The UEFA Nations League started six years ago as a way for European national teams to get more competitive action against other European sides that played at a comparable level of quality.
Spain enters as the defending champions; France and Portugal have also won one title each in this biennial event. We’re in the middle of group play right now, which runs from September to November.
The knockout phase will begin in March as teams will play for promotion into or relegation out of League A, whose members are eligible for the title.
League Teams advance to the quarterfinals and then play a simple knockout format to determine the champion.
Going into Matchday 3, let’s take a look at some smart sports betting picks.
UEFA Nations League Matchday 3 Games Picks & Betting Lines | Soccer Odds
England -380 vs Greece +1000
When: Thursday, October 10, 2:45 pm ET
UNL Odds for Draw +450
With Greece visiting the Three Lions, there isn’t a lot of value to be had on the moneyline – at least not when it comes to picking the highly likely winner here. Interim manager Lee Carsley has led England to 2–0 wins over both Finland and Ireland. Cole Palmer has six goals and five assists combined after seven EPL starts, and with him and Harry Kane (nine goals in eight appearances for Bayern Munich), there’s plenty of offense for England to give the visitors headaches.
Greece has also started Nations League play in impressive fashion, though, stopping Finland and Ireland by a combined score of 5-0. They lead this group thanks to goal differential. Fotis Ioannidis, a striker for Panathinaikos, has three of his side’s five goals and three of his team’s nine on-target shots (out of 19 salvos overall).
Kosta Tsimikas of Liverpool and Konstantinos Mavropanos of West Ham United key the Greek back line as the team has only permitted two shots on target in Nations League group play so far. However, England’s attack is an entirely different creature from what the Greeks’ first two opponents have shown. If you want to add a parlay to what should be a reasonably secure win for England, you can get action both England to win and the game to go over 2 ½ goals at -115.
Nations League Pick: England to win AND take the over.
^Italy +295 vs Belgium -108
When: Thursday, October 10, 2:45 pm ET
UNL Odds for Draw +240
Italy lead their group after getting two wins in two matches, including a thrilling 2-1 win at Israel. The Azzurri excel because they combine discipline on the back end with smooth play when it’s time to go on the attack. They can adapt their own strategy to a variety of opponents. They had not been forecast to do well in this tournament after taking two losses in friendlies, but they are unbeaten in competitive play this time around. Likewise, they have an attacking pair that can torch back lines, as we’ve seen in their five goals so far.
Belgium fell to France, 2-0, in Matchday 2 of this Nations League. Their plan is to combine the advantages of youth with the benefits of experience. Under manager Domenico Tedesco, the Red Devils have tried to push the attack, but they have had difficulty turning chances into goals on the scoreboard. They have scored three times and permitted three goals in two Nations League play. Against France, their problems came from France’s stiff back line and their ability to push the attack line. However, Belgium has the talent to put the game away despite their edge. A win at Italy would get Belgium back in the conversation about potential champions.
Nations League Pick: Belgium to win.
^Turkey -330 vs Montenegro +830
When: Friday, October 11, 2:45 pm ET
UNL Odds for Draw +400
This match doesn’t offer a lot of value when you look at the favorite, but can Montenegro even earn a point on the road? Let’s take a look at the over/under line of 3 ½ goals. Turkey lead League B Group 4 with four points, level with Wales but ahead on goal differential. Arda Güler, a midfielder for Real Madrid, drives the bus for Turkey, while Hakan Çalhanoğlu supports him. Muhammed Kerem Akturkoglu found the back of the net three times in Turkey’s 3-1 win over Iceland.
Montenegro have only one goal in two Nations League matches, both losses, and they are in the League B Group 4 basement. They got a goal from Dirton Camaj in their 2-1 setback against Iceland. They’ve had chances to do more damage, but finishing is a major issue for them. Furthermore, they have possessed the ball for a combined 55% of both matches and have sent 32 shots, with nine ending up on target. Turkey’s talent comes from multiple first-division teams in Europe, while Montenegro will rely on Stevan Jovetić, formerly of Man City and Inter Milan, to key their attack – which can be dangerous. With Turkey capable of putting up multiple goals and Montenegro capable of finding cracks in Turkey’s back line, take the over at +180.
^Poland +420 vs Portugal -162
When: Saturday, October 12, 2:45 pm ET
UNL Odds for Draw +295
Portugal fell to France on penalties at EURO 2024, a disappointing finish for a team with designs on a much deeper run. The first two Nations League group stage matches have gone much better for Portugal, though, as they rolled to wins over Scotland and Croatia. Now they lead League A Group 1 with six points. This team has elite attacking talent, and Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo, who formerly played together for Manchester United, have combined for three of the team’s four goals in the Nations League. In those two wins, Portugal has a combined 59% possession rate and have launched 41 shots, putting 13 on frame.
Poland’s strategy has been to put the ball at the feet of striker Robert Lewandowski. They lost to Croatia, 1-0, in Matchday 1, but then they came away with a 3-2 nail-biter of a win against Scotland, thanks to two scores from the spot. However, possession has not been part of the Polish program, as they only had the ball 39% of the match against Croatia and 41% against Scotland. The Poles have permitted three goals so far in Nations League play – all by midfielders. Portugal will need maximum execution and energy to win in Warsaw, but they have shown quality in areas where Poland is vulnerable, which is one reason why these odds have shortened for Portugal since the line opened.
Nations League Pick: Portugal to win.
^Serbia +154 vs Switzerland +185
When: Saturday, October 12, 2:45 pm ET
UNL Odds for Draw +205
Serbia have just one point out of two Nations League matches, but that’s one more than the Swiss have managed to secure. Serbia sit in third with that one point and a -2 goal differential, while the Swiss are still looking for that first point with a -5 goal differential. However, Switzerland beat Serbia the last time they played at the Gradski Stadion Dubocica, 3-2.
Because you can get Serbia with plus money, it’s a smart bet. Obviously, neither team is doing all that well so far in Nations League play, but they are in front of their home fans and are playing somewhat better than the Swiss. Neither team is doing all that well on defense, so if you want to add a play for having both teams find the back of the net, that could add some value to your payout. You can find the “both teams score” at around -120 on Xbet.
^Top 10 to Win the UEFA Nations League
- Spain +380
- Portugal +470
- Germany +550
- France +550
- Italy +700
- Netherlands +1000
- Denmark +1050
- Belgium +1200
- Croatia +1600
- Serbia +5000
Time for Matchday 3🍿#NationsLeague pic.twitter.com/O9cjnDq644
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) October 10, 2024
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