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NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Playoffs Betting Guide

NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Playoffs Betting Guide

Written by on January 1, 2025

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NFL Wild Card Handicapping: With Week 18 of the NFL regular season coming this weekend, that means that we’re only about 10 days away from the first wild-card playoff games.

In the NFC, an unclaimed playoff spot remains, with the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vying for the NFC South title.

The winner secures a first-round home playoff game against a 14-win fifth seed from the Vikings-Lions matchup.

In the AFC, the Denver Broncos can lock down the seventh spot in the playoffs with a win over Kansas City, but if they falter, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami Dolphins, both 8-8, could swoop in and get the seventh seed.

As you start to think about the wild-card round of the playoffs, the way you should approach your online betting choices will be significantly different.

Read on to get some tips about how to handicap these picks.

 

NFL Wild Card Handicapping: Betting Guide for Playoffs

 

Remember that motivation works differently in the playoffs

Well, this is almost always true. Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles turned a 10-1 start into an 11-6 finish and a wild-card berth that took them to Tampa Bay. The morale and execution issues that had plagued them in the second half of the season did not improve, even with the trip to the playoffs, and Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers took them to the woodshed.

Mostly, though, you should see motivation that is more even. You’ll still see differences in terms of talent and system, but both teams should play hungry. This will normally lead to games that are more intense from start to finish, and both teams should be better prepared. The teams that have seen their systems compromised (such as the Chicago Bears and the New York Giants this year) aren’t on anyone’s schedule this time around.

This doesn’t mean that teams won’t find advantages and leverage them. Last year, Green Bay went to Dallas and took advantage of Cowboy turnovers and sloppy defense to build a large lead. However, you’ll also see more teams play down to the wire. So while half the NFL slate might be easy picks, against the moneyline, from one week to the next, this is not the case during the wild-card round. Because of the more even intangibles, the lines will usually be smaller, so you’ll have more research to do about the in-game variables.

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Mismatches might happen, but not nearly as often

This year, the matchups between the 4- and 5-seeds could be fairly ugly for the 4-seeds. In the NFC, the 4-seed will either be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Atlanta Falcons. While the Buccaneers have a tough, gritty quarterback in Baker Mayfield, a Hall of Fame receiver in Mike Evans, and a terrific young tailback in Bucky Irving, consistency has been an issue. If the Bucs lose in Week 18, and we see the Falcons instead, that would put a rookie starting his fourth game at quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. While Penix has played well so far in the NFL, having to face the pressure of the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings could get out of hand in a hurry.

AFC

In the AFC, the 4-seed is going to be the Houston Texans. The 5-seed will likely be the Pittsburgh Steelers, who could enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The Steelers have a rejuvenated veteran quarterback in Russell Wilson and a punishing running back in Najee Harris. Wide receiver George Pickens is back from his hamstring injury, so the Steelers should have enough at the skill positions to push the rhythm.

The matchups between the 2- and 7-seeds could get out of hand also, particularly in the AFC. Buffalo would likely see Denver or Cincinnati in the AFC, and while Buffalo’s defense could be vulnerable, especially against the Bengals, they also have the offense to take either of the other two teams apart. In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles could end up with either Washington or Green Bay. Washington already beat Philadelphia once this season, and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is still working his way back from the concussion protocol. He’s unlikely to play in Week 18, so he might have some rust to shake off in the wild-card game.

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NFL Wild Card Handicapping Check out the injury reports every day

One key difference between the regular season and the playoffs is that, in the playoffs, it takes a more significant injury to keep a player off the field. The Dallas Cowboys shut down their top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, after Week 16 because of his injured right shoulder. If the Cowboys hadn’t been eliminated from the playoffs, though, he would still be out there on the field.

There are some cases when players can’t go, such as when Brock Purdy tore his UCL two seasons ago in the NFC Championship against Philadelphia, but take close looks not just at the injury reports but also at the comments that head coaches have about any key players who are on those reports, particularly players listed as doubtful. When a player is questionable, during the playoffs, they’re almost certainly going to play. If they’re doubtful, though, that means that they actually might miss the game.

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Prepare for fewer betting opportunities per week

The wild-card round will have six games. On a regular-season weekend, you’ll have as many as 16 games, assuming there aren’t any teams on bye weeks. The overall betting action actually increases during the playoffs, which means there is more action on each game. That can push the line into some imbalances, though, as hobby bettors enter the market and perhaps go with the home team automatically, even though there are compelling reasons to take the visiting team (as in the matchup between the 4- and 5-seeds).

There are also bettors who enter the market simply looking to support their favorite team with a wager, no matter what the likelihood is of that wager succeeding. In those cases, the lines can wander – although the sharp bettors will take advantage of those movements and put enough action down to bring the lines back where they should be. This means that you’ll want to compare the different spreads and moneylines to find the ones that give you the most profit for the outcomes that your research tells you to back.

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Home field advantage is usually an advantage

Obviously, having to travel in the first round is a logistical disadvantage for any team. Then there’s playing in front of a hostile crowd. Even if the road team is favored in the wild-card round, these are factors that the bookmakers acknowledge when they set point spreads and moneylines. There are some cases, though, when home field means much more.

A warm-weather team, or a team that usually plays in a dome, faces a statistically significant problem heading to a cold-weather city, such as if the Miami Dolphins were to start their postseason in Buffalo. This doesn’t always play out (as when Jimmy G led the San Francisco 49ers to a win at snowy Lambeau Field a few years back), but it’s pretty reliable, all other factors aside.

The excitement of the wild-card round of the playoffs is almost upon us. Take advantage of these tips when you start planning your wagers – and don’t let your emotions get the best of you. Take the time to do the research you need to figure out which odds and point spreads give you the most opportunity for profit – and then enjoy the action!

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