When the line on this game opened, Green Bay was a one-point favorite to come to Kansas City and beat a Chiefs team that had to rally late to beat the hapless New York Giants. Since the line opened, though, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19, opening up a firestorm that has revealed that Rodgers misled the press about his vaccination status back before the season began and perhaps making the team vulnerable to league discipline. The Chiefs are, frankly, a mess right now, with their defense unable to get stops against competitive teams. Green Bay’s Jordan Love will make his first career start at quarterback, and while the team gets Marquez Valdes-Scantling back at wide receiver, Davante Adams will miss the game. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 19 turnovers coming into this game, and the Packers have an opportunistic game. Should the Chiefs really be favored by just over a touchdown here?
The NFL betting action has pulled the line in this direction, and we’ll tell you whether we agree.
NFL Preview: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, November 7)
When: Sunday, November 7, 2021, 4:25 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: FOX
Radio: WTMJ 620 AM Milwaukee / WDAF 106.5 FM Kansas City
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Kansas City -7.5 / O/U 47.5 // Green Bay +270 / Kansas City -340
Why should you bet on the Packers?
If you’re worried about Green Bay losing a few players to COVID-19, remember that the team did not have Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring), Davante Adams (COVID-19) or Allen Lazard (COVID-19) last week and still knocked off the unbeaten Cardinals. The team also had several injuries on the defensive side of the ball. With Jordan Love, the vast majority of his experience came during a mandatory minicamp and voluntary workouts back in the summer, when Rodgers was still holding out.
The only regular season action that Love has had came in some mop-up duty in the team’s opening week loss to New Orleans. He will start at least one game for the Pack, as the NFL’s COVID-19 protocols require that players who test positive isolate for a ten-day period. It will be interesting to see how ably he leads the Packers’ offense in meaningful regular-season action for the first time. If you like Green Bay, you see Love letting the talent around him, including tailback Aaron Jones, take care of moving the ball and just deliver it to the skill players. This approach worked for the Jets last week, as Mike White led the team to a win over Cincinnati. It also worked for the Saints, who won with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, and for the Cowboys, who had backup Cooper Rush leading the offense.
Why should you put your money on the Chiefs?
Kansas City has not been able to generate much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which means that their secondary has been getting picked apart down the field. They picked up Melvin Ingram before the trade deadline to add a spark to their defense, and we’ll see if he can bring his pass rush skills to Arrowhead.
The problems with the Chiefs’ offense haven’t had much to do with moving the ball. Penalties and turnovers have plagued the team, though, bringing promising drives to a halt. Mahomes (as mentioned above) leads the NFL in turnovers; for the season, the team has a -11 turnover differential after two giveaways against the Giants. In the penalty department, they had a dozen penalties for 103 yards. With respect to offense, it would be helpful if wide receiver Josh Gordon can contribute a bit more to the team’s production; he has had a hard time mastering and meshing with the Chiefs’ offensive scheme. If you like the Chiefs, you see them getting after Jordan Love and doing a much better job of ball security against a Green Bay defense that has grabbed enough takeaways for the team to have a +8 turnover margin.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
This line has blown up since the news of Rodgers’ absence came out. The problem is that the Chiefs are still turnover-prone, and their defense still hasn’t shown that it can handle opposing offenses for four quarters. So if the Packers hang around, Love builds confidence and ends up delivering a late touchdown, that could either lead to a backdoor cover or a straight up upset. I’m predicting a final score of Green Bay 27, Kansas City 23.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs : Bet the Game Today
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