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Now that we’re in the middle of March, it’s time for the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League.
On March 20, SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, the U.S. national team will square off to Panama, followed by a showdown between Canada and Mexico.
Canada and the United States zipped by Suriname and Jamaica, respectively, to get to the last four, and Panama ground out a win over Costa Rica, while Mexico dug themselves out of a two-goal hole to send Honduras home.
Mauricio Pochettino, adapting as USMNT manager, faces Panama again in a rematch of his inaugural match. Expectations are high for another victory, as the U.S. defends its title as three-time champions.
Betting CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal Odds, Preview & Schedule
USA (-285) vs Panama (+710) (Draw +390)
When: Thursday, March 20, 7:00 pm ET
Concacaf Nations League Prediction: USA to win
USA
This is a match that the U.S. need to win as they prepare for their co-host role at the 2026 World Cup. They are ranked 16th in the world while Panama are just 36th, but Panama have two wins in the last three matches in this rivalry.
The U.S. did win in Pochettino’s debut back in October, a 2-0 result in Texas. This matchup features Thomas Christiansen against Pochettino, two coaches who met as players in La Liga action.
Pochettino was a center back who ruled the defensive line with Espanyol, while Christiansen was a striker for Oviedo and Villarreal before heading to VfL Bochum, where he was the Bundesliga’s leading scorer in the 2001-2002 campaign.
Christiansen has guided Panama for more than four years now, stacking up 34 wins, 14 draws and 23 losses, while Pochettino is just eight games into his international manager career.
Pressure has already started to grow on the U.S. even as they have won every friendly they’ve seen under their new manager, except for a 2-0 loss to Mexico south of the border.
^Panama
He meets a manager in Christiansen, who guided Panama to the silver medal in the 2023 Gold Cup.
In the 2024 Nations League, Christiansen got Panama to the semifinals, where they took a 3-0 drilling at the hands of Mexico.
However, the last time they played the U.S. competitively, at the Copa America tournament, they took down the U.S., 2-1, in group play, leading to the firing of former U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter.
This is the 29th meeting between the U.S. and Panama – and the 28th since 2004 alone. The U.S. has won 18 and lost three, with seven draws.
^UEFA Nations League Betting provided by Xbet
Canada (+162) vs Mexico (+164) (Draw +224)
When: Thursday, March 20, 10:30 pm ET
Concacaf Nations League Prediction: Mexico to win
Canada
The last time the Canadian team walked away from a tournament with the first-place trophy was in 2000, when they won the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
They’ve been on the rise recently, getting back to a World Cup in 2022 for the first time since 1986, and then they pushed all the way to the semifinals at the 2024 Copa America.
A win over Mexico here would set the Canadians up for what could be a raucous final against the United States. It will be interesting to see who the Canadians put in net. Maxime Crepeau has been the starter for a while and helped Canada to that glorious Copa America run.
However, his MLS season with the Portland Timbers has been difficult, at best.
Dayne St. Clair is making a case to replace Crepeau with his solid work for MLS’ Minnesota United, and right now, he looks like the presumptive #1.
Their defense has solid talent with Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich, Richie Laryea (Toronto FC) and Alistair Johnston (Celtic FC).
Davies will be the left-back and will also wear the captain’s armband.
At center-back, Canada has a wealth of options, led by OGC Nice regular Moise Bombito, who has appeared in 28 games for his Ligue 1 club. Derek Cornelius could be the other center-back, with 18 games for Olympique Marseilles.
^México
While Canada like to take an attacking role, Mexico, managed by Javier Aguirre, have a defense-first philosophy. Their system minimizes risk but also has precision and speed on the counter, where they can create golden opportunities.
Aguirre did raise some eyebrows when he left Guillermo Ochoa off the roster. Ochoa has been the team’s #1 goalie for 20 years, picking up 151 caps along the way.
The Mexican defense will have to slow down Alphonso Davies, who has been playing elite ball for Bayern Munich of the Bundesliga this season, helping their rise back to the top of the table. Jonathan David has scored a goal in every other match for Ligue 1 side Lille.
In the last five matches in this rivalry, Canada has one win, Mexico has two, and the other two have ended in draws. While Canada opened as the slight favorite, money poured in on the other side to switch those odds.
^Betting CONCACAF Nations League Picks to Win
These four teams include the top three teams in CONCACAF (the United States, Canada, and Mexico) as well as a bit of an upstart (Panama). However, that’s generally how CONCACAF has stacked up over the past five years.
Mexico beat the U.S. in their last meeting, but the U.S. did not have Christian Pulisic or Weston McKennie, who had already gone back to their clubs. Chris Richards, Gio Reyna, Timothy Weah, Sergino Dest, and Tyler Adams were all injured.
Even so, the Americans’ failure to launch a shot until the second half (managing just three for the whole game) was disappointing.
The players that the U.S. put out there didn’t arrive with energy or physicality, and they couldn’t find any options out wide when El Tri shut down the middle. In that match, Mexico chose to just put one striker up front and have three supporting players behind him.
The biggest questions for El Tri are still their full-back positions, so it will be interesting to see how Canada can exploit those potential vulnerabilities in their semifinal matchup.
At this point, Mexico has to be the favorite because of their recent win over the U.S. Canada are still a team on the rise at this point, although that semifinal berth in Copa America, which includes the South American CONMEBOL teams, is also a major bullet point.
Whichever team emerges from that semifinal would have an excellent shot at beating an overmatched Panama side or a U.S. team still figuring out its latest identity.
^Los Angeles awaits ⌛️ pic.twitter.com/HZdchPwsmT
— Concacaf Nations League (@CNationsLeague) March 18, 2025
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