Monday and Tuesday mark qualifier action at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open, and Monday also saw the release of the men’s draw. Indian Wells is the site once again for one of the sport’s iconic tournaments. One of the biggest names in men’s tennis, Novak Djokovic, will not be present, because one requirement for a visa into the United States for international visitors is vaccination against COVID-19. Djokovic remains unvaccinated, and so he withdrew from the Paribas Open. His replacement is Nikoloz Basilashvili of Georgia.
Let’s take a look at some ATP betting implications from the men’s draw.
Tennis News: ATP 1000 BNP Paribas Open Preview
The Top Half of the Draw is a Youth Movement
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz and 7-seed Holger Rune, the two highest-ranked teenagers on the ATP Tour right now, are in the top half of the draw. Alcaraz advanced to the semifinals here last year before falling to Rafael Nadal in a lengthy battle. This year, he has an 8-1 record including a championship on the clay in Buenos Aires. Rune advanced to the semifinals at Acapulco and has an 11-5 record in 2023. Lorenzo Musetti (20 years old) and Jannik Sinner (21) are also in the top half and could meet in the third round.
Expect the Americans to Have Another Strong Showing
Last year, Taylor Fritz beat Rafael Nadal in the final to become the first American to win the men’s singles title at the BNP Paribas Open since 2001, when Andre Agassi won the trophy. There are three Americans in the top 20 and ten in the top 50, so hopes are high for another win for the home country. Fritz, seeded fourth, is in the top half and could meet fellow American Ben Shelton in the second round. Tommy Paul, the 17th seed, also sits in the top half and could take on France’s Quentin Halys or American Michael Mmoh after his bye. Frances Tiafoe has the 14th seed and would either meet Aleks Kovacevic, who excelled at the University of Illinois, or UCLA star Marcos Giron in the second round. So far, there are 14 Americans in the men’s singles draw, but qualification continues and is likely to add more.
Venerable Veterans Could also Make a Splash
Dominic Thiem (2019 champion), Stan Wawrinka (2017 runner-up), Andy Murray (2009 runner-up) and Gael Monfils (two-time quarterfinalist) are all in the draw as unseeded players. Murray would see 15th-seeded Pablo Carreno Busta in the second round if he wins. Wawrinka gets a qualifier in the first round and could face Miomir Kecmanovic, the 26th seed, in the second round. Monfils is appearing in his first tournament since August because of injury, and he could meet third-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. Thiem has not placed at Indian Wells since he won the championship in 2019, and he has drawn Adrian Mannarino in the first round.
Can Carlos Alcaraz Turn a Top Seed into a Title?
Here is Alcaraz’s projected path, assuming that upsets don’t happen to him (or his projected competition) along the way.
First Round: Bye
Second Round: Brandon Holt (or Qualifier)
Third Round: 31-seed Tallon Griekspoor
Round of 16: 15-seed Pablo Carreno Busta
Quarterfinals: 8-seed Felix Auger-Aliassime or 9-seed Hubert Hurkacz
Semifinals: 4-seed Taylor Fritz or 7-seed Holger Rune
Finals: 2-seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3-seed Casper Ruud, or 5-seed Daniil Medvedev
How Far Can Daniil Medvedev Run his Winning Streak?
Medvedev enters the tournament riding a 14-match winning streak. His career record at Indian Wells is 6-5, and he has never advanced past the Round of 16. He has 19 total wins in ATP and three titles so far this season, and both numbers lead the tour. Bet on him to push past the Round of 16 and even rattle Ruud in the quarters or Tsitsipas in the semis.
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