The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League group stage contains 36 teams but will operate as a league format, with each team tasked with eight matches, four at home and four away.
The teams will be ranked as a group, and the top eight teams at the end of this group stage get a bye to the round of 16.
Teams who finish between 9th and 24th will go into knockout phase playoffs, and teams who finish between 25th and 36th will be eliminated from the competition.
Soccer Odds & Betting Analysis: UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Preview and Dark Horses to Advance
The most surprising group in the bottom third right now is AC Milan, with just three points out of three matchdays and a -1 goal differential.
They did beat Club Brugge in Matchday 3 but still have some work to do just to ensure a spot in the playoffs.
Bayern Munich also have just three points out of three matches, but have a +3 goal differential and are in 23rd after three matchdays.
After three matchdays, FC Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, and Juventus are all in 10th to 14th place with 6 points, requiring a playoff to advance to the last 16.
Top #UCLfantasy performers so far! 🔍📈
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 5, 2024
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Let’s look at some primo sports betting picks for Matchday 4 as well as some teams that are shocking soccer right now with their solid performance to this point.
Celtic +161 vs RB Leipzig +148
When: Tuesday, November 5, 3:00 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +255
RB Leipzig is at risk of UCL elimination with three consecutive one-goal losses. Benjamin Sesko scored all three goals on just 10 shots, losing to Atlético Madrid (2-1), Juventus (3-2), and Liverpool (1-0) despite putting up a fight.
His teammates have launched a combined 34 shots without any of them getting past opposing netminders. In Bundesliga play, RB Leipzig has had an unbeaten beginning – at least until Saturday, when Sesko scored to give them an early 1-0 lead, but then their hosts, Borussia Dortmund, came back to win by – you guessed it – one goal (201). That ended an 19-match unbeaten Bundesliga streak.
Celtic took a 7-1 trouncing at Borussia Dortmund in UCL play, but they recovered to play Atalanta BC, the highest-scoring team in Serie A, to a scoreless draw in their most recent UCL match as Kasper Schmeichel made seven impressive saves. Celtic now have a two-game home winning streak in Champions League play after a 12-match drought in front of their home fans. On Saturday, Celtic demolished Aberdeen, their closest competition in Scotland’s first division, 6-0, to get to the Scottish League Cup final.
Daizen Maeda posted a hat trick in the laugher. Celtic also have nine wins in 10 Premier League matches so far, and their only non-win was a 2-2 home draw against Aberdeen. They have clean sheets in four straight domestic league matches. Celtic have only won once, though, in their last 16 showdowns against Bundesliga foes, but that one win came against RB Leipzig in November 2018. I’m taking the value and the team momentum here.
Champions Pick: Celtic to win.
^Real Madrid -230 vs AC Milan +510
When: Tuesday, November 5, 3:00 pm ET
UCL Pick for Draw +380
“Los Merengues” don’t have much time to bounce back from the spanking they took in El Clasico with AC Milan next on the doorstep. They haven’t played since October 26, when Barcelona delivered an emphatic 4-0 lesson, but flooding in Spain postponed their Saturday match with Valencia, so there may be some rust involved. Real Madrid, have already beaten Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart in the UCL, but their loss at Lille means they are only in 12th themselves.
Visitors face elimination in league stage and need urgency. Haven’t won at Bernabeu since 2009-10. Recent wins over Club Brugge and Monza are positive signs for them.
In domestic play they have 17 points in 10 matches so far, good for seventh in the table, but to stay in the Champions League for 2025-26, they need to elevate play domestically as well.
Champions Pick: Real Madrid to win.
^Dark Horses to Advance in the UEFA Champions League
Monaco (4th place, 7 points)
AS Monaco started strong with a surprise 2-1 win against Barcelona and a 5-1 victory over Crvena Zvezda. Despite a 2-2 draw with Dinamo Zagreb, Monaco may have a chance to advance in the league.
Monaco finished second in Ligue 1 last year, earning their UCL slot in a top-shelf European first division. Next up is a trip to Bologna, a middle-of-the-pack Serie A side. If Monaco can come out with one point – or perhaps even three – then they will start to get more buzz not just as a potential team to advance to the last 16 but perhaps to make a fairly deep run in that bracket.
^Brest (5th place, 7 points)
Brest is another impressive Ligue 1 team, at least as far as UCL play goes so far this season. Unlike Monaco, who are following up last season’s nice finish with a third-place slot in the French first division table, Brest are languishing down in 11th place in the young season. In UCL play, though, they have held serve at home against SK Sturm Graz, gone to Salzburg and delivered a 4-0 shellacking, and managed a respectable 1-1 draw at home against Bundesliga defending champion Bayer Leverkusen.
That home loss to Nice on Saturday in Ligue 1 play, which came in 1-0 fashion, is not an impressive sign of offense to come, and going to Prague for Wednesday’s match will not be easy. The number of points they draw out of that matchup will give us a better indication of how well they can hold their place.
^Sporting CP (8th place, 7 points)
Not only have Sporting CP started out well in UCL play, but they also advanced to the Taca da Liga semifinal with a 3-1 win over Nacional last Tuesday. In Portugal’s first division, they rolled over Estrela Amadora, 5-1, on Friday. Their next UCL match is no laughing matter as English Premier League titans Manchester City roll into town. So far, they have represented themselves well, beating LOSC, 2-0, at home in their opener before going to PSV Eindhoven and coming out with a 1-1 draw. Their third UCL match took them to SK Sturm Graz, where they took care of business with a 2-0 victory.
We’ll know more about the depth of Sporting’s run in this bracket after they host Manchester City – even getting a single point out of that match would be a win, coming against a top EPL power. For now, though, they definitely look like a team that can earn a spot at qualifying for the last 16, even if they slip out of the top eight.
^Matchday 4 is here! 🙌#UCL pic.twitter.com/YdWu8pLcj2
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 4, 2024
Top 10 to Win the UEFA Champions League
- Manchester City +290
- Real Madrid +390
- Arsenal +700
- Barcelona +730
- Liverpool +800
- Bayern +900
- Inter +1975
- Leverkusen +2500
- Aston Villa +3200
- PSG +3300
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