When the 2019-20 National Hockey League season was suspended because of the spread of the coronavirus, the Columbus Jackets were clinging to the second wild card position in the Eastern Conference, with 12 games left on their regular season slate. With a 33-22-15 record, the team had 81 points, which had them tied with the Carolina Hurricanes, but Carolina held the tiebreaker because the Hurricanes had more wins (38-33). If these results are used for a hypothetical postseason, the Blue Jackets would be the only Eastern Conference playoff team with a negative goal differential (-7). If play resumes, Columbus has the New York Islanders just one point them and the New York Rangers just two points back, with the Florida Panthers three points back. So if we have a continuation of the regular season, there will be a flurry for that last wild card. If the postseason began on the basis of the current standings, Columbus would start their playoffs in Boston, taking on the Bruins. That’s just fine with the Blue Jackets, who went in with the second wild card last year and swept the Tampa Bay Lightning right out of the playoffs in the first round. If you’re considering NHL futures in your sports betting, or planning for a playoff, check out our thoughts on the Blue Jackets.
NHL: Columbus Blue Jackets 2019-20 Season Analysis
This wasn’t supposed to be a year when Columbus would contend. They swept Tampa Bay in the first round last year, put a bit of a scare into Boston into the second round, and then left the playoffs. Two of their biggest talents, Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, left via free agency, and most experts thought the team would regress significantly. But they didn’t — so let’s look at why they are still sniffing out a postseason spot.
Offensive Analysis
Columbus outshoots their opposition by an average of 2.6 shots per game, the sixth highest margin in the NHL. Shooting more doesn’t always mean that you will win; after all, a lot of teams start launching the shots in desperation because they are behind. But if you are shooting more than your competition, over the course of the season you should be rewarded with goals. The Blue Jackets still have that -7 goal differential, but they are launching shots.
Defensive Analysis
Offense is not the key for Columbus; even last year, their bread and butter was their defense. This year, their goalie play has not dropped off at all, because Joonas Korpisalo and Elivs Merzlikins have stepped in nicely. Korpisalo was supposed to take over the starting job from Bobrovsky, and he was decent enough to keep the Blue Jackets close enough for postseason contention.
However, when he went down to injury in December against Chicago, Merzlikins became the starter. He has posted a 13-9-8 record with a .923 save percentage and a 2.35 goals against average. In 31 games that he started, he has five shutouts. If you expand his numbers to include all of his appearances (including when he has relieved Korpisalo), his record is 19-12-5 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.60 GAA.
Key Numbers & Key Players
A key number for Columbus has to do with blocked shots. In Merzlikins’ first two starts in relief of the injured Korpisalo, the Blue Jackets blocked a combined 39 shots to 12 for the opponents — and the team won both games. For the season, the team has blocked 1,060 shots, fifth best in the NHL. That has played a role in their penalty kill, which ranks 12th at 81.7 percent. One more number that has a lot to do with team discipline is their penalty minutes. They have only 458, second fewest overall. On a defense-first team, your big players are going to bring physicality and size to the job — along with grit. Zach Werenski, Pierre Luc Dubois, Nick Foligno, Boone Jenner and David Savard all fit the bill.
Playoffs panorama and Championship Odds
Right now, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a +3500 moneyline to win the Stanley Cup this year. They would have to get through Boston in the first round, which will be tough enough. However, the Stanley Cup playoffs are notorious when it comes to high seeds losing to underdogs, and if there is a team with the mental strength to make a long run in the postseason against rosters that look a lot better on paper, it’s these Blue Jackets.
