For 90 minutes, it looked like Bayern Munich was going to take a bad loss on the road in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 tie with Red Bull Salzburg. The hosts had taken the lead near the midpoint of the first half when Chukwubuike Adamu scored on a counterattack; Adamu had come on just 12 minutes in after an injury to starting striker Noah Okafor. The hosts then went into a defensive shell, and it looked like disaster for Bayern, but then Kingsley Coman showed up at the far post to send a Thomas Mueller header into the net and secure the draw, scoring a crucial away goal in the process. Now all Bayern has to do is win by a goal at home to advance – or force a scoreless draw, having the edge of that away goal. Let’s look at the second leg, coming up on Tuesday, as you plan your Champions League Odds.
UEFA Preview: Champions League Round of 16, Leg 2 (Tuesday, March 8) Bayern Munich vs Red Bull Salzburg
When: Thursday, March 8, 2022, 2:00 pm ET
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
TV: Paramount+
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: fuboTV
Soccer Odds: Bayern Munich -500 / RB Salzburg +1150 / Draw +650 / O/U 3.5
Why should you bet on Salzburg?
The good news for Salzburg is that the side knows that it can crack the Bayern defenses for a goal. Salzburg has found the back of the net in each of the last three matches with Bayern. The last time Salzburg came to Allianz Arena, their offense created more than three expected goals. In their last three matches, Salzburg has put up four goals on 6.1 goals expected, using the metrics from fotmob.com
However, the road has not been combined to Salzburg in Champions League group play. The side only created 2.2 expected goals, except for penalties, including just 1.1 against Sevilla and Lille. Salzburg has not posted a clean sheet on the road in group play, and they have permitted two expected goals per 90 minutes game in the last three meetings with Bayern and permitted 30 or more shot-creating actions in each match.
Why should you put your money on Bayern?
Bayern has posted a 2-0-1 (W-L-D) record against Salzburg in their last three meetings, and the only previous time they played at Allianz Arena, they rolled to a 3-1 win. Despite the draw in Salzburg, Bayern dominated the match statistically, possessing for more than 70% of the match. Bayern also had 38 touches in the Salzburg penalty area, the second-highest number Bayern has mustered outside the group play fixtures with Dynamo Kyiv.
At home, Bayern dominated each of their three matches in group play and posted the best expected goal differential at home in the group stage. The attack played a key role, as it never created fewer than two expected goals whie at home, but so did the defense, as Bayern permitted the second fewest home expected goals against in group play. If you take a look at Bayern’s form at home in Bundesliga play, the side has only given up points in three home fixtures so far. They have won a dozen consecutive fixtures at home on expected goals in Champions League play and have won 11 of those games in reality.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
This seems like an easy skate for Bayern, as they should dismantle a soft Salzburg away defense with their attack. Even so, Salzburg should post at least one goal. Goaltender Manuel Neuer is not available for Die Roten, and Leon Goretzka and Alphonso Davies will not patrol the back line, so look for an attack-heavy game. I predict a 3-1 win for Bayern.
UEFA Champions League Betting Odds
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