Week 18 of the 2023 NFL regular season is upon us, but there are still five of 14 playoff berths to be claimed. In the NFC, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Detroit, Dallas and the Rams have staked claims to five of the seven spots. In the AFC, Baltimore, Miami, Cleveland and Kansas City have clinched postseason berths, leaving three open spots. In the AFC, four teams have 9-7 records – including the three teams tied for the AFC South lead. Let’s break down the NFL Wild Card, various scenarios and discuss how this should influence your NFL betting.
NFL Wild Card Update: AFC Playoff Standings, Odds & Betting Picks
AFC Seeds Entering Week 18
| Baltimore Ravens (13-3) (clinched bye) |
| Miami Dolphins (11-5) (clinched playoff spot) |
| Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) (clinched AFC West title) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) |
| Cleveland Browns (11-5) (clinched playoff spot) |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6) |
| Indianapolis Colts (9-7) |
AFC Teams Still Alive Entering Week 18
| Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) |
| Houston Texans (9-7) |
The Jacksonville Jaguars clinch the AFC South title with a win at Tennessee. They also win the division if they tie and the Indianapolis-Houston game ends in a tie. They clinch a playoff berth if they tie AND Pittsburgh loses or ties OR Pittsburgh loses, Denver loses or ties, AND Indianapolis-Houston does not end in a tie.
The Buffalo Bills clinch the AFC East with a win at Miami. They clinch a playoff spot if they tie Miami, Pittsburgh loses or ties, Jacksonville loses or ties, OR Houston-Indianapolis ends in a tie.
The Miami Dolphins are in the playoffs but clinch the AFC EAst title if they beat or tie Buffalo on Sunday night.
The Pittsburgh Steelers need the most help. They play at Baltimore on Saturday, and if they win, AND Buffalo loses, Jacksonville loses or ties, OR Houston and Indianapolis tie, they get in. They also get in if they tie Baltimore, Jacksonville loses, AND Houston-Indianapolis does not end in a tie. They can even lose to Baltimore and get in, but Jacksonville has to lose, Denver has to win, AND Houston and Indianapolis cannot tie.
The Indianapolis Colts would win the AFC South if they beat Houston on Saturday night and Jacksonville loses or ties. They would also win the division if they tie Houston and Jacksonville loses. They clinch a playoff berth with a win over Houston OR a tie and a Pittsburgh tie or loss.
The Houston Texans clinch the AFC South title if they beat Indianapolis Saturday night OR Jacksonville ties or loses. They clinch a playoff berth with a win OR a tie, but if they tie, Jacksonville must lose and Pittsburgh must lose or tie to get that berth.
The odds favor Jacksonville to win, and I see the Colts beating Houston at home, with Jonathan Taylor back running the ball. Can Pittsburgh beat Baltimore with Lamar Jackson resting for the Ravens? Mason Rudolph will start at quarterback, even though Kenny Pickett has been medically cleared, which could lead to a major locker-room situation. Rudolph tends to throw a lot of interceptions but has a cannon of an arm, and I see the Ravens winning even with a backup quarterback – which means that the wild card berths would go to Cleveland, Buffalo, and Indianapolis.
NFL Wild Card and Odds to Win 2024 AFC Championship
| Baltimore Ravens +130 |
| Buffalo Bills +350 |
| Kansas City Chiefs +425 |
| Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Cleveland Browns +1200 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars +2000 |
| Houston Texans +5000 |
| Indianapolis Colts +6000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers +10000 |
| AFC Lines to Win |
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