ games behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South. This season started out with a great deal of inconsistency, as the Saints demolished Green Bay in Week 1, only to get routed by Carolina, a team that is now 3-4, the following week. An impressive win in New England preceded an embarrassing home overtime loss to the hapless Giants. In the last two games, though, the Saints have outclassed Washington and found just enough ways to solve Seattle’s defense. Next up is a visit from their divisional rivals. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) have won four in a row since their season’s lone setback, a 34-24 defeat in Los Angeles at the hands of the Rams. They eked out a win at New England the next week before drubbing Miami, fighting off Philadelphia on a Thursday night and then thrashing Chicago.
What can we expect when these two divisional rivals meet? Check out our online NFL betting insights.
NFL Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, October 31)
When: Sunday, October 31, 2021, 4:25 pm ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV: FOX
Radio: WXTB 97.9 FM Tampa / WWL 870 AM New Orleans
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAA Odds: Tampa Bay -5.5 / O/U 50 // Tampa Bay -240 / New Orleans +200
Why should you bet on the Buccaneers?
During this four-game winning streak, Tampa Bay has only covered twice, and those covers both came at home. They did not cover at New England or at Philadelphia, and neither of those defenses has the statistical record that New Orleans’ does. The Patriots mixed up coverages and rush schemes to keep Tom Brady guessing, and it worked. I’m not sure that Sean Payton’s defense can do the same thing this time, given the struggles the Saints’ pass defense has had this season.
Tampa Bay’s rushing defense leads the NFL, permitting just 67.4 yards per game. This should force the Saints, already a pass-heavy team, to put the ball in Jameis Winston’s hands even more. This didn’t work well when Winston was slinging the ball around in Tampa Bay — he threw a lot of touchdown passes, but he also turned the ball over a lot. The turnovers have been down for the most part this season, but the team hasn’t had to lean on his arm as heavily.
Why should you put your money on the Saints?
The Saints’ success has primarily come as a result of their defense. The unit ranks third in the NFL in rushing defense (80.8 yards permitted per game) and eighth in total defense (331.5 yards per game). However, when it comes to the passing game, the Saints’ defense has been more forgiving. You should expect the Buccaneers to come out firing in the passing game; the Saints take a lot of pass interference penalties, so this could turn into a problem for New Orleans.
On the other side of the equation, when Tampa Bay has been vulnerable on defense, that has come through the air, as they permit 264.7 passing yards per contest. The Saints not only have quality targets down the field, they also have Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield and occasionally lining up in the slot. Those combinations should allow the Saints to sustain drives. The rainy conditions in Seattle turned the game into an offensive slog; I would not expect Winston to have as much trouble leading drives in a dome.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
The Saints are an interesting pick, both on the moneyline and against the spread. Tampa Bay has won just once in the last six meetings of this rivalry — although the road team has covered in five of the last seven meetings. Tom Brady saw the Saints beat him both times in the regular season last year — although Tampa Bay turned the tables in the playoffs. A spread of almost two field could be a lot given that the Saints have beaten the Buccaneers two out of three times in the Tom Brady era. However, Drew Brees was the quarterback for those wins, and Jameis Winston has put together two dominant performances in six games so far. He will have a chip on his shoulder against his former team, but it’s hard to say whether that will be enough against this stout Tampa Bay pass rush. I predict a final score of Tampa Bay 33, New Orleans 20. I am also confident about the “over” hitting in this game, so make that a play as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints : Bet the Game Today
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