When Matthew Tkachuk was traded across the continent from the Calgary Flames to the Florida Panthers last July, he was trading teams, conferences and ways of life. It’s hard to imagine two places much more different than Western Canada and South Beach. Tkachuk thought that the Panthers, who have rolled into the playoffs with regularity in recent years, would do so again, but now he is in a fight as the Panthers are one point out of the last wild-card slot in the Eastern Conference with six games remaining. Tkachuk came east as part of a deal that sent Jonathan Huberdeau (who had scored 30 goals and 115 points in 2021-22) to Calgary, so there is pressure on his shoulders. Can he help the Panthers get to the postseason again? As you look ahead to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, don’t miss our top NHL betting tips.
NHL News: Playoff Betting Tips
It’s important to remember that the betting public will usually overreact on the basis of the most recent results, which means that they will bet on teams on winning streaks over teams with losing streaks, even when the talent on the two roosters suggests otherwise. Let’s break down some betting scenarios on the basis of different games within a series.
Game 2
In an NHL playoff series, Games 1 and 2 take place on the home ice of the higher seed. No matter who wins Game 1, you should consider taking the visiting team (the road underdog) in Game 2. When the underdog also won Game 1, your return on investment (ROI) will be higher, but in either case, you lose less money over time by taking the road underdog, and the value that you get when your pick wins will help drive your profitability. Remember, people tend to overreact to the most recent results.
Game 3
In this situation, take a look at series that are tied 1-1. In this instance, the series is moving to the home rink of the lower-seeded team. It makes the most sense to pick the higher seed, or the visiting team, in Game 3. This tends to pay off more over time, although the reasons are hard to decipher. It could be that the higher seed plays with more effort and desperation to avoid going down 2-1 facing a Game 4 on the road. Interestingly enough, the higher seed does better historically in Game 3 when the series is tied 1-1 than it does when they lead 2-0 or when they trail 0-2. This could be explained by desperation on the part of the lower seed in Game 3, not wanting to fall into a 3-0 hole in the series, and by a lack of confidence on the part of the higher seed after losing the first two games on their home ice.
Game 4
If either team leads the series, 3-0, then the most profitable choice comes from taking the team that is down three games. With their backs against the wall, these teams will scrap hard for a win, while the team with the three-goal advantage does not always have the same urgency, realizing that there is some room for error.
Game 5
When the lower seed trails 3-1, the series is moving back to the higher seed’s home ice for Game 5. It might seem counterintuitive, but the lower seed is the more profitable pick. Obviously, the lower seed, going on the road, is facing elimination, while the higher seed has more room for error and can drop games. This is not a situation that happens as often as some of the earlier scenarios, but this is a statistic that you can leverage. The same goes for the higher seed going into Game 5 trailing 3-1; perhaps the encouragement of returning to home ice, and the desperation of avoiding elimination, combine to deliver these results.
Game 6
It still makes sense to take the lower seed here when they are trailing, 3-2. They have already won twice in the series, and now they are coming home with a chance to avoid elimination. Those two factors combine to explain the profits in this scenario.
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