When the Dallas Cowboys beat Tennessee on the road in Week 17, that gave them a dozen wins on the season, making coach Mike McCarthy the first coach in Cowboys history to have back-to-back seasons with at least 11 wins since Barry Switzer did it. Tom Landry and Jimmy Johnson also pulled off the feat. What do Landry, Johnson and Switzer have in common? They all guided the Cowboys to Super Bowl victories. If McCarthy can add that feat to his list, he would end a drought that extends back to 1996. The Cowboys start their postseason journey this year in Tampa Bay, against a quarterback (Tom Brady) whom they have never beaten, in seven tries (including a 19-3 loss in Week 1 of this year) and in a situation in which they have not won since 1992 (a road playoff victory). Read on to gauge our thoughts about the best NFL Playoffs betting strategy to use with Dallas this year.
NFL News: Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis
→ History has significance…until it doesn’t
The Cincinnati Bengals had never won a road playoff game in franchise history until they did it last year, and they followed that up with a march to the Super Bowl, where they fell just short against the Los Angeles Rams. A history of mediocrity can weigh heavily on players, especially in a market that has as much entitlement as Dallas. The Cowboys play down to the opposition more often than not, as we saw in losses to Jacksonville, Green Bay and especially Washington in Week 18. The blowout win over Indianapolis overshadowed the fact that the Colts outplayed Dallas for much of the first three quarters before Dallas unloaded for 33 points in the fourth quarter. At some point, the Cowboys may wake up and realize that they actually have the talent to win and just need the focus to go along with it. Will that happen this Monday?
→ The defensive numbers are solid for the Cowboys
Dallas has benefited from a weak NFC East for much of the last decade, but this division was actually elite this year, the most competitive in the league. For much of the season, it looked like all three wild cards would go to East teams, although Washington’s late collapse ended up handing the seventh seed to the Seattle Seahawks. The Dallas defense permits 19.2 points per game (seventh best) and ranks fourth in expected points added per game (3.56). The 49 sacks that Dallas has registered are second only to Philadelphia, and no team forced more than the 26 turnovers than Dallas this year. They hold opponents to 324.6 yards per game, eighth best in the NFL.
→ The offense has been better than you think
No NFL quarterback has thrown more interceptions than Dak Prescott has (15), and the pick-six against Washington in Week 18 was particularly hideous, as the Cowboys ran the same play before, only to have Kyle Fuller slip and fall instead of picking the ball off. The offense has produced, with almost an exact 50-50 balance between rushing and passing plays. The team scores 28.1 points per game, third in the league, although that includes totals of 54 (against Indianapolis) but also 6 (against Washington) and 3 (against Tampa Bay). When the Cowboys get in the red zone, they have scored touchdowns 71.7% of the time, second only to Philadelphia (73.5%).
→ Key injuries could play a role
Leighton Vander Esch (neck) has not returned yet this season, and his role anchoring the defense from the linebacker position cannot be overestimated. Cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown have gone down for the season, along with defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins. On the offensive side of the ball, right tackle Terence Steele (knee) is done for the season as well.
→ With all that said…
Everyone has injuries at this point of the season, and everyone has weaknesses. The 49ers are playing a third-string quarterback. Seattle has a hard time running the ball and stopping the passing game. Tampa Bay, the Cowboys’ first opponent, has a really hard time scoring during the first three quarters of the game. The NFC is definitely ripe for the picking, so it will just come down to how much the Cowboys want to do the work of winning.
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