As the league phase of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League reaches Matchday 3, we see several of the top teams on the European continent looking for redemption.
There are seven teams that have notched six points out of two matches – but none of those teams are Arsenal, Bayern Munich, PSG, Barcelona or Real Madrid.
There are still six matches remaining in the league phase, so there is time to gain ground, and this week’s set of matches includes a showdown between Barcelona and Bayern and another between RB Leipzig and Liverpool.
Let’s check out the schedule as well as some storylines and predictions that may influence your sports betting.
Soccer Odds & Betting Analysis: UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Preview
Barcelona +133 vs Bayern Munich +163
When: Wednesday, October 23, 3:00 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +280
After shifting to manager Hansi Flick, Barcelona seem to have found their footing. They are still in first place in La Liga and have a 19-9 scoring advantage on the opposition over their last nine games. This could mean that the back line is a bit fragile, but the attack has gotten them out of difficulty when it has had to. Bayern is more difficult, of course, than some of the lower-level La Liga teams that Barcelona will face. Even so, Barcelona have Gavi back from his torn ACL as well as Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo back from some more minor injuries.
Bayern lead the Bundesliga and have stacked up some routs along the way. Vincent Kompany’s management style drew some early questions, but positivity has largely been the tone. However, that draw against Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga play and the loss at Aston Villa in UCL Matchday 2 were not what the fan base expected. Barcelona are not as challenging as Aston Villa, who had the backline to deal with Bayern’s challenges and still keep them from putting the ball in the net. With Harry Kane on the field, Bayern will have some solid looks in goal. Jamal Musiala (hip) is still questionable for the visitors.
Champions Pick: Barcelona to win.
^Robert Lewandowski is now the third all-time top scorer in Europe's top five leagues!
— FIFA World Cup Stats (@alimo_philip) October 21, 2024
The only players who've scored more;
Lionel Messi
Cristiano Ronaldo#Messi|#UCL|#ChampionsLeague pic.twitter.com/OiEP0Zsw1s
Paris Saint-Germain -330 vs PSV Eindhoven +670
When: Tuesday, October 22, 3:00 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +480
Paris Saint-Germain got blanked, 2-0, by Arsenal on Matchday 2. The possession and shot numbers favored the French side, but they could not turn those advantages into dangerous chances. On the back end, PSG had several lapses that the Gunners were able to turn into their own offense. Even without Kylian Mbappe on the field, PSG have plenty of talent thanks to Luis Enrique’s rebuild. PSV Eindhoven are still winless after two UCL games, and they are vulnerable heading to the City of Lights.
Champions Pick: PSG to win.
^Real Madrid -212 vs Borussia Dortmund +450
When: Tuesday, October 22, 3:00 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +380
Real Madrid also dominated many of the statistics on Matchday 2, putting six of their 12 shots on target and coming up with 2.16 expected goals, but expected goals and actual goals aren’t the same thing, so they found themselves on the wrong end of the decision against Lille. This is Real Madrid’s only loss so far this season, as they are right there in the La Liga title chase, and over their last 10 games, they have outscored their opponents, 21-7. This is the defending Champions League winner, but their lack of balance, slight as it might be, caught them against Lille. They saw Borussia Dortmund in the last UCL final, back in June. Dortmund have six points in two matches in UCL play, which makes for an intriguing matchup in Madrid. In Bundesliga play, they have 13 points out of seven matches (4W 1D 2L), four points back of Bayern and RB Leipzig. Is this line a bit unbalanced? I’m taking some value out of this match.
What about the scoring? Real Madrid’s last UCL showing was that sad 1-0 setback against Lille. In four of 11 matches to start 2024-25, Los Blancos have either scored once or been held to a clean sheet. Kylian Mbappe has six goals and an assist in his first 10 appearances with the side. With this game at home, Real Madrid will try to turn midfield control into runs ahead for Jude Bellingham and Federico Valverde. Borussia Dortmund have only been held to one or zero goals twice in nine matches. Karim Adeyemi is on the shelf, so Serhou Guirassy will run the attack. He has three UCL Goals in two appearances this season after netting 28 for Stuttgart last season before joining Dortmund. Between possession and the counter, both of these sides can bury plenty of balls into the net.
Champions Pick: Take the draw, consider the over.
^The 2024 #UCL finalists meet again pic.twitter.com/Mgg99OPztg
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) October 22, 2024
AC Milan -285 vs Club Brugge +610
When: Tuesday, October 22, 12:45 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +430
Christian Pulisic has six goals and three assists across all competitions so far in 2024-25. They haven’t picked up any points so far in UCL play, though. Their defense has been a problem, as they have permitted seven goals in eight Serie A matches and four goals in two UCL matches. They’ve scored 10 goals, giving them a net negative goal differential. Club Brugge are definitely a tier below, and the U.S. men’s national team released Pulisic before the side’s friendly with Mexico to help his side get things a bit more in order, but shoddy defense is not something that Club Brugge will turn down as a charitable gift.
Champions Pick: Take the draw.
^RB Leipzig +285 vs Liverpool -124
When: Wednesday, October 23, 3:00 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +290
In Bundesliga play, RB Leipzig sit level with Bayern Munich, unbeaten and holding 17 points after seven matches. They have permitted just two goals in those seven matches, the fewest goals permitted by any Bundesliga team to this point. However, that defense has apparently failed to get on the bus for UCL play so far as they led Atletico Madrid, 1-0, before losing, 2-1. They also led Juventus, 2-1, and had a man advantage, but still lost, 3-2. Liverpool have seven wins and a loss in English Premier League play so far, leading Manchester City by a single point atop that table. Liverpool’s lone EPL setback came back on September 14 against Nottingham Forest; since then, they have rounded back into form, including a 2-1 win over Chelsea on Sunday. They’re not exactly pouring on the offense, but they are playing efficient ball. But is it enough?
If you’re feeling like a parlay, you could take the draw as well as the under. Yes, Leipzig have given up some leads, but their defensive record has been solid. Xavi Simons has sent Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko forward on the attack thanks to the team’s backline. Defender David Raum (ankle) will not play, but there is enough depth for the side to manage. Liverpool face a quick turnaround, so there should be some rotations in the lineup as well as a conservative approach. With both teams playing things close to the vest.
Champions Pick: Take the draw and the under.
^UEFA Champions League Schedule for Matchday 3
Tuesday, October 22
(all matches at 3:00 pm ET unless otherwise indicated)
- Monaco vs Crvena Zvezda (12:45 pm ET)
- Arsenal vs Shakhtar Donetsk
- Sturm Graz vs Sporting Lisbon
- Juventus vs Stuttgart
- Girona vs Slovan Bratislava
Wednesday, October 23
(all matches at 3:00 pm ET unless otherwise indicated)
- Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen (12:45 pm ET)
- Atalanta vs Celtic (12:45 pm ET)
- Benfica vs Feyenoord
- Salzburg vs Dinamo Zagreb
- Manchester City vs Sparta Praha
- Young Boys vs Inter Milan
- Atletico Madrid vs Lille
Top 10 to Win the UEFA Champions League
- Manchester City +275
- Real Madrid +330
- Arsenal +800
- Bayern +900
- Liverpool +990
- Barcelona +1200
- Leverkusen +1600
- Inter +2000
- Dortmund +2500
- PSG +2800
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