You might not think that there is much parity in the National Football League, since the New England Patriots seem to turn up at the top of the AFC each year, if not the entire league. However, with the exception of the Patriots, there is a lot of turnover among the contenders, year in and year out. Consider examples such as the Philadelphia Eagles, who seemingly came out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl after the 2017 season and then upset the Chicago Bears (another surprising contender) in the playoffs last year. The Green Bay Packers are a team that has seen both feast and famine in just the past few seasons. Which teams from 2018 are probably going to be undervalued from a NFL betting perspective in 2019? We have some thoughts to help you make some money in the first few weeks of the season.
Worst Teams That Could Be Smart 2019 NFL Betting Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a team that went to the AFC Championship two seasons ago and led the New England Patriots on the road, going into the fourth quarter, before the defense folded and the pressure finally got to Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles. Then, things fell apart in 2018, and Bortles returned to his former self. The quarterbacks in Jacksonville last year earned a combined 60.9 passing grade, using Pro Football Focus’ 100-point scale, the seventh worst rating in the entire league.
Now the Jaguars bring in Nick Foles from Philadelphia — the Super Bowl MVP from two years ago despite his status as Carson Wentz’s backup. He did not play as well in his opportunities in 2018, but he has shown an ability to avoid harmful plays to the team. In 2017 and 2018, just over two percent of his dropbacks led to turnovers, the eighth-best ratio in the league. He was only sacked 22 times in 176 dropbacks in which he faced pressure. That is a 12.5 percent sack conversion rate; Blake Bortles (18.3 percent) and Cody Kessler (40.3 percent) did much worse playing quarterback for the Jaguars last year.
Foles is not the sort of gunslinger who will deliver wins on his own, like Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo, but he will not cost his team the game by himself, as the likes of Bortles has. The defense from two years ago is still largely intact, and the team drafted outside linebacker Josh Allen with the seventh selection this season. For these reasons, the Jaguars will contend in the AFC South, pushing Houston and Indianapolis for the title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bruce Arians brings his coaching resume to Tampa Bay. Arians posted a 49-30-1 record in Arizona, and the best quarterback he had during that run was Carson Palmer. He had to start Ryan Lindley for two games, Blaine Gabbert for five and Drew Stanton for 13. He has a quarterback who might be better than all four of those in Jameis Winston, who looks like a solid fit for Arians’ use of an offense that blends running with passing down the field. Palmer averaged a target of 11.9 yards down the field in 2015, his best season, and that number was tops in the league.
Arians liked Palmer to throw deep over the middle, and that is a part of the field that Winston likes to target as well. Winston only started nine games last year and has to be looking for some redemption this season. He has two quality receivers this year in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — both of whom are willing to go across the middle. This is Winston’s fifth season in the NFL, so it’s time for him to make the case for a contract that will set him up for life. That should motivate him — along with Arians’ coaching — to make the Buccaneers a contender in 2019.
