The final for the UEFA Champions League is set for Sunday at 3:00 pm Eastern time, an all-English final set to take place in Porto, Portugal, due to European travel restrictions because of the continued spread of the COVID-19 virus. Manchester City vies for its first Champions League title after establishing itself as one of the dominant clubs in English soccer. Their opponent, Chelsea, has beaten them twice recently, but it is hard to argue that the Blues are the better team. City has just won another English Premier League title, while Chelsea had a tough start and finish to their domestic campaign. I expect the Blues to give the Citizens all that they can handle in this final.
Let’s take a look at the Champions League betting odds along with a closer analysis of the matchup.
Soccer News: UEFA Champions League Final Preview
Chelsea vs Manchester City
Odds: Manchester City 17/20 / Draw 12/5 / Chelsea 7/2
Over/Under (Goals): 2.5
Expect this game to be cautious, with both teams playing a conservative, defense-first style that limits the scoring opportunities. Not only is this a typical approach for a single-game tournament final, but these two teams take this approach frequently. Manchester City permitted fewer goals than any other EPL team this season (32), while Chelsea also kept opponents at bay, permitting just 36 goals. Both sides have excellent back lines and elite goalkeepers.
On the offensive side, Chelsea has also had a difficult time finding the back of the net. Timo Werner scored 10 goals in the EPL campaign, but the fans expected more after the Blues opened up the vault for him last summer. However, it is difficult to score without effective service, and that has just not been there.
Other all-English Champions League finals have also been low-scoring affairs. Liverpool downed Tottenham Hotspur two years ago, 2-0. In 2008, Manchester United and Chelsea played to a 1-1 draw during regulation, and the Red Devils had to go to penalty kicks to send the Blues home.
Obviously, the team that scores first has an advantage, and that has been particularly true for these two teams. Chelsea has a stellar record (17W-1D-1L) in games in which they scored first, across all competitions. Manchester City has scored the first goal in 45 matches across all competitions this year, winning 41 times. In the last 19 Champions League finals, the team that has scored first has won 12 times in regulation, and lost just twice (Atletico Madrid in 2014 and Arsenal in 2006). The other five matches ended in draws and were resolved via penalty kicks.
If you want to add to your value by wagering on a team to score first and win (instead of just winning, you can take Chelsea +380 / Manchester City +106. Given how important the first goal is for both teams, that seems like a no-brainer.
Some other prop bets include whether Timo Werner will run offside for Chelsea. The Blues committed offside 80 times during the 38-game Premier League campaign, and Werner drew 26 of those flags, fourth-highest of any EPL player. This could shape into a match where Chelsea will let Manchester City control things and then look to take advantage in the transition game, and Werner and Christian Pulisic would be the two likeliest players to sprint the other way. Werner was flagged for offside twice in their FA Cup semifinal match against City and three times in their last EPL showdown. You can wager on Timo Werner over 1.5 offside calls (+140) or Chelsea offsides total over 2.5 (including extra time) (+100).
Chelsea beat City, 1-0, in the FA Cup semifinals, and 2-1 in an away EPL match on May 8. City edged Chelsea on penalty kicks after a 0-0 draw at the EFL Cup Final and in the earlier EPL fixture, 3-1. Chelsea has some momentum from their recent success, and all the pressure is on City after they won the EPL title. Because of this, and because of the maximum effort that goes into a final, I’m liking the value of Chelsea to win this.
UEFA Champions League Betting Odds
Love betting on UEFA Champions League soccer games? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date Champions League betting Odds
