The ATP Tour moves to the home of the 1992 Summer Olympics with the Barcelona Open this weekend, as the clay court season continues. In this tournament, 14 of the last 16 winners have come from Spain, with Kei Nishikori, who won in both 2014 and 2015, as the lone exception. Carlos Moya won in 2003, and then Tommy Robredo won in 2004. Rafael Nadal won from 2005-2009, 2011-2013 and 2016-2018, with Fernando Verdasco winning in 2010. For our tennis sports betting picks of the week in tennis, we will give you a preview of the Barcelona Open, with the odds for each player as well as our thoughts on some of the contenders.
Top Tennis Betting Picks of the Week – April 22nd Edition
Full draw #bcnopenbs pic.twitter.com/mgNzRv5EAT
— 井蛙堂 (@seiadoumogera) April 20, 2019
Men’s Singles Odds
- Rafael Nadal -165
- Dominic Thiem +600
- Alexander Zverev +800
- Daniil Medvedev +1800
- Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori +2200
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +2500
- Karen Khachanov +3300
- David Goffin +4000
- Denis Shapovalov, Gilles Simon +5000
In the last 22 years, the final of the Barcelona Open men’s singles has featured at least one Spanish player except for 2014, when Nishikori took on Santiago Giraldo, from Colombia, and won 6-2, 6-2. During that 22-year time span, none of the finals have featured two Spaniards. Overall, 30 of the 44 participants in those 22 finals came from Spain — more than two-thirds.
Rafael Nadal is the heavy favorite not just because of his dominance in this event but because of his dominance on clay. However, he did just lose to Fabio Fognini of Italy at the Monte-Carlo Masters, falling in the semifinals, so it is possible to solve Nadal, even on clay. Before that setback, he had not dropped a set at Monte Carlo. He did trail, 5-1, in the first set in the quarterfinals against Guido Pella from Argentina, but he rallied to win, 7-6 (7-1) in that set. At Monte Carlo, he had won 18 straight matches and 25 straight sets. He has played in 12 finals at Monte Carlo and has won 11 titles, a career record. In Barcelona, Nadal holds tournament records for matches won (58) and titles (11). So despite the lack of value, Nadal is definitely someone to consider.
What about Kei Nishikori? He offers some value despite being the only non-Spaniard to win here in recent years. After winning in 2014 and 2015, he made it to the 2016 final, losing to Nadal, 6-4, 7-5. He was the second seed in 2017 but had to withdraw due to a wrist injury, and in the 2018 tournament, an injury to his right calf forced him to retire from a match in the second round against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez from Spain. Nishikori is 0-4 lifetime against Nadal on clay, but he has played Nadal hard. They have met at the finals in the Madrid Open in 2014 and the Monte-Carlo Masters in 2018. At Monte-Carlo last year, Nishikori took a set from Nadal.
As far as dark horses go, you can’t ignore Fognini after that result in the Monte-Carlo Masters. Dominic Thiem from Austria and Stefanos Tsitsipas from Greece were the losing finalists the last two years, and they are in the bracket. David Goffin from Belgium made the semifinals last year. Alexander Zverev from Germany is ranked third in the world despite a record of just 10-6 this season. Even so, putting a lot of money on dark horses isn’t advisable here. The lowest seed to win at Barcelona since 2005 has been the fifth seed, when Verdasco pulled it off in 2010. Nadal could be a little off, though, as he showed against Fognini, so adding some dark horses (although not too dark) could pay off. Take a hard look at Nishikori, Thiem and Tsitsipas as you consider who to add to your card.
