Matchday 5 of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League produced plenty of drama, even as some of the sport’s blue bloods that had started slowly in the league phase began to figure things out. There were some surprises, of course.
Crvena Zvezda, a team that had lost four straight to begin the league phase, stomped Stuttgart, 5-1.
Stuttgart are also in the bottom echelon of the table, and neither team is likely to get even to the playoff for the knockout, but seeing the Serbian side turn a one-goal deficit after just five minutes of play into a 5-1 laughter was something.
Club Brugge had a forgettable Matchday 5 as Cameron Carter-Vickers sent a back pass toward his own goal, only to find that the goalkeeper wasn’t back there.
That gave Celtic the only scoring they would need to get a point out of that 1-1 draw. Both of those teams are still in the qualification zone – and doing better than titan Real Madrid, who lost to Liverpool, 2-0.
The Reds are the only team with five wins in five matches. Monaco finally lost a Champions League game, watching a 2-1 lead over Benfica turn into a 3-2 loss.
It might be that this tiny nation’s club is about to hear the clock strike midnight on their Cinderella campaign.
We have the latest standings and some thoughts about the likely final matchup as you consider your online betting strategy for the next phases of this year’s Champions League.
Soccer Odds & Betting Analysis: UEFA Champions League Final Projections
| Rank | Team | Points | Goal Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 15 | 11 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 13 | 7 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 10 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 10 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 10 | 6 |
| 8 | Monaco | 10 | 5 |
| (slots 1-8 automatically qualify for the knockout round) | |||
| 9 | Aston Villa | 10 | 5 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 10 | 3 |
| 11 | Brest | 10 | 3 |
| 12 | Lille | 10 | 2 |
| 13 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 5 |
| 14 | Benfica | 9 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 2 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 9 | 2 |
| (slots 9-16 are seeded in the playoff for the knockout round) | |||
| 17 | Manchester City | 8 | 6 |
| 18 | PSV | 8 3 | |
| 19 | Juventus | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | Celtic | 8 | 0 |
| 21 | Feyenoord | 7 | 3 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 7 | 3 |
| 23 | GNK Dinamo | 7 | 5 |
| 24 | Real Madrid | 6 | 0 |
| (slots 17-24 are unseeded in the playoff for the knockout round) | |||
| 25 | Paris-St Germain | 4 | 3 |
| 26 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 4 |
| 27 | Stuttgart | 4 | 7 |
| 28 | Sparta Prague | 4 | 9 |
| 29 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 4 |
| 30 | Girona | 3 | 5 |
| 31 | Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 8 |
| 32 | RB Salzburg | 3 | 12 |
| 33 | Bologna | 1 | 6 |
| 34 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 6 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 14 |
| 36 | Young Boys | 0 | 15 |
| (slots 25-36 are eliminated from continental soccer tournaments until 2025-26) | |||
Champions League Final Projections: Liverpool
Obviously, there’s a lot of soccer to be played between now and the UCL final, but Liverpool are a smart pick. They are perfect in Champions League play, including a 4-0 demolition of Bayer Leverkusen and, most recently, a 2-0 beating of Real Madrid. Los Blancos are the defending champs but are mired in 24th in the table right now, but Liverpool is making everyone look ordinary. They have 17 wins in their last 19 matches across all ccompetitions, and also sit atop the English Premier League table. Given the fact that they are almost guaranteed to finish in the top eight and avoid the knockout round playoffs, they will have a chance to rest their most important players during the winter.
^Champions League Final Projections: Barcelona
They are not far off Liverpool, just three points back and with an even greater goal differential. They are a scary team now that Robert Lewandowski has figured out how to find the back of the net again. Raphinha and Lamine Yamal have opened things up for him along the front line, and in his side’s 3-0 win over Brest on Tuesday, he became just the third 100+ goalscorer in UCL history. He has 22 goals in 19 games across all competitions this season, a solid number for anyone, particularly a player who is 36. They lost to Monaco in Matchday 1 with only 10 men but have won four straight since. With just one more win in their last eight matches (they play Borussia Dortmund, Benfica and Atalanta), they will nail down a top-eight position.
^Champions League Final Projections: Inter Milan
Inter reached the final in 2023 and could easily get back there again this year. They have four wins and a draw in five matchdays so far – and they have yet to permit a goal, even though two of their opponents have been Arsenal and Manchester City. Offense is a bit of an issue as they only have seven goals in those five matches, thanks in large part to Lautaro Martinez’s regression. However, he and his colleagues up front have time to figure things out. Their next UCL fixture is at Bayer Leverkusen, but even if that doesn’t go well, they can still nab a top-eight spot when they take on foundering Sparta in Prague for Matchday 7.
^Champions League Final Projections: Arsenal
While captain Martin Odegaard was on the shelf, Arsenal struggled to find creativity on offense. However, the Norwegian playmaker is back, and the team has improved as a result. The Gunners went to Lisbon and undressed Sporting CP, 5-1, answering twhetherthis team can win on the road against quality competition in UCL play. With upcoming home dates coming against Monaco and Dinamo Zagreb, snagging a top-eight spot should be more than reasonable.
^Champions League Final Projections: Atalanta
If you’re wondering where Atalanta figured out how to play soccer at such a high level, it’s nothing new to their fans. Under Gian Piero Gasperini’s leadership, this group rolled to a Europa League title last year, and after taking 11 points in five games, this team looks like it could snag a top-eight slot and avoid the qualification playoff altogether. If they’d managed to beat Celtic at home – their only real misstep so far in the league stage – that top-eight spot would be much closer to being in the bag. They went to Bern and rocked Young Boys, 6-1, with braces from Charles De Ketelaere and Mateo Retegui. Atalanta are also surprising people in Serie A, and they are ready to take on a struggling Real Madrid on Matchday 6. A win there makes that top-eight slot a lot more conceivable.
^Champions League Final Projections: Borussia Dortmund
It’s true that Dortmund are one of the few sides that haven’t solved Real Madrid in this league stage, but they have won their four other matches, including a victory over Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday. So with Barcelona, Bologna and Shakhtar Donetsk left on the schedule, they are one win away from grabbing a top-eight slot. Thanks to the hot play of Jamie Gittens, this is another team that should lock things up in the league stage.
^Champions League Final Projections: Bayern Munich
Bayern has some work to do to ensure that they don’t end up reading about the knockout rounds in the newspaper instead of playing themselves, but they have turned things around in their last two matches. They started the league stage with a 9-2 hide-tanning of Dinamo Zagreb, but then they lost to Aston Villa and Barcelona in matches that showed holes in the Bundesliga side’s back line. They’ve tightened up the defense, perhaps at the expense of some aggressiveness on offense, but the result has been a pair of 1–0 victories over Benfica and PSG. With a couple more wins against a field that includes Shakhtar Donetsk, Feyenoord and Slovan Bratislava, Bayern Munich will roll through to the qualification round and might even snag a top-eight slot if the teams above them falter.
^Champions League Final Projections: Real Madrid
And what about Madrid? They have just six points out of five matches. They face Atalanta, Salzburg and Brest to round out the league stage. Furthermore, they need nine points to sniff a top-eight slot, but at this point, they really just need to be happy with whatever points some aggressive play can bring them. They are the defending champions, but they don’t look like it yet.
Right now, I see Liverpool occupying one bench in the final. While I respect the hot play of Inter Milan and Atalanta, and see those teams possibly taking on the Reds, my money would be on Barcelona to get through and see the Reds at Allianz Arena in Munich on May 31.
^De Ketelaere with the hat-trick of assists 🎩
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 30, 2024
Stat leaders from matchday 5 👇@FedExEurope | #FedExPerformanceZone pic.twitter.com/z8YgHppPZ0
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