Betting Australian Open: Learner Tien, a 19-year-old from Irvine, California, won the first two sets of his second-round match with fifth-seeded and former world #1 Daniil Medvedev.
The qualifier almost saw that lead turn into an epic collapse, as his 6-3, 7-6(4) performance in the first two sets was followed by a 6-7(8) loss in the third set and then a 1-6 debacle in the fourth.
Rather than fall off the table altogether, though, Tien gathered himself and prevailed in the fifth, 7-6(7), winning in four hours and 49 minutes – just before 3:00 am local time.
The lefty had a terrific junior career, getting to the boys’ singles finals at the U.S. Open and the Australian Open in 2023. In that final at Flushing Meadows, he lost to Joao Fonseca, who also beat him in the 2024 NextGen ATP Finals.
Betting Australian Open 2025: How to, Analysis & Top Players to Follow
In qualifying for the Australian Open, he won all three matches and then won his Grand Slam main-draw debut over Camilo Ugo Carabelli to get a chance at Medvedev.
After an injury-plagued 2024, Medvedev delayed the start of his 2025 campaign to welcome his second child, and his rust has been apparent in Melbourne.
In the first round, he was down two sets to one against Thai wild card Kasidit Samrej, and he also started slowly against Tien, dropping the first five games of the match.
Tien’s next opponent is Frenchman Corentin Moutet, who will look to stop an American qualifier for the second match in a row after he beat Mitchell Krueger in four sets.
If you plan to include the rest of the Australian Open in your sports betting, read on to get some pointers.
^Novak Djokovic won one of the best points of the year.
— Danny 🐊 (@DjokovicFan_) January 17, 2025
How is he 37 years old? 🤯pic.twitter.com/JSCZXIl45I
What are the betting markets?
Just about every major sportsbook offers action on the Australian Open. As one of the four Grand Slam tournaments in professional tennis, this event will feature just about all of the signature players in the sport. You can make bets on money line odds for individual matches as well as futures props. Many sportsbooks also offer live betting for the Grand Slam events, which means as the match goes on, you can take advantage of shifting odds for one player or the other to win.
If you’d been following the Tien-Medvedev match, you would have seen the money line move significantly over the first two sets in Tien’s favor – and then switch back to Medvedev’s, particularly during the fourth set. Just like in other sports, live betting helps you enjoy the suspense of a back-and-forth match and leverage odds that move in a direction that may help you make even more money off a showdown – or hedge bets that don’t seem like they’re going to pay off as things progress.
^What are the most common wagers that bettors make?
You can wager on outcomes from individual matches, and you can also make futures wagers about the eventual winner of the tournament. Within individual matches, you can also make picks on such props as how many sets it will take a particular player to win a match. In some cases, you can bet against the spread. In tennis, this is known as “set betting” and is generally set at +/- 1.5 or 2.5 sets. You can get even more granular, betting on how many games a match will last or how many games each player will win, known as “game spread betting.” At the player level, there is a wide variety of available props. Which player in a match will have more aces? Which will have more double faults?
^How does set betting work?
At the Australian Open, women’s matches are best-of-three sets, and men’s matches are best-of-five. With most three-set matches, the line is +/-1.5 sets. So if the favorite is going to cover, they have to win in straight sets, while the underdog has to win at least one set for your bet to cover. With five-set matches, the line will either be +/- 1.5 or 2.5 sets, depending on how big of a spread is involved. With a +/- 2.5 set line, the favorite has to win in straight sets to cover while the underdog only needs to win one set to cover. Given the lack of parity that can show up in matches, set betting can help you take advantage of a clear mismatch and get slightly better wagering value.
^How does game spread betting work?
Let’s say that Carlos Alcaraz is playing Casper Ruud, and Alcaraz comes with a -3.5 spread on games betting. That means Alcaraz needs to win at least four more games than Ruud over the course of the match. If the match ends 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, then Alcaraz would have won 18 games while Ruud would have won just nine, and Alcaraz would cover easily. However, if the match goes 6-4, 7-6(6), 6-7(3), 1-6, 7-6(8), then Alcaraz would have won 27 games while Ruud won 29. So Alcaraz advances, but Ruud covers. So if you think you’re looking at a back-and-forth match, picking the underdog to cover can pay off.
^Betting Australian Open Lines provided by Xbet
Key factors to consider when betting on the Australian Open
The Australian Open is a hardcourt tournament – just like the U.S. Open. One factor that makes tennis unique is that it is played on three fairly different surfaces – hardcourt, clay and grass. Some players dominate some surfaces more than others, so paying attention to which players tend to thrive with hardcourt tennis will be important. Hardcourt surfaces offer a happy medium between the speed of grass and the slow slog of clay.
The Rankings
Just looking at a player’s seeding or professional ranking can be misleading. It can take a while for poor results to bring a player’s ranking (and seeding) down, and different Grand Slam events use slightly different measures to determine their seeding. You’ll also want to look at how players have done recently and whether they’ve come back from injury.
For example, while Learner Tien’s win over Daniil Medvedev was a surprising upset, understanding that Medvedev was coming back from both an extended delay and from a year in which injuries had hampered him would have helped savvy bettors understand that an upset was likely brewing. The difficulties that Medvedev had in the first round would have provided a further clue. Research into the quality of Learner Tien’s play in 2023 and 2024, as well as a quick look at his run through qualifying and the first round, might well have indicated that taking Tien to win (or at least cover the set spread) was a smart bet.
Rivalries
You’ll also want to check how players have fared against one another in the past. The further you get into a bracket, if form holds, you should have seeded players squaring off, and as time goes by, the top players get more and more cracks at one another. In scenarios where you have an unseeded (or a low seed) against a high seed, take a look to see if they’ve played each other in the past few years.
A juniors result from, say, ten years ago won’t do much for you, but if they met in the same tournament last year and the underdog pushed the favorite to five sets, take a look at both players’ run through that tournament to see if there might be something to help you in your wagering choice. Sometimes there are just some tennis matchups that bedevil the favorite, time and time again.
^How to bet on futures and prop bets during the Australian Open
Just like with the other major sports, betting on the Australian Open involves logging into your sportsbook of choice, finding the wagers you want to pursue, and then locking them in after you’ve done your research. Here are some interesting bets to consider over the weekend.
Holger Rune (-1.5 sets) over Miomir Kecmanovic
Holger Rune could be looking at a breakthrough 2025. He has returned to the coach that brought him to some of the top moments in his early career. He did struggle to beat Zhizhen Zhang in the opening round, but Zhang is a tough player who has already picked up some solid wins. After that, Rune had a much better showing against Matteo Berrettini.
Holger Rune
There are still some times when Rune looks to rely on his talent as opposed to making sound decisions, but he is still just 21 years old and still growing. Rune wisely focused on targeting Berrettini’s Achilles heel – his backhand. He also did a solid job moving to get to Berrettini’s booming forehands. Rune really excelled in returning Berrettini’s big serves. In the past, he’s tried to get on top of serves and deliver forehand winners when he would have done better just to get the ball back and then use the ensuing rally to get the points. Understanding that lesson will help him significantly.
Miomir Kecmanovic
Given these improvements, it’s hard to see Kecmanovic pushing this match past four sets. Kecmanovic plays all over the court like Rune, and he doesn’t have any particularly strong weapons. He also has more of a defensive approach than Rune, so Rune should be able to drive the rhythm. Kecmanovic did show some power against Hubert Hurkacz in the second round, but his baseline shots aren’t big enough to overpower Rune. If we consider motivation, Rune has spent the last two years watching Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner develop from being his rivals to dominating the sport, and now Joao Fonseca looks poised to pass him by as well. I expect him to take advantage of the opportunity to use the Australian Open to make a statement, and if that’s going to happen, he needs to get by Kecmanovic and then deal with Sinner in the fourth round.
Lorenzo Musetti (+128) over Ben Shelton
Shelton rolled over Brandon Nakashima 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5 in the first round, neutralizing Nakashima’s mammoth serve well enough to advance with just one tiebreaker. He then stopped Pablo Carreno Busta in four sets in the second round, and the only set that he lost went to a tiebreaker. Musetti needed four sets to get by Matteo Arnaldi in the first round, but then he beat Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3), 7-6(6), 6-2.
Both Musetti and Shelton have gotten to the third round by beating talented opposition. Musetti is the slight underdog here, but he played better in the biggest tournaments in 2024, particularly in the summer.
Ben Shelton
Shelton does have a booming serve and can also deliver heavy shots from the baseline. He also has the athleticism to move to balls all over the court, but Musetti beat him 6-4, 7-6(5) in Miami last year – another hardcourt tournament with fast surfaces like what we see in Melbourne. Musetti also takes a more varied approach from the baseline, mixing in slower shots with big blasts, keeping his opponent guessing. Shelton is still learning how to get the edge in big matches. This is going to be a close match, so I’m taking the value.
^Fired up 🔥
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 17, 2025
Check out the best winning moments from Day 6️⃣
Luzhou Laojiao • #WinningMoments • #luzhoulaojiao • #AusOpen • #AO2025 • @wwos • @espn • @eurosport • @wowowtennis pic.twitter.com/dlkGfnf93u
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