As we get ready for the first week of the NFL postseason, the top two sports betting favorites to win it all are still the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers – the top seeds in the NFC and the AFC. However, with snow and freezing temperatures moving in and some inconsistent division winners preparing to host wild-card games, we know that some of the wild-card teams have shots to win it all. Let’s look at each of the six NFL Wild Card clubs and examine their odds and real chances of winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
NFL Wild Card Update: Wild Card Team Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII
NFC Wild Card Team Odds
- Philadelphia Eagles +1400
- L.A. Rams +5000
- Green Bay Packers +10000
I don’t trust Philadelphia right now, not after that 1-5 finish. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both hobbling around, and Jalen Hurts’ knee isn’t quite right. That would be OK if the Eagles still had that ironclad defense, but their coverage unit ranks 24th in the nation according to Pro Football Focus, allowing the second-most touchdowns (35) in the league when in coverage.
The Rams are a dangerous team, and they run the ball well, with the second-lowest stuff rate in the league (17.5%). They also have both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy and running routes, and they face a Detroit team that struggles to cover in the secondary. However, the Rams’ secondary has been even more porous this season, which could make the wild-card game against Detroit a dome-stadium track meet.
Green Bay has a solid quarterback in Jordan Love, with 32 touchdown passes, second to Dallas’ Dak Prescott. The run blocking needs work, which is a shame given the beasts they have at tailback in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The Packers’ secondary gives up a ton of big plays, which should lead to an early exit against the Cowboys, but we all know how inconsistent Dallas is in the postseason.
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AFC Wild Card Team Odds
- Miami Dolphins +1600
- Cleveland Browns +3100
- Pittsburgh Steelers +13000
Miami has a track-meet offense, especially with Jaylen Waddle returning to run routes with Tyreek Hill. However, the weather forecast for the Dolphins’ wild-card game in Kansas City has gotten even gloomier, with a game-time temperature of -5 degrees projected. It’s hard to feel the ball in those temperatures, let alone throw accurate deep balls. If the Dolphins somehow make it through that deep freeze, then I’ll take them more seriously, but for now I don’t see them fulfilling these odds.
Cleveland is getting Amari Cooper back for the wild-card date with Houston and gets to play in a dome while much of the nation will be under wintry weather. Their pass rush is elite, ranking first in pass rush win rate and second in pressure rate. Myles Garrett was tops in the league in individual pass rush win rate at 27.5%. Quarterback play was an issue for much of the season, but Joe Flacco has turned back the clock and is clicking in the passing game. Of the three wild-card teams in the AFC, the Browns are the best bet to win it all.
Pittsburgh is happy to be in the postseason. Mason Rudolph was an exciting quarterback at Oklahoma State and has shown flashes of greatness down the stretch, but against Josh Allen with snow on the ground? Anything can happen, of course, but even if the Steelers emerge from that chaos and knock off the Bills, they would have two more daunting road games to win.
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Super Bowl 58 Winner Odds
| San Francisco 49ers | +200 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +330 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1600 |
| Miami Dolphins | +1800 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +550 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +800 |
| Detroit Lions | +2000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +2800 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +3300 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6600 |
| Houston Texans | +4500 |
| Green Bay Packers | +8000 |
| Pittburgh Steelers | +10000 |
| Super Bowls Lines to Win | |
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NFL Wild Card
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NFL Wild Card Update: Which Wild Card Teams Can Win the Super Bowl?
Week 18 of the 2023 NFL regular season brought more than a few surprises. The Buffalo Bills went to Miami and beat the Dolphins, finishing on a five-game winning streak that turned a 6-6 start into an AFC East title at 11-6. Five weeks ago, the Bills were not in the top seven slots in the AFC, but now they enter as the 2-seed in the conference and host a playoff game. The Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders, 38-10, to win the NFC East – thanks in large part to the utter collapse of the Philadelphia Eagles down the stretch, and now the Cowboys hold the 2-seed in the NFC. Dallas and Buffalo are the only teams in the NFL Wild Card round favored to win by at least a touchdown as they welcome Green Bay and Pittsburgh, respectively. Of the six wild-card teams, though, which ones could beat the NFL betting odds and win a Super Bowl? Check out our thoughts on each team’s chances.
NFC Wild Cards
5. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles earned their five-seed with that 10-1 start, but they finished the season 1-5 to limp into the playoffs at 1-6 after a 27-10 loss to the Giants in Week 18 that was not as close as the final score indicated. Both of their top wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, have injury issues that could limit their effectiveness in the postseason, and the Eagles’ defense has turned porous. Tampa Bay has both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans healthy, and while the Buccaneers have struggled this season, they finished with five wins in their last six games, including a 14-point win at Tampa Bay and an 18-point win over Jacksonville. The Eagles will have a hard time getting past the Buccaneers, let alone to the Super Bowl. Not a chance.
6. L.A. Rams
Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit with the Rams in their first postseason matchup since the Lions shipped him to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff. Now Stafford returns to Detroit as the Lions prepare for their first home postseason game since 1993. Detroit lost rookie tight end Sam LaPorta with a bone bruise and a hyperextended knee on Sunday in the Lions’ romp over the Minnesota Vikings. LaPorta has been a huge part of the Lions’ offensive success this season, and having him on the shelf could throw a wrench in the Lions’ hopes of a deep playoff run. The Rams have both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy and productive, which gives Stafford two weapons who could do damage against a Detroit secondary that has given up more than its share of big plays. The Rams come into the playoffs having won four in a row and seven of eight – and the only loss in that stretch coming in overtime in Baltimore. If they can get the road win in Detroit, things get interesting if they return to San Francisco, where they beat the 49ers in Week 18. A dangerous wild card.
7. Green Bay Packers
The Packers open in Dallas, where the Cowboys are weighed down by a sense of history. Home playoff games have turned AT&T Stadium into a house of horrors, most recently two year ago when the Cowboys blew a winnable home wild-card game against the San Francisco 49ers. The Packers have an offense that can capitalize on both of the Cowboys’ weaknesses on defense: stopping the run up the middle and stopping chunk plays in the passing game. Jordan Love is a mobile quarterback who could frustrate the Cowboys, and it doesn’t take much to make the Cowboys crumble mentally. Even if the Packers get by the Cowboys, though, the rest of the NFC bracket should be able to stop Green Bay. Mildly dangerous.
AFC Wild Cards
5. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland rolled over Houston in Week 16, 36-22. However, the Texans did not have C.J. Stroud at quarterback. He is back and showed in Week 18 that he can make a huge statement in just a single play. He and Nico Collins are the anchors of an offense that can torch opponents. The Browns bring Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper, a duo that has turned the Browns into an unexpectedly productive offense. The ground game can do enough damage with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt to maintain balance, and the defense, led by Myles Garrett, can force enough third-and-longs to frustrate the Texans. This combination of Joe Flacco’s resurgence and that stout defense makes the Browns a real threat to get to Baltimore for the AFC Championship – and perhaps even further.
6. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ loss to Buffalo on Sunday night means that they have to go to Kansas City and play the Chiefs at night in freezing temperatures. Week 18 was a day of rest for the Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and other top players getting to watch, while the Dolphins had to invest maximum effort in the loss to Buffalo. Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle missed Week 18 due to injury, but both are expected to return to face the Chiefs. The teams played in Germany earlier this year, and the Chiefs held the Dolphins to just 14 points. The Dolphins have a dangerous high-octane offense, but freezing temperatures tend to cool offenses like that off and make defense a priority. If the Dolphins can get by the Chiefs, though, they would have to get through another cold-weather stadium in Baltimore, at the very least, to get to the Super Bowl. Mildly dangerous.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh heads to Buffalo to take on a Bills team that has not lost since Thanksgiving. The Steelers were able to hold off the Baltimore reserves and get into the playoffs, but now they face a Buffalo offense that has shown that, if they can maintain ball security, they can score on every drive. The Steelers need to decide whether to keep rolling with Mason Rudolph at quarterback or hand the ball back to starter Kenny Pickett. Rudolph has put up big numbers the last three weeks but is also prone to the backbreaking turnover. Not a chance.
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NFL Wild Card Update: Who Will Get One?
Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season ended with not one, but two surprising games that could influence the playoffs and NFL Wild Card. The Tennessee Titans went to Miami as 14-point underdogs but rode Derrick Henry to a comeback win. The New York Giants hosted the Green Bay Packers, who were coming off wins over Detroit and Kansas City, but it was the G-men who prevailed on a late field goal, thanks to a terrific drive led by third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito – who has the Giants on a three-game winning streak. Let’s look at the latest playoff standings as you think about managing your NFL betting.
NFC Playoff Seeding after Week 14
| San Francisco 49ers (10-3) |
| Dallas Cowboys (10-3) |
| Detroit Lions (9-4) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) |
| Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) |
| Minnesota Vikings (7-6) |
| Green Bay Packers (6-7) |
| L.A. Rams (6-7) |
| Seattle Seahawks (6-7) |
| Atlanta Falcons (6-7) |
| New Orleans Saints (6-7) |
| N.Y. Giants (5-8) |
| Chicago Bears (5-8) |
Yes, Green Bay still has the seventh and final playoff slot in the NFC, but there are five other teams with a 6-7 record. The Packers do have a relatively easy finish to the schedule; their only opponent with a record above .500 is Minnesota – and the Vikings used Nick Mullens to get the game-winning drive in that dreadful 3-0 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. That win was the lowest scoring indoor game in NFL history. This week, the Packers play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team sitting at 6-7 also. The Packers need to bounce back from a couple of troubling trends that re-emerged. Jordan Love is turning the ball over again, losing a fumble and throwing a pick in back-to-back possessions in the second quarter. The Packers also fumbled a punt return in the third quarter – and allowed 209 rushing yards, 86 from Saquon Barkley and 71 from DeVito. Four teams have now run for more than 200 yards against Green Bay this season. A loss to Tampa Bay wouldn’t end things, but it would make things much more difficult, given the logjam at 6-7 right now.
AFC Playoff Seeding after Week 14
| Baltimore Ravens (10-3) |
| Miami Dolphins (9-3) |
| Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) |
| Cleveland Browns (8-5) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) |
| Indianapolis Colts (7-6) |
| Houston Texans (7-6) |
| Denver Broncos (7-6) |
| Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) |
| Buffalo Bills (7-6) |
| L.A. Chargers (5-8) |
| Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) |
| N.Y. Jets (5-8) |
| Tennessee Titans (5-8) |
Teams that have had a chance to take the top seed in the AFC thanks to Kansas City’s slide are finding it tougher than they thought. The Jaguars have dropped two in a row since getting that opportunity, and the Miami Dolphins turned a 27-13 lead into a 28-27 loss last night. It didn’t take much to turn the tide: the Titans had handed Miami the game thanks to a muffed punt and a bad pitch on two consecutive plays in the fourth quarter that gave the Dolphins that lead. Teams had dropped 767 games in a row when losing by 14 points in the last three minutes until Monday. Tyreek Hill sprained an ankle in the second drive of the game, but according to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, his wife texted him at halftime that he had better get back in the game. He had two catches for 48 yards in the third quarter but started limping again, and the offense just couldn’t recover. The next three games feature the Jets, Cowboys and Ravens, and suddenly things look tough for the Dolphins too.
Elsewhere in the AFC, the Browns have now won games with four different starting quarterbacks this season after Joe Flacco led the team to a 31-27 nailbiter over Jacksonville. The fifth, sixth and seventh seeds in the AFC right now are using backup quarterbacks – as is tenth-place Cincinnati, where Jake Browning is showing that things maybe aren’t that scary with Joe Burrow on the shelf.
