Need some NFL Wild Card Round Betting Advice? With the 2024 NFL regular season now in the books, it’s time to get ready for the craziness of the wild-card round of the playoffs.
Wild-card teams have been crashing playoff parties and making deep runs since the end of the 1979 season, when the L.A. Rams, led by quarterback Vince Ferragamo, became the first wild-card team to make it to a Super Bowl.
They fell short against the Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-19, but they made history nonetheless.
We’ve had some other wild-card teams do even more – both of the New York Giants’ Super Bowl wins with Eli Manning at quarterback saw the G-men go on the road for three rounds to get to the Super Bowl and then win the whole thing.
Remember, of course, that while upsets happen, they’re called “upsets” for a reason. The NFL is a league that offers considerable parity, and the sports betting market reflects that in the point spreads and moneylines.
Even so, there are times when imbalances emerge, and with the right amount of research, you can take advantage and make money.
Read on to get some tips for wild-card betting as well as some insights about the six matchups coming this weekend.
NFL Wild Card Round Betting Advice – NFL Odds Today
Take a closer look at team form
Obviously, regular-season records tell you something about a team, But you also want to look at how teams are playing at the end of the season. For example, in the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens finished 12-5 and won the division, while the Pittsburgh Steelers finished two games back at 10-7.
When the Steelers visit the Ravens in the wild-card round, though, you might be tempted to look at the Steelers as a potential upset pick because of prior history with the Ravens. You should also bear in mind, though, that the Steelers have lost four in a row and five of their last seven down the stretch, while the Ravens enter the playoffs on a four-game winning streak. Some other questions to bear in mind include looking at team form against other teams that made the playoffs.
Some trends here are more important than others, of course. Sure, the Buffalo Bills lost to lowly New England in Week 18. However, the Bills had already locked in the 2-seed on the AFC side of the playoff bracket. Even with the loss, they finished with a 13-4 record and a +157 point differential on the season.
^Matchups make a difference
Home-field advantage has historically been significant in determining playoff outcomes. Crowd noise is one factor, and so are environmental issues. Teams who play in domes or in warm-weather cities often find themselves playing in cold temperatures and even dealing with winter weather in the playoffs, and that can cause significant problems. One exception was the divisional playoff matchup between San Francisco and Green Bay in January 2022. The 49ers play in northern California, where the weather is just about always moderate. They headed to Lambeau Field on a snowy night and beat the top-seeded Packers, 13-10, in a game where the 49ers’ only touchdown came on a blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown. However, these notable stories are exceptions for a reason.
What about coaching matchups?
Some coaches have delivered in the postseason, while others are still looking to establish that playoff reputation. We have an example of that this year as the L.A. Rams host the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round. The Vikings come in off a thumping at the hands of the Detroit Lions and have already lost to the Rams at SoFi Stadium once this year. If we add to this Sean McVay’s terrific playoff record with the Rams – and Vikings coach Kevin McConnell’s 0-1 career postseason record that includes a disappointing home loss in the wild-card round to the New York Giants two seasons ago – then the case for taking the Rams in this game becomes even stronger.
NFL Wild Card Round Betting: Injury Reports
You’ll also want to take a close look at this. When star players are on the shelf, that dominates the news, so that’s easy to find. However, having your contributors on the offensive and defensive lines is huge. Just ask Patrick Mahomes how important the injuries on the O-line were when the Chiefs got taken to the woodshed by Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV, which the Bucs won, 31-9, mostly because the Chiefs couldn’t get anything going with the ball because their patchwork line of backups couldn’t open holes in the running game or give Mahomes any time in the pocket at all.
^What are the key betting markets?
You can place bets on the spread. Generally, a team will get three points simply for hosting the game, so if you see that a home team is a three-point favorite in a matchup, that tells you that the sports betting market views the game as a toss-up. Then there’s the moneyline, which involves picking a winner. The point spread and moneyline are both designed to show favorites and underdogs, but the moneyline bakes that into the wager. For example, if you see a matchup that has Philadelphia -180 / Green Bay +170, that means that if you want to bet on the Eagles, you have to bet $180 to win $100 and take home $280. If you want to take the Packers, you would bet $100 to win $170 and take home $270.
You can also bet on the point total, taking the “over” or the “under.” If the books set a point total at 43 ½ points, then you would either wager “over” or “under” for the combined total score of the game. Sometimes this number will shift with the action; with some books, though, you will see the moneylines on either side of that number shift as action pours in on one side or the other.
There are also a wide variety of prop bets. You really see this explode for the Super Bowl, but for the wild-card playoff games, there are still dozens of choices. Which team or player will score the first touchdown? Will one starting quarterback go over or under a certain number of passing yards? Which team will be winning after the first quarter? There are many options as far as team and individual player props are concerned.
^Remember to bet responsibly
Before you start betting, figure out how much money you can afford to lose without impacting any of your other financial responsibilities. No matter how wild-card weekend (or any other betting event) goes, stick to that budget.
Don’t chase losses. This happens when bettors lose early and then ramp up the betting amounts so they can make their money back. When we do this, we virtually guarantee that our bankroll will disappear. If betting starts to frustrate you, walk away from it for a while. This will keep you from making impulsive decisions. Quite a few online sportsbooks allow you to use tools like deposit limits and self-exclusion options that can help you limit the losses when things go badly.
^NFL Wild Card Round Betting Advice provided by Xbet
How should you bet each game this weekend?
We’ve published several other articles that go more into the ins and outs of each of the six wild-card games this weekend than this summary, so check those out as well before you lock in your wagers. Here is an overview of our takes on the games that start Saturday.
NFL Wild Card Round Betting Advice: Saturday, January 11
L.A. Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans (O/U 42)
Moneylines: Los Angeles -160 / Houston +130
Yes, the Texans are hosting another wild-card playoff game as the AFC South champs. They won that division six times in the 2010s before entering a real drought, but they’ve come back to win the last two titles under head coach DeMeco Ryans. Last year, they welcomed the Cleveland Browns to town for a wild-card game and delivered an absolute thumping. This time around, though, things don’t look that great for the Texans.
They started the season with three elite receivers – Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. The only one of those who is healthy now is Collins, and he’s not been looking 100% since his return. Tight end Dalton Schultz hasn’t produced as well this year, either, so teams basically lock down Collins and dare the Texans to beat them on the ground. The Houston defense hasn’t been particularly consistent, especially in the last two-thirds of the season, as injuries have plagued that side of the ball as well.
The Chargers haven’t been a particularly consistent team this year, either, but they were sitting at 8-6 after Week 15 before finishing the season on a three-game winning streak. Their +101 point differential is actually 42 points higher than that of the 15-2 AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs. When the Chargers are playing well, Justin Herbert has time to pass in the pocket, and the running game is moving the chains. The offense has been dominant at times – and it’s disappeared at times. Their 11-6 record includes two wins over the Denver Broncos, also a playoff team, and Jim Harbaugh’s system seems to have the Chargers clicking. So they’re road favorites for a reason – and they’re the smart pick to win.
^Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) at Baltimore Ravens (O/U 43.5)
Moneylines: Pittsburgh +380 / Baltimore -526
It’s true that the Steelers have a 3-1 all-time record in the playoffs against the Baltimore Ravens. Is this still karma aimed at former owner Art Modell, who took one of the great OG NFL teams – the Cleveland Browns – out of town? It’s certainly possible. But Modell hasn’t owned the team since 2004, and the Ravens have the best winning percentage in the regular season of any active franchise (.574). Since 2000, they’ve made the playoffs 16 times and won the Super Bowl twice, which has to irritate old-school Browns fans who dealt with decades of frustration. So if there’s karma, it’s probably not going on here.
What we do see is a Ravens team that is firing on all cylinders on offense and doing enough on defense to get wins – and build a big point differential (+157). We also see a Steelers team on a four-game skid, showing a lack of hunger on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Russell Wilson looked solid after taking over for Justin Fields earlier this season, but he’s not been producing as much in the last month. The Steelers are ready to fall off the table, while the Ravens look poised for a deep run. We like the Ravens to win and cover.
^NFL Wild Card Round Betting Advice: Sunday, January 12
Denver Broncos (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 47.5)
Moneylines: Denver +360 / Buffalo -490
This is a big point spread for a playoff matchup. The Broncos have a terrific defense that should be able to slow the Bills down, and Buffalo has shown a penchant for making major mistakes in playoff situations. I think the Bills are another team that can make a deep playoff run, but this game against the Broncos is going to be a war. Denver comes in basically with nothing to lose, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has only increased in his confidence as the season has worn on. He now has the rookie record for most games with 200+ passing yards, two or more passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 29:12 TD:INT ratio for his rookie season is one that many veterans would love to have.
Buffalo has a juggernaut of an offense and has figured out how to minimize turnovers this season. Will these trends hold in the playoffs? Bills fans hope so, but the Bills will get all they can handle from Denver. We like the Broncos to cover here.
^Green Bay Packers (+5) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 45.5)
Moneylines: Green Bay +193 / Philadelphia -244
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to practice yesterday after clearing the concussion protocol. Will he still have some rust to shake off on Sunday? It’s possible. The Eagles do have an underrated defense, which helped them win the NFC East – but it did not help them much in the fourth quarter of their loss to Washington. Jordan Love is a similar quarterback to Jayden Daniels in that he is a mobile gunslinger who tends to heat up in the fourth quarter. The Packers would love to avenge their Week 1 loss to Philadelphia down in Brazil, but the inconsistencies the Packers have shown on offense could be a problem. Even so, I see this game coming down potentially to the last drive, so I’m taking the Packers to cover.
^Washington Commanders (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 50)
Moneylines: Washington +137 / Tampa Bay -169
This is a fairly high point total for a game between two teams that can score in bunches. They both have highly competitive quarterbacks who can also be mercurial in their personalities, which can lead to iffy decisions. Washington has gained more confidence with each passing week, particularly in the last two-thirds of the season. However, they also should have lost to the Chicago Bears and turned to very winnable games against Dallas into a ridiculous loss and a nail-biter. Tampa Bay also failed to show up against Dallas, but the Buccaneers have the better tailback situation with Bucky Irving, and their defense is slightly more reliable. I like Tampa Bay to win and cover here.
^NFL Wild Card Round Betting Advice: Monday, January 13
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at LA Rams (O/U 48)
Moneylines: Minnesota -146 / Los Angeles +119
Remember what we said earlier about coaching matchups? I like Sam Darnold to bounce back after a very difficult game in Detroit last week. However, I also like Sean McVay to use his familiarity with Kevin McConnell’s tendencies (McConnell was McVay’s OC when the Rams won the Super Bowl) to his advantage. I like the Rams to win outright here.
^These QBs have something to prove in the postseason 😤 pic.twitter.com/yZhXWhLZuI
— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2025
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