Saturday marks the conclusion of the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League as venerable Wembley Stadium will host the final. Europe’s top club competition has now finished 69 seasons, 32 after changing its name to the UEFA Champions League. Borussia Dortmund stopped Paris Saint-Germain, 2-0, in aggregate in their semifinal tie. On the other side of the bracket, Real Madrid posted a thrilling 4-3 aggregate defeat of Bayern Munich to get to the final. Real looks to make it 15 Champions League titles on Saturday. Slavko Vincic of Slovenia will serve as referee, making his second appearance at a UEFA club competition final. He refereed the 2022 final of the UEFA Europa League between Rangers and Eintracht Frankfurt. Real Madrid comes in as the heavy favorite, but anything can happen on the pitch. Read on to see our Champions League betting prediction for this match.
Champions League betting Final Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Odds, Picks and Totals
When: Saturday, June 1, 2024, 3:00 pm ET
Where: Wembley Stadium, London
TV: CBS
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: fuboTV
Champions Odds: Borussia Dortmund +425 / Draw +310 / Real Madrid -160 / O/U 2.5 (-150/+115)
Why should you bet on Dortmund?
Don’t sleep on Dortmund, even though they have just one Champions League title, and that came all the way back in 1997. They made the final back in 2014 – a final played on this same Wembley Stadium pitch – and they are back to do damage. They beat PSG not once but twice in the semifinal tie. PSG did send a number of balls off the woodwork, but Dortmund took on the pressure and was able to deliver on enough of their own chances to emerge as finalists. Dortmund must find more answers on defense, though. PSG might not have been able to find the back of the net, but they sent 44 shots toward the Dortmund goal and posted a 4.95 expected goals metric.
Dortmund’s back four – Maatsen, Schlotterbeck, Hummels, and Ryerson – have played consistently well all season. Hummels’ experience and savvy have helped the defense anchor what has been a shocking run to the Champions League final. Gregor Kobel, the goalkeeper, has stood on his head at times, making key saves when that defense has allowed shots to get through. Maatsen has terrific speed at left back, and his ability to confound his opponents is also important. His job will be keeping Real’s Rodrygo from doing damage. The midfield duo, Marcel Sabitzer and Emre Can, have shown that they can possess at an elite level. This allows the three forwards ahead of them – Adeyemi, Brandt and Sancho – to swap places, cutting in and out, to set up dangerous plays. Fullkrug is the striker up top, and his ability to apply pressure deep in the opponent’s defensive area will reduce the number of counters that Rea will be able to mount.
Dortmund’s depth is impressive as well. Malen, Moukoko and Reus are all starter-quality players, and they are all options coming off the bench to add fresh legs in the attacking third. When Dortmund do not possess the ball, expect them to contract into a tight 4-5-1 formation, designed to keep Real from finding space in the back of the defense. That formation will also allow them to get going on quick attacks by finding Fullkrug in the early moments and sending Adeyemi and Sancho wide and high along the field. This progression has worked well for Dortmund throughout their Champions League run, and while Real Madrid comes in with all of the experience at this level, Dortmund have nothing to lose to keep their aggressive counter style going.
Why should you put your money on Real Madrid?
Yes, Dortmund is a legitimate finalist, but the knockout stage bracket was far from even. Real came from the half that most of Europe’s toughest teams, while Dortmund came from a half that was not nearly as robust. Dortmund’s route involved a 5-3 aggregate win over Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinals that required a 4-2 win in the home leg to undo the damage of an opening loss in Spain. Then came the pair of wins over a PSG team that turned a 3-2 deficit after the home leg against Barcelona around, demolishing Barca just six days later with a 4-1 demolition at the Bernabeu. On the other side, Real Madrid had to dispatch Manchester City, the Premier League champion. It’s true that this win came on penalties after aggregate play ended in a 4-4 draw. After that, Real had to survive Bayern Munich, one of the Bundesliga’s elite programs. Will this tougher road to the final benefit Real – or will the combined fatigue take a toll?
Andriy Lunin has manned the net for Real as they have advanced in the Champions League bracket. However, a bout with the flu has Lunin out, which opens the door for the team’s usual starter. Thibaut Courtois is healthy and clear to play. He has considerably more experience on huge stages such as this one, so this change is not a disappointment. The back four – Mendy, Nacho, Rudiger, and Carvajal – have shown stolid defense. They stopped Erling Haaland in their win over Manchester City, and Nacho and Rudiger will now face the challenge of stopping Fullkrug. The primary concern for Real is midfield. The likely starters are Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, and Toni Kroos. Aurelien Tchouameni is on the shelf, so it will be up to those starters to slow down the Dortmund offense ahead of that back four.
Jude Bellingham will get the start in attacking midfield; expect him to move up to the left as his runs ahead should open up room for Vinicius and Rodrygo to cause chaos. Luka Modric might start the game on the bench despite his considerable experience in big games. Expect the 4-3-1-2 formation to switch into a 4-1-5 with Bellingham, Camavinga and Valverde all pushing forward on the counter. That’s the change that Real have used to cause damage this entire season, and if they can build counters against Dortmund, this transition could put multiple balls in the back of the Dortmund net.
If Real Madrid lose in regulation, they would become the heaviest betting favorite ever to fall in a Champions League Final. Bayern Munich holds the current record after having lost to Chelsea in 2012 despite entering as -143 favorites on the moneyline at kickoff.
Champions League betting Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Final Score and Prediction
Four consecutive UEFA Champions League finals have ended with 1-0 scorelines. We haven’t seen a final feature at least three goals since 2018, when Gareth Bale came off the bench to post a brace and lead Real to a 3-1 win over Liverpool. Real has done plenty of scoring, though, and their midfield issues will allow Dortmund to do damage as well. I predict a final score of Real 3, Dortmund 1.
Champions League betting Other Props to Consider
Real Madrid OVER 16 total shots +105
Dortmund have permitted almost 16 shots per 90 minutes through Champions League play this season and approximately 2.0 expected goals. Real have averaged 16.8 shots per match through Champions League play, and all of their attackers are healthy and set to start. Real will have chances at the Dortmund net, so we will see how they take advantage.
Champions League betting Real Madrid to win AND Vinicius Jr to score first +450
Want a parlay? Vinicius Jr has a Champions League final goal on his resume already. He’s the biggest contributor to the attack right now. He has started a trend of scoring early, with the first goal in five different matches dating back to a La Liga contest against Girona in February. He also scored the first goal of the match in the Champions League twice this season, once against RB Leipzig and once against Bayern Munich. When Vinicius Jr scores this season, Real does not lose. He has goals in 16 matches across all competitions this season, and Real have won 14 of those matches, with two draws. If he scores, Real will walk away with this trophy.
🗣️ Vinícius Júnior, Hummels & Füllkrug…
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