Brock Purdy enters the NFL playoffs as a third-string quarterback, but he’s far from the first backup signal-caller with a chance to write a terrific postseason story. The St. Louis Rams went to a Super Bowl in 1999 with a backup quarterback, Kurt Warner, who would end up in the Hall of Fame. Even more obscure quarterbacks have shone in the postseason, though. Consider third-stringer Earl Morrall, who emerged from the shadow of Johnny Unitas to lead the Baltimore Colts to a Super Bowl V win. Frank Reich came off the bench in relief of Jim Kelly and turned a 35-3 halftime deficit against the then-Houston Oilers into a 38-35 win. Let’s take a look at each of this weekend’s wild card games as you consider how to manage your NFL Playoffs betting on the point totals.
NFL News: Wild Card O/U Picks
→ Saturday, January 14
Seattle Seahawks (+10) at San Francisco 49ers (O/U 43) (4:30 pm ET, FOX)
Brock Purdy has a perfect 5-0 record as the 49ers’ starter, and the key has been ball security, as the Niners have a +9 turnover differential over that stretch. Geno Smith was able to move the ball for Seattle against this stifling San Francisco defense, throwing for 432 yards in the two games – both San Francisco wins. The 49ers can get it done in the red zone, as George Kittle has caught seven touchdown passes in the last four games. Take the over.
L.A. Chargers (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 47.5) (8:15 pm ET, NBC)
Jacksonville demolished the Chargers on the road during the regular season, and the Jaguars also ran off four straight wins to finish the regular season. With that said, they did need a scoop-and-score fumble recovery to beat a Tennessee Titans team that was playing a practice-squad quarterback at home. Both Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are making their postseason debuts, but once the adrenalin stops pumping, this should be a high-scoring affair. Take the over.
→ Sunday, January 15
Miami Dolphins (+11) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 44.5) (1:00 pm ET, CBS)
The Bills went 7-1 at home during the regular season, and while their defense can be intimidating, they also have moments when they give up quite a few points. Miami might have Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, but for now, he is in the concussion protocol, and Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a finger dislocation. The Dolphins do have Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill running routes, so I would expect a couple of big plays, but I also expect an avalanche of offense from the Bills. Take the over.
N.Y. Giants (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings (O/U 48.5) (4:30 pm ET, FOX)
The Giants have the sort of defense that could gum up the works of the Vikings’ offense, which has a way of falling apart at the wrong time. Kirk Cousins has a cannon of an arm and immense talent, but he has a way of making bad decisions under pressure in big games, as we saw in the Week 17 debacle in Green Bay. The Giants will have a well-rested Daniel Jones, but the Giants’ offense succeeds when it can move at a grinding pace. Take the under.
Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 44) (8:15 pm ET, NBC)
We don’t know whether Lamar Jackson’s knee has healed enough for him to play in the postseason, but he hasn’t taken the field since Week 13. The Bengals finished another regular season on a high note, winning eight straight and permitting just 19.8 points per game to the opposition. Joe Burrow has not had the success he had against Baltimore last year, but the Bengals are the team on a roll and they get this game at home. Take the under.
→ Monday, January 16
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 45.5) (8:15 pm ET, ABC/ESPN)
These teams met in Week 1, and Tampa Bay won, 19-3 – and Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott left with an injury that would keep him out until after Week 6. Tampa Bay’s offense has not been solid the last few weeks, although they have ground a number of comeback wins to finish 8-9 and as NFC South champions. The Cowboys are 12-5, but they have the pressure of fan expectations on their backs. Dallas has not won a playoff game on the road in 30 years, and Dallas has never beaten Tom Brady, going 0-7 against the future Hall of Famer. The Cowboys’ offense only mustered six points against Washington last week. Take the under.
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